Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 20/2/2020 13:29

A lot of gold miners are flat over the last week when all logic suggests they should be higher. Just needs patience

[mick1909] 20/2/2020 13:28

People shouldn't moan this isnt a traders share it's an investment share it has risen just over 50% in 3 months

[charles clore] 20/2/2020 13:26

Makes you feel like nothing will move the price the way we feel it deserves. Is AAU totally unloved by the city and destined to remain that way or will this majority takeover deal finally set things right?

[bigglesbingham] 20/2/2020 13:10

All comes to he who waits or words to that effect.

[paul280i] 20/2/2020 12:50

That note also has Centamin as a hold with a target price of 131, now 146. What's wrong with our SP?

[bigglesbingham] 20/2/2020 12:48

If you use $1620 gold they are predicting 6p the 4.37p at $1400.

[mick1909] 20/2/2020 12:35

I'm hoping they are off the mark with AAU and 6p target is more accurate

[mick1909] 20/2/2020 12:33

That broker note had FRES as a hold with a target price of 606p currently trading 710p so they dont get everything right

[shortarm] 20/2/2020 12:17

Looks like punter are gambling on other 'potentials' - good way to lose money!

[crossfirecssf] 20/2/2020 12:12

Not to mention that the $1616 gold price is currently 'in transit' to the next temporary 'sleep-over' at $1660-$1670. Again, the timing here could not be better.

[thanksamillion] 20/2/2020 12:12

Current gold rise being driven by Carona virus fears, believe me these fears will only get worse....much worse.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:56

And gold now $1615 and rising. As I said the perfect storm.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:55

I'm trying to get my head around why we still only have a share price of 3.2p.

When the MoU was announced gold was circa $1450. It is now $150 per oz higher.
Panmure Gordon use a gold price of c. $1400 in their valuations and I'm unclear if they take account of the silver credit which adds another circa $100 per oz.

P.G. also base the valuation on just 1 x NAV which some would suggest is conservative.

Looking through the numbers in details (Attributable Value) I could suggest that the P.G. asset valuations plus the injection of cash etc. have been used to frame the MofU terms. To me this suggests they are conservative.
This view is further strengthened when we take account of the facts that since they were drawn up, gold has materially increased in value, we've had excellent High grade zones identified at Tavsan (27/01/20)and Arzu South drill results (17/12/19) which should lead to a revised resource estimate for Kiziltepe during Q1 2020. Furthermore we know our Capex facility will be cleared by April and our cash balances will be considerably enhanced.
It's a great shame that the current share price doesn't more accurately reflect the current underlying value of the business as this would provide greater emphasis for the deal to be enhanced upon imo. Anyone agree?

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:38

And this:-
We conclude that Ariana offers an exciting opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a new and profitable Gold producer, for which the benefits of a weaker host currency (Turkish Lira) have left the operation as one of the lowest cost operations globally. We believe the partnership with Proccea and the existing finance arrangements offer investors the confidence that future development projects will also be managed professionally with a lower risk of delays, additional capital costs, and equity dilution.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:36

And this:-
we have undertaken a review of the Ariana portfolio. Using a 10% discount rate, we estimate that Ariana is currently trading on a P/NAV of 0.6x. This discount to our normalised intuitive multiple of 1.0x NAV (assuming our NPV estimates incorporates the changes in production, future production efficiencies and any change in costs) looks anomalous given the low-cost nature of the operations at Kiziltepe and the potential for incrementally high margin production growth. Further supporting our view is that, at our 10% cost of capital, the long-term price of Gold to justify the current equity valuation is below $1,000/oz, further providing support to our positive recommendation.
Reiterate Buy recommendation with increased target price of 4.37p (3.60p) – Our valuation, generated by using a blended average of NAV per share, earnings per share and cash flow per share implies a target price of 4.37p (3.60p). Our approach to evaluating Ariana now uses the same methodology as that applied to our senior Gold equity valuations. The rationale for this change is to reflect what we believe is the final evolution in the Ariana investment case, from an exploration and development company to one that is also profitable and cash generative and is therefore an acknowledgement of this evolution

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:33

And this of course re the Capex debt:
We anticipate the remaining balance to be fully repaid by April 2020, providing a material release of capital for the JV to utilise accordingly.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:30

I liked these remarks from the latest Panmure Gordon Note on page 16. "Material re-rating"
Last quarter we included Ariana Resources, which subsequently announced a tentative approach (in the form of an MoU) that indicates significant value in the operating asset as well as providing a financing option for the company’s development asset. We maintain the view that while smaller than its peers, the cash generative nature of its operations coupled with a highly prospective pipeline of development assets leaves us believing a material re-rating is due for the company. At our 10% discount rate, the company is trading on an equivalent Gold price of just $1,000/oz.

[bigglesbingham] 20/2/2020 11:18

Don't get selling ahead of Monday Tuesday quarterlies!!

[moneymaker2015] 20/2/2020 00:45

It’s nice to see a valuation higher than the current share price As biggles says, we just need a catalyst of positive news to get this going.

As much as some people may not want us to bring in a partner and split the proceeds, this is what will get the share price moving fastest, coincided with a small special divi. After that we have repayment of the loan, quarterly production results, financials in June and then further project updates. Once we have a catalyst, provided nothing unexpected happens, we’re likely to receive continuous positive news this year.

It’s been a nice gradual increase since I bought in two years ago, but I see this as being our year of finally getting some traction going. The only thing that may prevent it is not bringing a partner on board, although ironically that wouldn’t be detrimental to us either.

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 23:30

Gold $1612 nice

[charles clore] 19/2/2020 13:39

The latest PG report is superb imho and I can see investors taking the plunge based on that.

[swallowsflysouth] 19/2/2020 13:33

Soulsauce am expecting share price to go up to-day, just taking its time probably due to recent increases.

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 11:54

It's very reassuring and I see 5p sooner rather than later with a following wind

[thanksamillion] 19/2/2020 10:19

I love that report.

Especially:- that they now value AAU using methods used on senior Gold
equity valuations.

The rationale for this change is to reflect what is believed to be the final evolution in the Ariana investment case, from an exploration and development company to one that is also profitable and cash generative.