Arrow Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[here and there] 14/3/2024 08:50

Proactive presentation tonight in London. Video normally is released a few days later.

[chessman2] 13/3/2024 20:44

Yes, AXL is looking better in both markets and I’m optimistic that London will continue to climb as well.

AXL is certainly looking better and once the next news is announced I expect the share price to increase even further.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 20:24

Up to 45c in Canada and the full ask being paid.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 17:17

Albeit low volume today, for the first time in a while, sells outweighed buys. But post close, good to see a small UT and 2 x O trades at 26p. Bodes well for coming sessions, especially with good news expected soon. Bought my last few here today and thats me now fully locked and loaded. No more buys from me and no sells until at least a 3 bag from today's close!

[78steve] 13/3/2024 12:02

That will buck the trend usually down on news

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 11:28

ATB with your continued treatment MT. I just attempt to put all the pieces of financial data together to work out the most accurate value proposition I can.

A lot of different metrics get conflated and used incorrectly in comparisons on these boards in my view.

For me we need to know:

1) Max realistic sustainable production rate over field life, combined with
2) Reserve life
3) Long-term decline rates and/or sustaining capex required for (1)
4) Post-tax, capex, admin etc 'free cash flow' generation per annum based on (1) and (3) given some assumption on average oil price and operating costs

We can then try to model a DCF and work out today's value of all that - then apply our own investor risk discount to that price and that's where we should be buying up to!

The more drills we do, the more data we get and we revise expectations upwards (hopefully!). Right now we believe 10k bopd is achievable (but is it sustainable?) we have some growing reserves (what we will we top out at?) we have a feel for current drill costs for growth (what will be required to offset declines long-term?) we have a figure of $2.5m net cash flow at present - we are not sure what this will be when paying full tax and at max production, but we can make a guess.. we are unhedged, so we hope oil rises, or at least stays around $80 - a healthy price.

We have part of the picture and it says AXL has great potential. We'll know a lot more in a couple of months!

[mount teide] 13/3/2024 11:06

KS - understand entirely. Comment was not in any way meant as a criticism of professional accountants like yourself - a group of people i relied on hugely when running port and shipping company businesses. With respect to equity investing, most of my investments are made on the basis of identifying businesses with very strong fundamentals at an attractive entry price, run by a CEO with a good track record of success in the sector. And then often averaging up when the investment case/growth strengthens faster than the value being attributed to it by the market. Would not concern yourself about the downticks - If you put your head above the parapet on Advfn they are par for the course. I often get them simply for expressing a long held view, like being an advocate of buy and hold investing - despite it having proved the test of time, it’s now considered deeply unfashionable by a very sizeable minority of the equity investment community. Sent from my phone while undergoing the latest round of treatment - so apologies if it reads like one long rambling sentence!

[royalalbert] 13/3/2024 11:03

It's only blues who can down tick, keep up the good work KS.

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:55

Thanks - and apologies for clogging up the board. Clearly I got out of bed on the wrong side this morning..

[chessman2] 13/3/2024 10:27

KS, be assured that your input here is much appreciated as are the informative posts from the other bulletin posters

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:23

How about a high-FIVE?

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 10:10

Three in a row?

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 09:57

Thanks for the down tick on that facetious post - can I get another here, please? :)

[king suarez] 13/3/2024 09:53

^^ and this is where us accountants (me) and non-accountants differ! :)

[mount teide] 12/3/2024 23:17

RR - for cash flow etc calculation purposes, I currently assume that 10% of the total production is Nat Gas and generating Nil contribution.

Found a broad brush/rough calculation approach has rarely failed to give me a decent 'steer/feel' as to how a business is performing - as a private investor you don't need two decimal place Finance Director calculation accuracy to do that!

[king suarez] 12/3/2024 22:24

340 boepd in the Q3 financials. Page 7 of the MD&A.

[rockyride] 12/3/2024 22:05

MT - do you know circa how many boepd are from Alberta gas in the 3,200boepd group production at YE23?

[mount teide] 12/3/2024 21:52

Alberta Natural Gas price is averaging circa US$1.35 mmbtu in 2024 - around AXL's operating cost.

[rockyride] 12/3/2024 21:23

The main reason is that MA is lowballing the number at $2.5m. The G&A, Tax and Gas would not amount to $3.26m per month. I suspect we are currently banking well over $3m PCM net of everything.

[king suarez] 12/3/2024 20:47

RR - I think we've had this discussion before about netcash flow?

MA quotes field netbacks, which do not include admin, tax etc. ALSO not ALL of the 3200 boepd is oil - several hundred are gas contributing nothing due to low gas price.

[royalalbert] 12/3/2024 18:15

Really do expect a RNS either tomorrow or Thursday, "the boys are back in town".

The inverted comma's are for people who remember the song, showing my age, LoL.

[rockyride] 12/3/2024 17:53

RA - as you say, Canada perky again and the last few buys have been at the full ask of 44c.

[royalalbert] 12/3/2024 16:33

Well that's a closing high, canada also on the up. As been stated previously steady rises are nice to see.