Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[eaglehaslanded] 14/3/2024 18:08

This proactive thing, is it an investor meeting or a one to one interview with Marshall?

[rockyride] 14/3/2024 15:32

MT - all tipsters seem to be positive on POO this year - even Malcy. However, bit disappointing on the US inflation front. We need ours ASAP to see BOE base rate to get back towards a new normal level of circa 3%:-The inventory stats from the EIA caused the primary increase in oil prices yesterday, whilst the crude draw was only 1.536m barrels it was higher than expected and after the API meant that it headed below the 5 year average. But with refinery runs of 86.8%, up 1.9% on the week the draw of 5.7m b's in gasoline was the talking point in the announcement. With some shortage in products internationally including a leakage in the gasoline cracker at the huge Port Arthur refinery markets shivered.Interestingly with the Ukraine hitting two Russian refineries with drones taking out product in an already tight market knocked on to crude oil. Finally, rumours abound that the IEA, notably the doves of the sector are thought to be about to eat some humble pie by saying that oil markets face supply deficits all this year on the back of Opec+ cuts and increases in global demand. You couldn't make it up. (Well I could). Breaking news, the US inflation number, expected to be 0.3% on the month turns out to be 0.6%, a bit of a horror and the y/y is 1.6% vs a whisper of 1.2%.

[mount teide] 14/3/2024 14:56

Brent has averaged circa $85/bbl during the last 5 weeks, and $82.50 YTD.

This week, even the uber bear US EIA has increased its 2024 average Brent price forecast by $4/bbl to $87.

Perfect timing for AXL to target a doubling of production from its 15 well drilling programme during the remaining 9 months of the year.

U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2024

[rockyride] 14/3/2024 13:52

The Proactive event will not be live streamed, however there will be a recording available that we will share with you post-event.

[upwego] 14/3/2024 12:43

News Got to be soon :) RoyalA

[lexion] 14/3/2024 11:09

Any one going to Proactive tonight? Any feedback will be great ?

[royalalbert] 14/3/2024 09:03

Thought we would have had a RNS seeing management is in town.

[royalalbert] 14/3/2024 09:01

Upwego from the Updated Corporate Presentation 11/03, "CN-5 and CN-6 imminent"

[upwego] 14/3/2024 08:51

CN-5 Well

The CN-5 well was spud on February 8, 2024 to test the Carrizales Noroeste prospect and reached total depth of 9,050 feet true vertical depth on February 14, 2024. Initial interpretation of the logging of this well, drilled to the west of the known pool boundary, shows 45 feet of Ubaque oil pay to base of sand. The reservoir demonstrates consistent 25% porosity and 5 Darcy permeability. CN-5 has confirmed that there is a stratigraphic component to the trapping mechanism in the Ubaque reservoir as it extends to the west and is therefore expected to add significantly to the existing Ubaque oil reserves. The Company expects to complete the well for production over the next few weeks.

Maybe the news on CN-5 could be any day now or tied in with the reserves report update, excited about this 45 feet of pay should be a good producer?

[here and there] 14/3/2024 08:50

Proactive presentation tonight in London. Video normally is released a few days later.

[chessman2] 13/3/2024 20:44

Yes, AXL is looking better in both markets and I’m optimistic that London will continue to climb as well.

AXL is certainly looking better and once the next news is announced I expect the share price to increase even further.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 20:24

Up to 45c in Canada and the full ask being paid.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 17:17

Albeit low volume today, for the first time in a while, sells outweighed buys. But post close, good to see a small UT and 2 x O trades at 26p. Bodes well for coming sessions, especially with good news expected soon. Bought my last few here today and thats me now fully locked and loaded. No more buys from me and no sells until at least a 3 bag from today's close!

[78steve] 13/3/2024 12:02

That will buck the trend usually down on news

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 11:28

ATB with your continued treatment MT. I just attempt to put all the pieces of financial data together to work out the most accurate value proposition I can.

A lot of different metrics get conflated and used incorrectly in comparisons on these boards in my view.

For me we need to know:

1) Max realistic sustainable production rate over field life, combined with
2) Reserve life
3) Long-term decline rates and/or sustaining capex required for (1)
4) Post-tax, capex, admin etc 'free cash flow' generation per annum based on (1) and (3) given some assumption on average oil price and operating costs

We can then try to model a DCF and work out today's value of all that - then apply our own investor risk discount to that price and that's where we should be buying up to!

The more drills we do, the more data we get and we revise expectations upwards (hopefully!). Right now we believe 10k bopd is achievable (but is it sustainable?) we have some growing reserves (what we will we top out at?) we have a feel for current drill costs for growth (what will be required to offset declines long-term?) we have a figure of $2.5m net cash flow at present - we are not sure what this will be when paying full tax and at max production, but we can make a guess.. we are unhedged, so we hope oil rises, or at least stays around $80 - a healthy price.

We have part of the picture and it says AXL has great potential. We'll know a lot more in a couple of months!

[mount teide] 13/3/2024 11:06

KS - understand entirely. Comment was not in any way meant as a criticism of professional accountants like yourself - a group of people i relied on hugely when running port and shipping company businesses. With respect to equity investing, most of my investments are made on the basis of identifying businesses with very strong fundamentals at an attractive entry price, run by a CEO with a good track record of success in the sector. And then often averaging up when the investment case/growth strengthens faster than the value being attributed to it by the market. Would not concern yourself about the downticks - If you put your head above the parapet on Advfn they are par for the course. I often get them simply for expressing a long held view, like being an advocate of buy and hold investing - despite it having proved the test of time, it’s now considered deeply unfashionable by a very sizeable minority of the equity investment community. Sent from my phone while undergoing the latest round of treatment - so apologies if it reads like one long rambling sentence!

[royalalbert] 13/3/2024 11:03

It's only blues who can down tick, keep up the good work KS.

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:55

Thanks - and apologies for clogging up the board. Clearly I got out of bed on the wrong side this morning..

[chessman2] 13/3/2024 10:27

KS, be assured that your input here is much appreciated as are the informative posts from the other bulletin posters

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:23

How about a high-FIVE?

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:10

Three in a row?

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 09:57

Thanks for the down tick on that facetious post - can I get another here, please? :)

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 09:53

^^ and this is where us accountants (me) and non-accountants differ! :)