Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[renniks2016] 06/4/2021 18:10

I don't think it's going to take too much volume to move this now, added another 300k in to my ISA today and price moved on last two trades. has Gold and silver turned the corner too? looks like it to me.

[royalalbert] 06/4/2021 17:57

A bit more of a rocket under the gold price would be helpful.

[soulsauce] 06/4/2021 17:06

Nice post CSSF 👍

[crossfirecssf] 06/4/2021 17:03

Nice little bump at the close to form a clear double bottom at the conclusion of the running-flat. I anticipate (would love) a resumption of the upward trend.

This simply can’t go too much lower given the recent and upcoming news. Optimistic Tuesday! We may all be six feet under by the time we regain the historic 16p (caveat - one twentieth of the current shares in issue back then), but I may yet recline in my coffin with a grin, in the knowledge that my girls are sorted, for a short to medium term at least...

[charles clore] 06/4/2021 16:08

Not so much in Turkey but definitely Ariana. Don't forget they only have a minority (23.5%) stake there now. It will be interesting to see where they put their money for the future.

[renniks2016] 06/4/2021 15:23

Allowing for the 2 wk window for insider dealings, I'm expecting news flow to return end of the week. imo

[soulsauce] 06/4/2021 14:59

I was hoping for some more drilling results from RR before now. Must be lots stacking up.

[shortarm] 06/4/2021 14:51

Surely we are overdue some attitude from Ariana?Or some news on acquisitions at least!

[linz22] 06/4/2021 05:41

No, Bob, probably not.
But, now is definitely the time to invest in gold...

[a.fewbob] 05/4/2021 12:52

I did comment a very long time ago that the biggest risk and the thing that was keeping us down was the state of Turkey!

I guess the fact is, would you really invest in Turkey now???

[thanksamillion] 05/4/2021 12:42

That seems a fair appraisal of the "Turkey" risk, I doubt if the Government would see nationalizing gold in the ground as an attractive option, in addition it would weaken Ozaltin, a key infrastructure partner. I will be happier however when the dividend money is safely moved to the UK.

[soulsauce] 04/4/2021 16:58

Cheers 1candc

[1candc] 04/4/2021 16:52

Nigel Somerville latest
ShareProphets reader P asks about the position in Turkey with regard to the recent sacking of Naci Agbal – the third Turkish Central Bank governor to be shown the door in less than two years which caused another hefty drop in the Turkish Lira, reports of Turkish jewellers being required to deposit their gold at the central bank and wonders whether there may be a danger of gold confiscation or nationalisation. This, in relation to a holding in AIM-listed gold-producer in Turkey, Ariana Resources (AAU).

On the face of it, a declining Turkish Lira does Ariana plenty of favours. Whilst its ownership of the producing Kiziltepe mine has reduced to 23.5% following the now complete (at last!) corporate action, since the labour costs are in Turkish Lira but the finished product is valued in US Dollars that should increase profit margins, assuming all else remains the same.

For the last few years, Ariana has done very well out of this but of course if things get too extreme then there could be consequences. Now there are new proposals to require jewellers to deposit 500g of gold each with state banks to raise additional funds for the economy which, needless to say, has not gone down well with the jewellers. Estimates are that the plan will bring in as much as 20 tons of gold into the banking system.

But could the Turkish government and new chief central banker go further, and confiscate gold or, in the case of Ariana, attempt to nationalise it?

I had a few concerns some months back in that Ariana could get caught out by a sharply declining Turkish Lira or, worse still, find its cash trapped in the country by currency controls – a bit of an issue when you have debts to pay off in US dollars. In the case of Ariana, the deal is that its freshly produced gold has to be sold to the Turkish Central Bank for Turkish Lira, and then converted to US Dollars. But I fancy that difficulties exchanging them for dollars are a long way off, given that debt owed to Turkiye Finans bank is priced in dollars and Turkiye Finans is funded in part from Saudi Arabia. The Turkish government also draws funding from such sources and as such one can imagine the conversation should Turkey try it on.

But now that the corporate action is finally through there is another consideration, for confiscating gold or attempting to nationalise the producing asset would shoot the Turkish economy in the foot: Ariana may own 23.5% of the Red Rabbit and Salinbas projects but the remaining 76.5% is held by two larger scale Turkish companies, Proccea and Ozaltin. So I rather doubt that Ariana is in any danger here. Indeed, it makes the part-disposal to Ozaltin and Proccea in return for a total of $37.75 million look somewhat astute.

With the shares at 4.35p against my limit-buy price of 5.5p, with a 7.5p price target as we await further news of the forthcoming special dividend as well as further exploration news and some hint on what CEO Kerim Sener has in mind for the balance of the cash from the corporate action, my stance remains BUY.

[bonehanmer] 02/4/2021 12:16

Anyone seen that George Gammon is suing the fed and is going to attempt to get a full audit under the freedom of information act. Would be interested to see if the states has the amount of gold they claim. Doubt anything will come of it, but could be worth following it as it unfolds. Have a happy and safe Easter to all!

[konil] 02/4/2021 09:57

i came into pms last year, over a period where gold was around these levels, a disappointing result after its breach of 2000. silver meanwhile has gone up about 50%. if gold breaks 2000 again and maybe even carries on, it will supercharge any intrinsic returns due to company growth.

so far the gp has not really behaved as predicted by the industry pundits, but then the economic fallout from the pandemic and the associated loose monetary policy around the globe has not really been reflected in the markets yet imo. with covid not going away any time soon, the pm landscape could look very different in another 12 months.

and then there is the black swan event of the dollar crash, often spoken about but probably seen as a far off event by most. imo the fat lady is in the dressing room so with biden printing more trillions it might just break the magic spell that has held the dollar up.

in short it is no time to be out of the pm space and even better if one can find a leveraged play, like pm equities, and even betterer (tech term) if those plays are at a point of supercharged growth...like aau.

from the red in my pf i look forward in hope.

[soulsauce] 01/4/2021 20:05

I think with the JV concluded and Ozaltin getting busy at Salinbas, Tavsan getting closer, increasing production at RR and some excitement in Cyprus plus other assets, I don't see any reason for us not doing another 50% plus this year on top of a nice chunk of dividend money.

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 01/4/2021 19:26

A good post JAF. As you show so clearly, despite all the gripes and groans over the year, we have had another excellent return. It could have been better, it could have been a hell of a lot worse. Another 50% rise plus a nice juicy dividend over the next 12 months would be very acceptable, but I believe with all the news round the corner it will be surpassed significantly.
Happy Easter and I h1ope your retirement funds continue to prosper!

[bigglesbingham] 01/4/2021 18:42

Nice post JAF puts things in perspective! You must be in a good mood with spring upon us. Have a good one and to all on this entertaining board

[jaf1948] 01/4/2021 18:22

Not only the end of the week but also the end of the financial year.

On April 6th 2019, the mid share price was 1.85p - on April 6th 2020, the mid price was 2.90p which is a rise of 57%.

We finished this financial year on 4.35p which is a rise of exactly 50%. It was even better at times during the year but 50% is a very good return nevertheless.

So a good year, but not quite as good as the previous one, which may come as a surprise to some people. A 50% rise in this financial year would take us to around 6.5p - I would be quite happy with that.

[renniks2016] 01/4/2021 16:37

Nice end to the week, quite a few more in the bag, well under average, so that is a bonus, both gold and silver starting to stretch their legs, Happy Easter all, see you on the other side.

[charles clore] 01/4/2021 15:01

That's £3750 less divi for you then

[plasybryn] 01/4/2021 14:13

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Ruslan Khomchak said on Tuesday Russia was building up armed forces near Ukraine's borders in a threat to the country's security.Gold going up in response?

[jaynesdad] 01/4/2021 14:10

Probably the 500k I sold Charkes

[charles clore] 01/4/2021 14:06

I added 500k yesterday and the price dropped. Ah well never mind. That big fat dividend is only just around the corner - I hope!

[zangdook] 01/4/2021 13:04

tnt

to be precise, one director bought 582,000, and one sold 600,000. Net director sales in the market.