Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 19:54

Page 11 says: Venus has a good relationship with the owners of the Apliki mine ..... Venus is looking to formally re-engage with the owners of Apliki once it has completed an IPO in London. Interesting.

[bigglesbingham] 21/7/2023 18:17

Good update 30 page synopsis from WH Ireland on website. Target based on very conservative assumptions 5.5p

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 18:16

I see it is possible to access the full WH Ireland Analyst Note on the Ariana Web Site.

Very pleased this is being made available on the site. Good move by Ariana.

They see fair value at 5.5p per share using conservative inputs which aligns with Panmure Gordon and my own assessment as I mentioned earlier today. Worth a read I'm sure.

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 15:21

I've done my own very rough & ready value calculations.Panmure Gordon have it as 5.49p for this year. My figure comes out at 5.83p using a 5 times FCF multiplier, gold at $1850 and costs at $700 per oz.For next year I get 6.47p assuming 15,000 ozs from Tavsan (50% of full production) with gold $2000 and costs $750 for Kiziltepe and $1000 per oz for Tavsan.In 2025 assuming Kiziltepe is still producing 18,000 ozs and Tavsan 30,000 ozs I get 11.91p. Here I use costs of $800 for Kilitepe and $1100 per oz for Tavsan. Gold I have estimated at $2500 per oz. I've taken no account of Silver.I've added nominal values for Salinbas/Ardale, Explorations, Venus, WTR, Asgard and of course cash.I'm sure it is wrong but gives a flavour of my expectations. I know you all tried to estimate the share price at the year end. Mine would be 5.5p. Cheers

[charles clore] 21/7/2023 14:56

Thanks - the new blood will come. Its just a question of when. I think it is unlikely to expect speculative punts. More likely to be when the profits roll in from production are too big to ignore or an offer is made for Salinbas or one of the other monsters that we are developing. Could be anytime but we know the potential is there and that's why I'm holding. A safe investment with huge upside imho.

[soulsauce] 21/7/2023 13:01

No rush to top up here until the incessant selling dries up.
If the price is right in September I may grab a few more.
It wouldn't surprise me at the moment to have a pre Tavsan news double bottom.

[shortarm] 21/7/2023 12:30

Zangdook: You ain't seen nothing yet. Napalm, Agent Orange, White Phosphorus, Depleted Uranium, McDonalds, KFC.....Serious question, do you have ADHD or some other diagnoses?

[zangdook] 21/7/2023 12:07

Maybe Starbucks has started accepting AAU.

[bigglesbingham] 21/7/2023 12:01

There have been blocks of 250 sells for considerable time now

[thanksamillion] 21/7/2023 11:34

That fits in very nicely with my thoughts Plasybryn.

Down again, I think we need some new blood to get this rising.

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 10:41

I've done my own very rough & ready value calculations.
Panmure Gordon have it as 5.49p for this year. My figure comes out at 5.83p using a 5 times FCF multiplier, gold at $1850 and costs at $700 per oz.

For next year I get 6.47p assuming 15,000 ozs from Tavsan (50% of full production) with gold $2000 and costs $750 for Kiziltepe and $1000 per oz for Tavsan.

In 2025 assuming Kiziltepe is still producing 18,000 ozs and Tavsan 30,000 ozs I get 11.91p. Here I use costs of $800 for Kilitepe and $1100 per oz for Tavsan. Gold I have estimated at $2500 per oz. I've taken no account of Silver.
I've added nominal values for Salinbas/Ardale, Explorations, Venus, WTR, Asgard and of course cash.
I'm sure it is wrong but gives a flavour of my expectations. I know you all tried to estimate the share price at the year end. Mine would be 5.5p. Cheers

[soulsauce] 21/7/2023 09:38

I have sent an email although it initially bounced back as I am guessing it is .co.uk and not just .co as stated in the RNS.

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 09:04

Have you asked Soulsauce. Sounds like a plan.

[plasybryn] 21/7/2023 09:03

This was my tweet to the Co yesterday in reply to its own. Potentially a more direct way to get to the Co. than via Yellow Jersey.
Tweeter address: @ArianaResources

"Good news and welcomed but shame still no clarity re: Apliki. It’s surely what was going to make the Venus IPO special was it not, being a permitted project with ready initial feedstock. The full story here is shrouded in fog hence i suspect no share price reaction today."

[chinese investor] 21/7/2023 07:42

Good Morning !

[soulsauce] 20/7/2023 23:21

Has anyone tried info@venusminerals to ask about Apliki.
Unfortunately quite noticeable by it's absence in the Rns today and disappointing that just exploration was mentioned. Surely we have done enough of that on the island.

[plasybryn] 20/7/2023 22:28

Good post konil. I support what you say. On the issue of buy backs versus dividend, this is my position.Need to retain significant cash for growth opportunities/ expansion costs, but i favour a sensible dividend.Very few small AIM miners in this fortunate position. Gives a strong message of Balance Sheet strength and may bring in some new income seeking investors plus retain existing ones.

[konil] 20/7/2023 21:29

plasybryn, all the earlier angst about venus ipo was because it was holding up apliki.

apliki being a permitted project with ready initial feedstock, and more ore ready to be mined, and potential for aau to later process some of its own ore through the plant subject to relevant agreements. only requiring a plant build with readily available components from an existing decommisioned plant. and suggestions from aau that apliki could be in production within 12 months (or was it 6 months) from kick-off.

all held up by lack of venus ipo - at least that was what we were told.

today's rns - yeah a good step, but no mention of apliki, so really a step in the usual long road towards production, 5 years? 10 years?, so not really surprising the reaction was more or less a shrug of the shoulders.



also, venus are looking to raise £3m which will result in aau's holding in venus going down by 23% (from 58% to 35%). on that basis venus would be valued at £13m with aau's 35% being worth £4.55m.
considering what aau has already put in to venus (i dont recall exactly but is it c.£3.5m?), its not a magnificent gain upon ipo by any means, especially after all these years of delay. ready to be corrected if my maths is wrong.



one possible 'blue sky' result - apliki will be reincarnated and fast tracked after venus' ipo but it will need new agreements to be put in place first. so still some way to go even if that is the hidden agenda.




tavsan - yup that is big news and will strengthen aau finances significantly, especially if aau keep delivering longer mine life at kizil.




everything else far too long term for me and i did not get any feeling from his recent interview that ks was fast tracking the hizarliyayla work, even though "the prospectivity make these some of the most exciting exploration drilling results that we have ever announced."

but tavsan up and running will do for now.

[temujiin] 20/7/2023 21:23

Did shareholders not really care about Venus. Was it all just noise?
=====================

Plas, for me and probably many others, Venus was exciting as they were looking at starting a new copper mine, and AAU had some money to help make it happen. Sadly Venus listing for exploration doesn't blow my skirt up that much. Getting the Tasvan mine build rolling does though.

[donald pond] 20/7/2023 21:22

It's been a bear market in small caps for ages, so there are very few investors looking to buy in and those that are tend to be battle hardened. Very few experienced investors will look twice at a share with a spread above 5%. You can get away with 10-20% spreads when the market is full of newbies worried about missing the next 10 bagger but that's not the market we are in.

[bigglesbingham] 20/7/2023 21:13

I'm expecting something left field like we are becoming more heavily invested in Pant aus now tarsvan sorted

[bigglesbingham] 20/7/2023 20:02

In the scheme of things I think the spread will be irrelevant to return but take your point. I always recall spread being similar but memory may be playing trick ha ha

[plasybryn] 20/7/2023 19:36

I thought shareholders in Ariana were making a lot of noise about the delays etc at Venus.
Today we get an RNS confirming the marketing is about to start and the IPO will happen this year, and that was hot on the heals of the biggy telling us that our second mine is back on with commissioning production this side of Xmas, and yet the share price retreats. Did shareholders not really care about Venus. Was it all just noise?

Did investors listen to the Proactive interview?

[...]
I am bewildered. By my reckoning the share price now be at least twice its current price.

[thanksamillion] 20/7/2023 19:09

May be a problem for day traders but for the rest of us the buy price is what matters, spread is irrelevant.

[coachsailor] 20/7/2023 19:03

I was not talking about the spread shown on ADVFN, but the spread between quotes offered for similar sized buy and sells at about the same time trialled both on Interactive Investor and Jarvis. This spread represents cash lost to the MMs similar to the 0.5% stamp duty for most shares, and is all a part of the odds of cost/reward potential when purchasing any share. Remember it is only potential and the market has already predicted its current price.
The current spread is huge Biggles as historically the spread for AAU was often around 2%.
Many of us thought there was great potential for the past 2 years and have been topping up as the price slid down to 4.5p then 4p and 3p right down to 2.2p/ Prof P was the one who scored the bullseye with the right timing just before the MMs widened the spread and then the good news followed shortly after. The lack of trading even after that news, is because of that spread.