Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[luckyjack] 01/4/2022 14:44

Psychochopper - Currently the Dominos that have signed up are within the franchisee network, so no it would not show on the US-listed Domino’s accounts. That said, the VP of Domino’s Franchise Operations for the Western half of the US gives a glowing video testimonial on the Arria website about how it is being implemented and used in their stores. I doubt he’d be doing that if it wasn’t true.

Windhill - I’m not sure how WTC was the lowest of the examples, it has a 30x sales multiple on a plateauing 18% YoY revenue growth. And yet you’d only assign a 10x multiple to a company exhibiting +100% growth? I’m not sure that’s entirely consistent.

SDR trades at 12x even though it is consistently loss making and it’s sales are declining, worse still whilst they maintain a massive marketing spend.

Judging by the way you examine a company’s balance sheet and income statements I would imagine you will indeed have lots of fun dissecting the IM, much in the same manner an infant enjoys smearing food all over it’s face as it tries to master the use of a spoon.

[drew lonmenob] 01/4/2022 14:38

i dont think hes elsewhere here - we'd sniff that anger out a mile off.

[psychochopper] 01/4/2022 13:11

Perhaps Elcap has reawoken as some other entity? Or is in the dosshouse somewhere?

[drew lonmenob] 31/3/2022 23:03

At least el capital saw the light on this dog. He gave up years ago here.

[dingowatty] 31/3/2022 23:00

Psychochopper - it's confidential because it's not good news. If it was good news they'd be shouting long and loud about it. Best to keep the bad news hidden as long as possible while they push this latest IPO circus.

[windhill] 31/3/2022 22:37

Still not buying the valuation story here. Even the lowest of your ASX examples WTC has revenues of half a billion. Ling term, clear contracts. Top of your list Xero has revenue of $800M. All of your list are profitable. They will get strong multiples because risk is lower. But given that let's still be generous. Let's assume NLG gets to 100M in revenue at some point. If they hold their current cost base they will be profitable at that point. Maybe even as early as 50m in revenue. Then let's give them a 10x multiple. Yay a billion dollar company! But hold on. If I IPO with 75M cash coming in converting to equity at 1.50 my cap table now has 3.68M shares on issue. That gives me a share price of 2.71. In the future. Best case. Crystal Ball. NLG lists at 1.50, due to overhang and fundamentals it drops to sub .50 and trades in that range until revenue gets above 50M and EBITDA goes black. Boy that IM is going to be fun to dissect when it drops. Never say never - even Barnham and Bailey made money for a while. And this circus has the best clowns in town...

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 21:52

Why is it confidential? A very odd way of soliciting further investment!

Are you suggesting that the those paying the revenue must keep it confidential? So Dominoes must not disclose it in their accounts?

Enlighten me.

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 20:43

Of course i won't .. its confidential at this time

But will be out in due course

[dingowatty] 31/3/2022 20:24

Legal Alien, you're more than welcome to present evidence here that Arria generated some significant revenue in 2020 or 2021. But we all know you won't.

[drew lonmenob] 31/3/2022 19:53

Shut up kid you tit!!

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 19:51

"And the revenue fantasies continue... Arria is not a commercially viable company and has serially failed to generate any significant revenue. There is no miraculous turn around about to occur via Dominoes or anyone else. All we're hearing are more fantasy stories that only an idiot would believe"

hahahahahhahahhahahahahahh if u say so sir !

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 19:29

Shut up Rackers you tit.

[drew lonmenob] 31/3/2022 18:29

Quite laughable too.

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 18:25

Well, he has written “Shut up Rackers, you tit” three times, so perhaps he is aware of three individuals. Who knows?

As one David Coleman would have said - “ quite remarkable”.

[drew lonmenob] 31/3/2022 18:09

He has rackers living in that vacuous head of his rent free.Blithering idiot

[dingowatty] 31/3/2022 17:23

As I said, only an idiot would believe the revenue fantasies. And only an idiot would believe that every poster they disagree with is Rackers.

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 17:13

Shut up Rackers you tit.

[dingowatty] 31/3/2022 17:08

And the revenue fantasies continue...

Arria is not a commercially viable company and has serially failed to generate any significant revenue. There is no miraculous turn around about to occur via Dominoes or anyone else. All we're hearing are more fantasy stories that only an idiot would believe.

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 14:53

Shut up Rackers you tit, let the bigger boys have a conversation.

[psychochopper] 31/3/2022 14:37

If there had not been an issue, don’t you think both the 2020 numbers would have been published and also that the IPO would have happened by now, having been shelved in 2 occasions over 4 years or so?

Perhaps the prospective new investors are simply not biting on the promised revenue.

[kidknocked] 31/3/2022 14:30

Excellent post lucky Jack. Thanks.

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 14:02

psycho .. if there was a ISSUE with the 2020 numbers do you think there would be an IPO in progress ?

MORON

[legal alien] 31/3/2022 13:56

Hi Chucko1

The prospectus will appear , from what im hearing early viewing is going incredibly well

As always proof will be in the pudding .. just alot of he said she said until then

Im 100% confident that once analyst's that actually know what they are doing see the numbers Arria will fly , the company is finally set to deliver in a HUGE way

All this talk of 2009-19 etc is meaningless ... anyone that knows the company is aware they have specifically not invited easy funding from the street so they can retain full control of the board. No easy feat privately raising 150+ M in small clips from individual investors. Any groundbreaking tech company takes time and experiences bumps along the way

Lets not forget who is at the helm here ... all the key players worked and created Diligent Corp .. a hugely successful company that was eventually sold to private equity. These guys are seasoned not a bunch of amateurs taking their first company public

2019-21 same thing , you don't know , others do ... reading between the lines you would think all is well given a 100m IPO is in the pipeline.

[luckyjack] 31/3/2022 13:37

Below are the first 5 SaaS companies in the Aussie All Ordinaries as they appear on my Bloomberg, with their price/sales multiple and their annual revenue growth rate.

XRO 17x 20%
WTC 30x 18%
ALU 16x 29%
TNE 12x 4%
SDR 12x -10%

To achieve $100m in revenue, which is doable simply by implementing the product across all the Dominos outlets they have so far signed, would mean +100% revenue growth in 2022 and about 300% in 2023. They are on course to do this. This is ignoring all other revenue streams.

Absolutely no stock trades in 5x sales with that kind of growth, i don’t care what exchange it’s on. I would expect to see 25x. If it was listed in the US, which they hope to do in time, it would trade at 100x (which is insane I know).

PX1 is a dog with fleas. Flatlined revenues with increasing operating expenses. It’s hit a wall in revenue before it was able to generate any operating margin. Cannot be compared to the present Arria story.