Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[tag57] 19/3/2024 19:01

Latest pad update
hxxps://x.com/corp_arrow/status/1770150521019503029?s=46

[mount teide] 19/3/2024 15:15

Infinity Investment - Oil Market Update - 19th March 2024

"Indian refiners are growing increasingly wary of Russian oil for fear of getting caught in sanctions' crosshairs, only Chinese buyers seem to be left to purchase large volumes of Russian oil.

China is already on track to import 379,000 bpd of Sokol this March, a record volume and over three times February's levels. Meanwhile, imports of ESPO are expected to be at 882,000 bpd this month, the highest since January 2023, according to Kpler.

Overall, China might be importing 1.7 Mn bpd of Russian crude. Yet, it remains unclear how much of these volumes will end up with actual buyers and how much will be discharged into bonded storage, amid reported hesitation from Chinese banks to be involved in the trade in light of the Western sanctions.

This comes as China is expected to have worked through some of its oil inventories after processing a record amount of crude at the start of the year as refiners ramped up
operations to meet holiday demand. The volume of oil processed in January and February was 118.76 Mn T, or 14.51 Mn bpd, an all-time high and 3 per cent more than the same period last year, government data released on Monday shows.

China's fuel demand jumped as people travelled for the Lunar New Year holiday that started mid-February. Trips in private vehicles soared, with expressway passenger volumes 54 per cent higher than 2019 levels, while airlines saw 19 per cent more people than the pre- pandemic peak, and apparent oil demand in January-February gained 6.1 per cent to 14.36 Mn bpd, according to Bloomberg.

With early 2024 Chinese economic data beating expectations, hopes remain high for at least a buoyant remainder of the year for Chinese oil demand, as the global manufacturing cycle keeps turning higher and some of the major importers are set to rebound from the second half of the year, if not earlier. This should at least set a floor to crude consumption.'

[chessman2] 19/3/2024 15:04

Have to say the posts here are always interesting and informative.

News should soon be due and I’m guessing that holders will then be even happier.

[king suarez] 19/3/2024 14:51

"Do we sell at 10k production, probably next year, or stay on n for another 3 to 5 years and initiate a decent distribution?"

I suspect that comes down to a) what price can be negotiated for a sale b) how quickly management want their pay-off c) whether management have another potential project lined up to recycle (their) cash into?

Obviously(?) as shareholders we would want whatever distribution maximises total returns - if no suitable offer then we might enjoy a couple of years of juicy dividends before sale. There is always the risk of the oil price turning against us, so maybe management can get a big chunk of production hedged soon whilst the oil price is favourable - that could help the sale valuation.

No doubt Canacol as the main shareholder will have a major say when the time for sale comes. MA has referred to 3.5 x cash flow being a reasonable sector average for valuation - and I think we would all be very happy with that if/when 10k bopd is achieved!

It's also a possibility that we might see a swap deal where we are acquired by a bigger operator for equity in their company instead of an outright purchase of our shareholdings?

[rockyride] 19/3/2024 14:01

I had a message saying it would be sent to me yesterday but nothing came. I chased this up a short while ago.

[the_gold_mine] 19/3/2024 13:56

Any sign of the video from last week's Investors presentation in London?

[11_percent] 18/3/2024 10:21

Yup....the buys just keep rolling in.

[upwego] 18/3/2024 09:57

not much stock out there could see a big squeeze on the right update!

[royalalbert] 18/3/2024 09:45

Looks like people taking positions before the news.

[mount teide] 17/3/2024 13:48

Interesting to note that Colombian Independent GeoPark state in their 2023 Year-End O&G Reserves Report, the improved recovery they're achieving from the horizontal wells drilled in the Llanos 34 Block has added to the 2P reserves.

[evelok] 16/3/2024 23:55

40 million barrels oil in place. The recovery factor, according to MA, is heading towards ~35% in these fields. My understanding is that we can expect ~14~ mill to be recoverable? With lots of unknowns....

Main thing here, every reason to believe we have found a large oil pool in CN which can underpin a sales value multiples of todays mcap.

[jailbird] 16/3/2024 21:44

EHL long life of wells can only be good for the valuation of when the assets get sold

[eaglehaslanded] 16/3/2024 18:03

Upwego Looking good yes, and golden cross coming in a week or two, MA50 will cross upwards through MA200. Bright future coming

[upwego] 16/3/2024 17:50

The chart looks beautiful may I say.

[buffythebuffoon] 16/3/2024 16:18

M3, The maths are roughly right, but one must remember there will be a decline of course which will accelerate as time passes. I assume there is some sort of rule of thumb given the geological characteristics for want of a better term that leads to the date that Joe quotes. We’ll be long gone, so that’s a figure of relevance for the buyer.

Buffy

[eaglehaslanded] 15/3/2024 17:56

M3Joe told me that the wells can produce until 2042, imo

[moonshot3] 15/3/2024 17:45

Assuming there are 40m bbls in place in CN, if my Maths is correct that's about 11 years worth of drilling at 10,000 bbls / day.

Reserves report this March will be interesting but report next year will hopefully make even better reading!

[eaglehaslanded] 15/3/2024 17:30

MTThanks for that old interview, really useful in retrospect.

[rockyride] 15/3/2024 16:30

Yeah and I lied - LOL but after MA video and comments I added another 38,798 today but at least it was still below my 26p cut off price. Hopefully reserves report within next 9 trading days and CN5 results soon and SPUD date for CN6. Good WE to all and GL.

[jailbird] 15/3/2024 16:14

Interestingly Being offered over mid price for 100k+One of the best stocks to be in right now

[moonshot3] 15/3/2024 15:47

Thanks Eagle, very helpful. My concern was that there might be a hold up for "political reasons" but that does not seem to be the case. Excited by the HZ drilling prospects like most investors on here.

[royalalbert] 15/3/2024 14:18

KS that's probably the best way to look at it,

"So current market cap is £73m ($93m USD) / 1.5 = $62m. Suggests he might be forecasting $60m+ FCF/annum after this 2024 drill campaign?"

Very hard to put a FCF over a period of time (year) which has many variables. If we reach our target at the end of the year I'll be very happy.

[kaos3] 15/3/2024 12:19

ks - extremely good q

mt - thnx

[king suarez] 15/3/2024 10:55

RR - MAs words were "when we look at FORWARD LOOKING cash flow multiple, we're trading at far less than 2 x cash flow".

My guess is 'foward looking cash flow' might be 12 months time? and 'far less than 2x' may be 1.5?

So current market cap is £73m ($93m USD) / 1.5 = $62m. Suggests he might be forecasting $60m+ FCF/annum after this 2024 drill campaign?

He's talked about a sector historic average valuation of between 3 (low) and 5 (high) x cash flow. So suggest 3.5 as 'fair'.

3.5 x $62m = $217m or c60p - with room for another 50-100% during 2025 (getting towards 10k) and even more if/when OP extension comes?