Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 16:28

Charles: for some reason they haven't put the latest Panmure Gordon Note on the web site. I was told they had but I note that it is the one dated the 16th January and is just a Flash Note. There is a much fuller Note dated 24th January with a higher valuation and the matrix using more representative gold prices. I have just asked Michael if we can have that one posted. Fingers crossed.

[dixi] 17/2/2020 13:21

Slow attrition beyond 3p, but it is happening.

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 11:45

Latest PG note now on website.

[thanksamillion] 17/2/2020 10:50

Looks like a big buy in the background.

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 09:17

The window to buy in is looking tighter imo with the contract details now so close. But Quarterlies with details of our amazing low cost of production, could provide further impetus for those hitherto unaware we are one of the lowest cost producers. A only circa two months now to being Capex debt free.

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 08:07

On this premise I reckon we could receive the Contract in an RNS to peruse by end of February/early March given they probably have to give shareholders two weeks pre the General Meeting to ratify it. Keeping it within the exclusivity period.

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 07:15

Should say pre (not pres) the meeting.

[plasybryn] 17/2/2020 07:14

The exclusivity period to the end of March might mean they will want the shareholders' ratification (Gen. Meeting) completed within this time frame. Or else once the exclusivity period expires and with independent D.D. done, it presents a possible open and attractive opportunity for another interested party to take advantage. So perhaps things will actually move fairly quickly given shareholders will need at least two weeks to digest the final contract pres the meeting.

[temujiin] 16/2/2020 23:25

That wld be an acceptable deal Dixi in exchange for 53% of our 100% owned Salinbas project, and what could well be a multi million oz gold and silver acreage.

[dixi] 16/2/2020 20:02

How about new partner and Proccea pick up the tab proportionately for seeing Salinbas to production and AAU enjoy their % at no additional cost. Seems reasonable to me, that being the case.

[temujiin] 16/2/2020 19:12

New partner are paying $50m ($25 to AAU) for 53% of the profitable 10 year Kizil goldmine, plus Tasvan which can be up producing 30k 0z / yr in 2 or 3 years, for up to targeted 300,000 oz, plus all the other good stuff on our turf.... On this aspect alone its a very good deal for new partner, less so for us imo.

For 53% of Salinbas new partner is paying $5m plus $8m for

Additional drilling and resource estimation
Definitive Feasibility Study
EIA and permitting
Freehold land acquisition, public relations and new licences

Proccea will pay towards this, amount unknown but I'd estimate $6.5m
$8 + $6.5 = $14.5m. This is clearly nowhere near enough to get Salinbas into production.

So how good this deal is depends a lot on this para in the Nov RNS

Ariana will:

2. be free-carried on further costs associated with the development of the Salinbas Project.

I hope the JV deal, if there is one, does not leave anything to doubt about what exactly that means.

[dixi] 16/2/2020 16:06

I guess another company could bid for AAU, but surely a JV situation is by invitation only?

[plasybryn] 16/2/2020 15:16

But what is to stop it turning into one? And other suitors who have perhaps bided there time are suddenly prevented from taking any action as a result of the exclusivity contract. Is it only absence that makes the heart grow fonder?The sums involved here are likely small beer for our JV suitor.

[dixi] 16/2/2020 14:24

Thing is this is not a takeover bid. I would have thought the agreement between AAU and the JV partner is seen as a mutually beneficial event. I cannot see how another party could suddenly try to muscle in and get involved, it's not the type of situation. Due diligence at RR is quite probably because the new JV partner is stumping up huge wads of cash to AAU, and they need to know it's worth it. I cannot see the agreement varying now in greater favour to AAU as they have already agreed in principal, it strikes me that so far all parties are happy with progress to date.

[plasybryn] 16/2/2020 13:58

We have extended the "exclusivity " period meaning:- An exclusivity period is a length of time (usually 30 to 60 days) during which a seller is prohibited from carrying out or furthering activities that relate to the sale of a firm with parties other than the prospective buyer with whom they have signed a letter of intent.

[thanksamillion] 16/2/2020 11:54

mcmather

If your premise figures turn out to be correct then I can't argue with your maths.

Happy days.

[mcmather] 15/2/2020 13:03

Can’t see a 2nd / 3rd suitor at this stage. The new JV partner appears to have been chosen, in part at least, due to the ‘clout’ they carry in Turkish business / political circles. That will be useful to have on board for any owner going forward.

A potential alternative scenario, perhaps, a 2nd ball mill at Kiziltepe for annual production circa 50,000oz au to be up and running for 2021.

Tavsan to be up and running, producing 40,000oz au for 2022.

Salinbas to be nearing up and running, producing a minimum 50,000oz au towards the end of 2023.

Perhaps a suitor to purchase AAU in its entirety might consider striking in the run up to Tavsan coming on stream? £200-250m (20-25p a share) might do it with an exec role for KS in the purchasing company and MDV (and a few on here!) having got his retirement ticket?

[plasybryn] 15/2/2020 11:10

We've also still got the 2020 Guidance note to come out, but last year this wasn't issued until 12th March. I suspect they will complete D.D. before the end of March, meaning the shareholder General Meeting for ratification will be late March or early April. Another big one will be the latest resource estimation and mine plan for Kiziltepe (including hopefully an extended Life of Mine) which I half hope comes out before the Agreement is complete, adding further weight to a sweetener in the deal. Further Tavsan news isn't probably due till Q2. If one or more other suitors are sitting on the sidelines watching the D.D. play out, then presumably they will want to play their hand within these timescales.

[bigglesbingham] 15/2/2020 10:13

Was 22nd last year I'm expecting week Monday

[plasybryn] 15/2/2020 09:19

I'm hearing from Michael that he had a great trip to the Cape Town Conference - he goes each year. More than ever interest in what Ariana is doing. From the watch/view results on Vox and Hargreaves Lansdown that interest is clearly showing up here as well. You get the impression that there is a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to invest. The continuing bull run in gold & silver is going to put an ignition stick under the PM sector imo and Ariana is so well placed to benefit.

[soulsauce] 14/2/2020 23:04

Cheers Plasybryn sounds about right.

[plasybryn] 14/2/2020 22:52

I think you are soul sauce as Proccea aren't currently a JV partner in the Hot Gold corridor . So working with the JV partners ( Proccea & Mr Unknown) makes sense to me. But I can't see why a new party might enter the fray, as I said earlier. Take over bid by Mr Unknown or another player. So many possible scenarios, all value accretive imo.

[soulsauce] 14/2/2020 22:30

Kerim says we, so that excludes us, look forward to working with the JV parties. Would that include Proccea when they are already our JV partner.

May be I am reading too much in to it.

[plasybryn] 14/2/2020 22:18

Could just be referring to us plus Proccea + Mr unknown. Plural