Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 30/9/2024 11:51

A gap down from the open and a retrace to 5790 which is holding.

AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 30/9/2024 11:37

Estimated damage in the southern USA due to the hurricane $95-110 Bln

Sunbelt will no doubt be supplying pumps

[bracke] 27/9/2024 18:24

Good day palwing

Yes I think it's fair to say it was a zoom. There was no 'messing' it was straight up from the off.

Monday will be the test. Whether it pushes on further or retraces to test 5790. The RSI is high so bear that in mind.

AHT DAILY

[palwing32] 27/9/2024 15:39

Was that a zoom?

[bracke] 26/9/2024 10:47

An engulfing candle yesterday and a gap up today but resisted at a long standing resistance zone (5790). Another gap or zoom required to overcome the resistance.

AHT WEEKY

[bracke] 24/9/2024 16:09

Good day disc0

That completes the filling of the 'near' gaps. The gaps yet to be filled are at :

2889, 5246, 6036, 6200, 6330.

2889 is unlikely ever to be filled barring some sort of catastrophe. The top three have a high probability of filling at some point. Which leaves 5246 which would be my selection for the next one to fill.

As to the lottery numbers, yes I have those, they are between 1 and 59 hope that helps.

Regards to Dracula.

[disc0dave46] 24/9/2024 12:52

Good day Mr bGap 5570 filled not too long after your post, if you have the lottery numbers Dracula and I would be for ever grateful :)

[bracke] 24/9/2024 11:02

The share price gapped up on opening to fill yesterdays gap at 5626. Then dropped bac but has not yet filled todays gap at 5570.

[bracke] 23/9/2024 12:29

A gap down at the open from 5626 to fill the gap at 5540 to complete the cycle back from the FED induced spike and rest on the 50% FIB at 5532.

AHT DAILY

[bracke] 21/9/2024 12:35

The percentages quoted for gap fills likely include the larger gaps that usually occur at the open plus the very small gaps that occur during the trading day.

I only concern myself with the larger gaps. You would need to be 'scalping' to pick up the small gaps during the trading day.
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Viewing the chart it will be seen that the share price closed right on the previous resistance at 5630 the previous major high. (what was resistance becomes support and vice versa).

The drop from Thursday was likely profit taking. The question now is will there be sufficient bargain hunters to take it back up. I suspect not.

The RSI suggests there is the probability of further downside before the bargain hunters emerge.


AHT DAILY

[fenners66] 20/9/2024 18:39

75.2% of open down gaps - looks like a significant trading advantage may be worth trying - provided they are common gaps.

What % are common gaps ?

Genuine question.


But
let me guess...... 66% ?

see what I did there ?

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2024 17:44

Good day Mr bThanks for info. According to AI:Common gaps, also known as trading gaps or area gaps, are usually filled fairly quickly, typically within a couple of days. Here are some other details about common gaps: Percentage of closed gaps: 68.2% of up open gaps and 75.2% of down open gaps are closed within the same trading session. Gap filling within a day: Gaps get filled within a day about 5% of the time. Gap filling over time: In more than half of the observed cases, the stocks' prices reverted to their original levels within a 45-day period. Causes: Common gaps are usually uneventful and can be caused by a stock going ex-dividend when the trading volume is low. Appearance: Common gaps usually appear in a trading range or congestion area. Analytical insight: Common gaps are relatively small, normal, and somewhat regular events in the price action of an asset, so they tend to provide no real analytical insight.

[bracke] 20/9/2024 14:33

Good day disco

There are more common gaps than the others and they usually get filled quicker. Most common gaps get filled but as I posted those at the low extremes may not do so.

I am unaware of statistical analysis of gap filling.

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2024 11:23

Re post 63157And if Harris gets in then a possible 7% increase to corporation tax.

[fenners66] 20/9/2024 07:11

This is from the DM and their science section is notoriously unreliable ...but

A 2014 study looked by the union of concerned scientists looked at 52 sea level indicators in communities across the US.

It found tidal flooding will dramatically increase in many East and Gulf Coast locations, based on a conservative estimate of predicted sea level increases based on current data.

The results showed that most of these communities will experience a steep increase in the number and severity of tidal flooding events over the coming decades.
By 2030, more than half of the 52 communities studied are projected to experience, on average, at least 24 tidal floods per year in exposed areas, assuming moderate sea level rise projections. Twenty of these communities could see a tripling or more in tidal flooding events.

The mid-Atlantic coast is expected to see some of the greatest increases in flood frequency. Places such as Annapolis, Maryland and Washington, DC can expect more than 150 tidal floods a year, and several locations in New Jersey could see 80 tidal floods or more.


So either the US goes and spends money on coastal defences or Sunbelt buys more pumps....

[fenners66] 20/9/2024 06:37

Just took a look to see if I can put a number to the expected Interest savings based on the Fed 0.5% rate cut.

Last accounts had :

First priority senior secured bank debt $ 1859.1 m

So a years saving on that if passed through (i imagine its the floating rate part) = 9.3m a year

Add in a forecast 0.5 % by the year end and you have $18.6m for calendar year 2025 thats only about 1.1% of last years profit but its a start.

The forecast is also for another 1% Fed rate reduction for next year - adding another $18.6m for 2026 but also there
is the lowest senior note debt due to be redeemed by August 2026 of $548m at 1.5%
Most likely that is not going to run to term and be repaid , - unless some common sense takes over -waiting until the due date may even yield a lower Fed rate; so it would have been looking at being replaced at the latest rate or equivalent - which was 5.8% 2034.

But with 2% off (or more if they wait) the Fed rate could this instead get done for 3.8%?

So likely its going to cost a lot more than current financing - but a 2% saving vs current forcast
i.e. another $11m saving a year.

So by 2026-27 a marginally lower actual interest cost (all other things being equal) - but $48.2m less than it would have been without rate cuts.

[disc0dave46] 19/9/2024 20:09

Good evening Mr bThanks for passing your expert knowledge, as always.I was just curious as to whether or not there's been any statistical analysis on gaps actually being filled. I'd assume the percentage is higher for common gaps than any of the others, but not all gaps are filled all the time, even common gaps?.I will do more research on gap filling this evening.....but don't tell the other half!.PS Mr Powell is still a numpty!

[disc0dave46] 19/9/2024 20:02

Hi crookesEach to their own, absolutely nothing wrong with taking some profit and leaving the rest to ride IMO.So if I double bag a stock and sell half are you saying that's a strategy that makes no sense?. Personally what anyone decides to do with their money is 100% up to them.

[crookes243] 19/9/2024 19:32

Tax sure , depends on the amount we are talking about also. I am very old and 95 % of my shares are in an ISA.

[fenners66] 19/9/2024 19:16

But of course there may be tax to mitigate and that brings a whole new slant

[crookes243] 19/9/2024 18:25

Perfido, not trying to embarrass you but one of my investment hates is the one about selling a portion of your holding when you think it’s high. So to reduce the risk you sell some and let the other ride . I recall you sold a quarter of your holding in AHT at over £64 using this argument. I remarked at the time such a strategy makes no sense to the private investor,either you’re all in or all out. These ‘risk ‘ reducing strategies are for the professional managers who earn a salary. I know it’s not a common position that I hold.
So you sold out at £57 where if you had sold all your holding at £64 you would be a bit richer.
I’m still all in ( and I bought at £1) and still see more upside,but when I sell I will sell all my holding.

[bracke] 19/9/2024 16:55

disc0

My gap filling observations are mostly of the FTSE 100, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the DOW 30 plus AHT

The indices will eventually fill all the gaps to the upside but there are some gaps to the low side that will probably never fill.

The indices continually rise over time so will fill all the upside gaps but gaps opened at the top followed by a large fall may not fill for 1-4 years so using the gaps as a sure fired way of trading has its risks !

Those gaps formed at the end of a major fall may never be revisited.


Gaps are just part of TA and should not be used on their own but in conjunction with whatever an analyst has found to be most useful.

There are four main types of gap - Common, Breakaway, Runaway and Exhaustion.

I will let you look them up.

Common Gaps are the most likely to be filled first. I think of them as the every day gaps.

The other three come into play when the share price begins to approach them. The market likes to fill its gaps so will often use gaps as a target to be hit.

You are probably thinking about the two latest AHT gaps at 5346 and 5540. 5346 was the product of 'rate cut to come' and 5540 the product of 'rate cut delivered'

Look at the Tuesday candle. It gapped up and closed at the high with minimal upper wick i.e. no weakness. Wednesday was a pensive holding day and today (Thursday) a reaction to the rate cut.

My view is that 5540 is a Breakaway but as I mentioned in my earlier post it is held at a strong resistance zone. I suspect it may require another gap or a zoom to push it over resistance.

I am sure 5346 and 5540 will both be filled at some point. They are not so low that the share price is unlikely to revisit them.

AHT DAILY

[disc0dave46] 19/9/2024 13:12

Berenberg initiated coverage of equipment rental firm Ashtead on Thursday with a 'buy' rating and 7,000p price target.

[perfido] 19/9/2024 12:48

Sold the last of my AHT holding at 57.42 - the first time I haven't had an AHT holding in my portfolio since August 1997!

I wish the remaining AHT shareholders the best of luck, but I won't be back in unless the share price falls and creates an opportunity too good to resist :-)

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