Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[theduke420] 25/2/2020 10:45

"However, also the shares have risen to a now even 3.3p to sell. We only re-recommended them at a 2.3p offer price in August and, although we see further upside potential should the deal go through or, longer-term, through continued operational delivery, we recognise an already strong recent run (the shares still below 2.3p as recently as December) and the shorter-term ethos of this site. As such, we now bank more than 40% - less than six months - gains, sell."No thx will continue to buy + hold

[theduke420] 25/2/2020 09:27

Just been tipped on hot stock rockets again.... How long before we are advised once again to take profits... Added here and PALM this morning

[temujiin] 25/2/2020 07:53

I'm sure the choice of JV partner is fine, it's just how much they are paying for all the gold production they will be getting from Kizil and Tasvan, from day 1 and for 10 years, that is my issue. $50m sounds a lot, but isn't if we're looking at 350,000 oz at an AISC of $5-600/oz and POG over $1600.

[kaos3] 25/2/2020 05:35

I like it - it is not just about the money. spread sheet optimisation..... vs real life

[nov31] 25/2/2020 04:38

because despite contracts you need to choose a partner you can trust and work with well. Proccea was chosen carefully by Kerim and Ariana. The choice was a good one. The next partner needs to be chosen just as carefully,

[kaos3] 25/2/2020 02:53

the main thing that bothers me - there seems to be just one favoured JV partner - why? is this specific entity a must? incompetence of the management not opening an asset bidding(I doubt it).

best to do nothing at all?

[temujiin] 24/2/2020 23:47

One last thing before I jack it in for the night. From AAU's perspective I regard any agreed JV deal as an on-going negotiation, like wanting to sell a house. If the buyer doesn't offer enough, and atm I don't think they have, then reject it.

It's unlikely (tho not certain) that they would just slope off on a rejection by AAU SH's as the 53% deal gives them an estimated $200+m gross income from Kizil and Tasvan over approx the next 7 - 10 years. It's a no brainer for them and imo they should increase the MOU offer by another $15 - $20m as AAU are actually highly profitable without them or Salinbas going into production

[temujiin] 24/2/2020 22:21

Well that doesn't sound overly hopeful Soul as proposed new JV partner is only offering $8m to do all of the following:

Additional drilling and resource estimation
Definitive Feasibility Study
EIA and permitting
Freehold land acquisition, public relations, new licences.

We don't have a figure for what Proccea may contribute but I estimate $6.5m.

[soulsauce] 24/2/2020 22:14

The previous JV partner spent $8m on the Salinbas area and barely scratched the surface.

[temujiin] 24/2/2020 22:09

It's unlikely AAU wld spend all $30m in year one, so having that much from day one is probably not that important.

Kizil at 25k oz/year wld give AAU approx $15.5m gross profit/ year. That gives Kerim a lot of scope to pay a divi ($2m), further explore Salinbas and Red Rabbit ($7m) and a couple of $million to start on Cyprus. And with this route the following year, and year after etc we have the same money available, and much more with Tasvan in production.

If Salinbas is good enough to go into production, then imo we'll certainly get a sale or JV later on, with better terms, once more gold is discovered.

[bigglesbingham] 24/2/2020 21:27

There is a big unknown and that is what Kerim will make of the $30 and the fact re the shorter time period to realise a reward for shareholders . But yes any deal needs to be analysed once the facts are known.

[temujiin] 24/2/2020 20:46

Whatever is finally agreed between the current JV partners, and proposed new JV, I think all SH's need to look at the deal objectively and at the numbers + best assumptions of developments both with, and without a deal.

Currently, doing the maths on Kizil and Tasvan (POG, AISC, LOM, Reserve and predicted reserve) I see approx $220m future gross profits for AAU SH's as things stand in the next 8 years, plus we will own 100% of Salinbas.

On the other hand the MOU will reduce future gross profit to approx $100m and we only own 23.5% of Salinbas....in return for $30m up front, approx $14.5m spent on Salinbas development and a loan to get Salinbas into production.

AAU's future is bright with either option, and share price should be much higher with either option, but I feel the best route is to continue reaping 50% of the gold mine benefits whilst we increase our 100% owned Salinbas asset. There's plenty of time to JV or sell it in 2 or 3 years, once we know how good it is.

[5huu] 24/2/2020 19:35

Well the numbers are certainly improving every day here with what's happening to both Silver & Gold prices. Whilst some may feel that means the JV should be renegotiated, another way to look at that is that should the JV proceed then the all partners will be that much more eager to take advantage of these market prices for PM's.

[kirbs4] 24/2/2020 10:30

All completely normal. I posted at 3.10 that it is healthy for the share price in the long run. At every 10% you get rid of speculators and gain new longer termers/new speculators who will hold on for another 10%. Sure enough, 3.40 (10% higher) and we're shifting out this round of speculators.Im pleased to see it personally, will help the leg up to 3.75.

[thanksamillion] 24/2/2020 10:25

Jeees, unbelieveable we are down.

[charles clore] 24/2/2020 09:50

I can't see why the full details of the merger cannot be made public or at least a list of pros and cons without giving the name of the big cheese. Of course it could all come to nothing and we could go it alone or with a JV buy-in for just Salinas.

[nov31] 24/2/2020 09:41

Gold at $1,688 and still going strong!

[kaos3] 24/2/2020 09:10

at the top of the expected gold boom the oz in the ground will be worth hundrets of dollars.

some will do better by just waiting or by sound combination of activity and waiting?

[mad foetus] 24/2/2020 09:05

I think there are some people who have bought on margin getting calls and so having to sell a few things where there is liquidity but suspect the initial panic is over and I've added here just now

[thanksamillion] 24/2/2020 09:04

Seems quite a bit of top slicing going on today, far to early if you ask me.

[soulsauce] 24/2/2020 08:53

If the gold price had risen a few percent since the JV was proposed I wouldn't even mention it but 18% and counting is quite an increase.

If this was an oil deal I am sure it would make a material difference as oil in the ground price would have strengthened, don't see why it should be any difference for ounces in the ground.

[kaos3] 24/2/2020 08:31

as I see JV:

- financed till construction (for 30 mil + losing major part of ownership)
- loan for construction till production
- production and no cash till loan gets repaid (I assume=


- do we get some royalty?
- do we get some cash till the loan gets repaid
- do we get cash after the loan gets repaid (majority rules)
- what if partner does not perform - exit and penalty clause
etc

lets see

[plasybryn] 24/2/2020 08:25

It can do no harm for shareholders to suggest verbally they are concerned we are undervalue by the proposed deal in my opinion. There is no reason for them to think we are a push over. 23.5% is hardly something to get us all jumping up and down about, especially after all these years of hard graft and years of risk and dilution ably managed by Kerim and his team.I hope they realise that a lot of shareholders will want to be convinced this is in our best interest.

[erro] 24/2/2020 08:24

Hi soulsace - one thing we have to remember is that Ariana is not selling out in full but will be relying on the integrity of its future partners to be paid regularly its minority’s interest in the JVs and if the deal was to be renegotiated it could create bad feeling between the parties so I would caution against it. There is of course the argument for pulling out of the deal completely but I don’t think that would be a forward step. The good thing is that during a dd process the proposed purchaser will try to price chip and I think there is less likelihood of the happening now.

[bigglesbingham] 24/2/2020 08:17

I can understand the argument but there is also the counter argument that the JV will be for potentially ten years and the short term rise in gold which may be due to the Coronavirus may not be sustained over the medium term. However it certainly does AAU no harm .