Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[rckillco1] 22/3/2024 16:57

From the Canacol conference call a possible disposition of their AXL shares to offset their debt...this was passed to me by a CNE holder so I did not hear it first hand..makes sense when you look at CNE financials.

[lexion] 22/3/2024 14:27

MA was pretty bullish in last interview of being able to drill 5 HZ this year If anyone can it's ARROW Exploration based on last year's drilling record GLA

[swanvesta] 22/3/2024 13:59

Pastybap, check out p20 of the March presentation. First horizontal Q2, two more later in the year - perhaps one in each of Q3 and Q4? The map shows another 2 wells that are contingent on results from the first, but I don't think they'd have time to drill them this year.

[rockyride] 22/3/2024 12:51

YE 2024 base case for me:-6,400boepd$13m cash in bank287m shares$0 debt20m 2P$180m market cap

[pastybap] 22/3/2024 12:46

The recent proactive interview he mentioned completing 5 horizontal wells by year end. Then there are the two CN wells to be completed. That on top of other planned wells, and even taking declines into account, I wouldnt be surprised if we are looking at 8k+ by year end. I am still setting by expectations at 6k though, and considering anything else as a bonus.

[swanvesta] 22/3/2024 12:34

I was remembering the recent Crux interview. Here's the relevant bit:


MT, I appreciate your pointer to that page of the presentation. Those 3 horizontals for this year are predicted to go on at ~1k average (net), which is indeed roughly 3x their CN verticals. Still quite a way to 10k bopd? And decline looks to be 30%+ pa, which has to be taken into account for all production, along with potential delays.

[mount teide] 22/3/2024 11:56

swanvesta - I also would be entirely happy with a further doubling of production in 2024. However, should the high impact horizontal well programme deliver initial production results remotely close to that achieved elsewhere across the Llanos Basin - circa three times that of vertical wells - then AXL could well be closer to 10k bopd by year end than 6,400 bopd.


Latest Presentation - Carrizales Norte C7 Potential

'Superior reservoir characteristics and prudent reservoir management results in significantly lower decline rates and higher EUR relative to other C7 wells in the basin.'

There is a useful chart on page 22, detailing how the Tapir Block C7 wells are typically producing after 1 year, an average of circa 500 bopd more than typical C7 wells from offsetting blocks elsewhere in the Llanos Basin.

[swanvesta] 22/3/2024 11:48

Correcting mis-statement in previous post: Analysts do have 4500-5000 for average 2024 production though, so must be expecting 6000+ bopd exit rate.

[swanvesta] 22/3/2024 11:31

"To be honest I will be more than happy if they hit the target MA stated i.e doubling of production 6400bopd end 24. Anymore will be a bonus for all of us."

Where did MA target 6400 bopd end 2024? As I recall, in the recent presentation he suggested (or rather declined to be more precise than!) somewhere between 3500 and 6000. Initial production rates drop off quickly and delays and disappointments are par for the course.

[royalalbert] 21/3/2024 17:26

HAT, love it.

"I like to under promise myself!"

To be honest I will be more than happy if they hit the target MA stated i.e doubling of production 6400bopd end 24. Anymore will be a bonus for all of us.

[eaglehaslanded] 21/3/2024 16:22

I understood from the interview that it takes 3 weeks to drill and complete a HZ well, in theory they could drill some wells this year. I think he said 5.

[pastybap] 21/3/2024 15:57

To be honest, I dont think the market is even pricing in the current 3k-4k bopd, nevermind the potential!

[desha] 21/3/2024 15:43

don't get me wrong - I'm excited at the potential here! I just want to set expectations on steady state production from the horizontals. I think 8K by y/e is achievable and I don't think the market is pricing in anywhere near 8k a day!

[eaglehaslanded] 21/3/2024 15:42

MA said they will likely do a mid year (reserves) report, that will include the latest wells like the prolific CN-5 ubaque

[here and there] 21/3/2024 15:22

Declines, problems etc. I would be delighted with anything over 5000bopd. I like to under promise myself! We will get a decent guide from the first horizontal, particularly after the intial flush

[rockyride] 21/3/2024 15:00

So (5 x 1,000) - 20% = 4,000OK

[desha] 21/3/2024 14:37

Don't forget Marshall's estimates for HZ wells were for initial (flush) production - has anyone seen IP30 estimates? Or can we say 10-20% decline after initial flush?

[eaglehaslanded] 21/3/2024 14:28

The volume today in London is quite high, is it not?

[rockyride] 21/3/2024 14:27

Yea and I was also counting the slightly delayed trade of 400k. Strange day today but good to see a 4m volume day - so far.

[des12345] 21/3/2024 14:18

yeah 3 big trades totalling 1.3m shares

[rockyride] 21/3/2024 14:16

Somebody did like the presentation and they just got the same as my holding in 4 trades. Wonder if it's being held here until the buyer has his fill of what he's after? Quite sure its a bloke LOL

[rockyride] 21/3/2024 13:20

Lots of buys now showing as sells, we have quite a bit of new money here and I see 27p becoming a new strong support level.

[dunns_river_falls] 21/3/2024 12:58

On 7k BOPD am I right in thinking that's around $400k per day net revenue at say $56 netback. Annualise that for $140m net revenue. And they were talking about 2-3 times net revenue as being ballpark cheap. So $280m cap if they can hit 7k. Maybe more if the market starts to value oil companies fairly again. Maybe a bit simplistic but this rerate should be just the start.

[eaglehaslanded] 21/3/2024 12:32

Lexion I am also thinking at least 7000 boed by end of 2024. It might well surpass 8000