Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 13:53

Shut up Rackers you tit, let the bigger boys have a conversation.

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 13:37

If there had not been an issue, don’t you think both the 2020 numbers would have been published and also that the IPO would have happened by now, having been shelved in 2 occasions over 4 years or so?

Perhaps the prospective new investors are simply not biting on the promised revenue.

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 13:30

Excellent post lucky Jack. Thanks.

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 13:02

psycho .. if there was a ISSUE with the 2020 numbers do you think there would be an IPO in progress ?

MORON

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 12:56

Hi Chucko1

The prospectus will appear , from what im hearing early viewing is going incredibly well

As always proof will be in the pudding .. just alot of he said she said until then

Im 100% confident that once analyst's that actually know what they are doing see the numbers Arria will fly , the company is finally set to deliver in a HUGE way

All this talk of 2009-19 etc is meaningless ... anyone that knows the company is aware they have specifically not invited easy funding from the street so they can retain full control of the board. No easy feat privately raising 150+ M in small clips from individual investors. Any groundbreaking tech company takes time and experiences bumps along the way

Lets not forget who is at the helm here ... all the key players worked and created Diligent Corp .. a hugely successful company that was eventually sold to private equity. These guys are seasoned not a bunch of amateurs taking their first company public

2019-21 same thing , you don't know , others do ... reading between the lines you would think all is well given a 100m IPO is in the pipeline.

[luckyjack] 31/3/2022 12:37

Below are the first 5 SaaS companies in the Aussie All Ordinaries as they appear on my Bloomberg, with their price/sales multiple and their annual revenue growth rate.

XRO 17x 20%
WTC 30x 18%
ALU 16x 29%
TNE 12x 4%
SDR 12x -10%

To achieve $100m in revenue, which is doable simply by implementing the product across all the Dominos outlets they have so far signed, would mean +100% revenue growth in 2022 and about 300% in 2023. They are on course to do this. This is ignoring all other revenue streams.

Absolutely no stock trades in 5x sales with that kind of growth, i don’t care what exchange it’s on. I would expect to see 25x. If it was listed in the US, which they hope to do in time, it would trade at 100x (which is insane I know).

PX1 is a dog with fleas. Flatlined revenues with increasing operating expenses. It’s hit a wall in revenue before it was able to generate any operating margin. Cannot be compared to the present Arria story.

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 12:30

I am yet to receive a sensible reason why those 2020 results are 9 months late and counting. Kidknocked stated in November last year that the results would be published as part of the IPO documents. How’s that all going???

[chucko1] 31/3/2022 12:26

LA, the "real story" should certainly be what is written into the prospectus, if and when it appears. But it seems as though the talk, at least, is not yet gaining the traction that would lead to a successful IPO.

I would add that the talk would need to be somewhat convincing given the missteps of the previous decade (2009-19). We have almost no concrete view of 2019-21 owing to no posted results or other meaningful public statements.

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 10:58

Shut up Rackers you tit.

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 10:42

What you mean is that you NEED to disagree given the heart, soul and apparent ignorance you have invested in this thing.

But that apart, why do you disagree?

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 10:33

Thanks Windhill, I really disagree with the majority of your post, but thanks for your views

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 10:33

Rackers - stop being a tit. Thanks.

[windhill] 31/3/2022 05:18

Psychchopper: correct. I was responding to hypothetical posed -" if they got to $100M Rev what would their valuation be?' I assume prospectus which I have not seen will show at best $25M for CY22 - and even that wishful thinking. So analyst would price well south of their last round on fundamentals with upside driven by cash on hand post list.

[legal alien] 30/3/2022 23:36

Thanks Windmill

Sorry i had assumed you had seen the prospectus or presentation .. guess from thoughts above not

Best to pick this up after you get to take a look

[legal alien] 30/3/2022 23:36

Thanks Windmill

Sorry i had assumed you had seen the prospectus or presentation .. guess from thoughts above not

Best to pick this up after you get to take a look

[psychochopper] 30/3/2022 22:49

$100mn? - small fraction of that when last reported. Since then, a few things including pizza and sports. But the sports, for example, is really small whatever the mild sound and fury when announced.

But if not $100mn now, or soon - is there a clear path to this amount? I do not see it.

[windhill] 30/3/2022 22:33

$100M in top line Rev roughly 5x at best so $0.5B. Divided by total number of shares currently on issue (255832324) gives you c$1.95 a share. But given IPO will increase shares on issue, the denominator goes up. So maybe $1.20 -$1.30 best case. Which I would note is less than the $1.50 their AR says they did the last round at I think. Given the ASX is not overly tech friendly - check out how PLX has done since going from NZX to ASX. They are in the QSR space NLG is raising up as their latest Golden Calf. Or the poor multipliers other SaaS companies get on ASX-- there is no tailwind there. If NLG manage to IPO it could well be at par to last raise, then will likely drop to c$0.50 or lower. Irony being its trading range will likely match the price point it exited AIM on -- about $0.20 AUD. If they come up with a crypto play or a bonkers Defense related story they might froth a long on a wave of fad and giddy up for a few weeks, but unlikely. Sizzle is great- but you need a sausage somewhere

[psychochopper] 30/3/2022 20:52

The recent postings from both LA and Kid are evidence of total and long lasting idiocy.

You have both been warned persistently that the revenue was lacking and that there was simply no evidence of a meaningful pick-up. Nothing, or very little, was contractual. Partnering with accounting firms or Microsoft or whoever is one thing, but gives no clarity on likely revenue. Only posted earnings or management statement can do this, and there is a complete lack of this as far as I can see. The deal with Dominos is good, but no one has had anything to say about tangible revenue from this.

I am sure the technology is class-leading, but that is a world away from a strong business case for middle-management to take to their bosses. The NLG that I have seen in their presentations does not provide the degree of insight that merits expenditure of more than a few thousand USD per user per annum. (this is a problem I have more generally with AI)

That would require a heck of a lot of signed contracts and I have never seen that as likely.

Dreams of valuations of Billions is absurd as the current and envisaged products show no possibility of mass usage. If this IPO cannot fly, it’s looking really grim.

[kidknocked] 30/3/2022 19:00

Hi Legal Alien. You have mail.

[drew lonmenob] 30/3/2022 18:42

Counts you out then kid

[legal alien] 30/3/2022 18:29

That was addressed to the grown ups Drew

[drew lonmenob] 30/3/2022 18:26

You've been dreaming for years RodneyClown

[legal alien] 30/3/2022 17:46

Windmill… where would you put the stock if Arria starts bringing in real revenues 100+ in the next 12-18 months ?

Revenue not bookings

Curious

We can dream

[kidknocked] 30/3/2022 17:43

And apologies for saying you were yet another ID of this boards stalker, you are clearly not. Thanks