Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 23/2/2020 23:59

I think SH's were sold a bit short from day one. New JV getting basically a free carry plus extra $ to have a pop at what Salinbas has to offer is not in our best interests atm, and imo. certainly not if POG keeps rising.

[soulsauce] 23/2/2020 23:45

There has to be a point if PMs keep on strengthening that Kerim has to insist on the deal being sweetened to be fair to shareholders. I would suggest at $1650 gold we have already crossed that threshold.

[soulsauce] 23/2/2020 23:21

PMs off to a very interesting start.

[thanksamillion] 23/2/2020 20:31

Dont see the virus situation improving any time soon, in fact, at a some point in the not too distant future the sporadic hot spots will turn to widespread outbreak, though that may be a month or two yet. At that point, the authorities will throw up their hands in horror and just let it rip. Meanwhile gold will just continue to be more and more sought after.

For the individual and loved ones, I repeat my earlier message take care and prepare.

[soulsauce] 23/2/2020 20:09

I think it is safe to say that the coronavirus situation has not improved since Friday, in fact one could argue it has become much worse so I suspect another strong week for gold.

I think we would all hope the virus situation improves even if it comes at a much lower gold price.

[charles clore] 23/2/2020 17:46

Biggles - I wouldrather have my money all in this than in a bank at present!

[bigglesbingham] 23/2/2020 16:44

Share prophets :: Numbers from Kiziltepe first: we knew the gold production numbers already but not the prices involved. The news was that 7,318 ounces of gold and 107,074 ounces of silver (as a by-product) were produced in Q4 with an average sale price of $1484 per ounce of gold. If you factor in the silver by-product, the average revenue per ounce of gold produced was $1736, against an operating cost of $500. Broadly speaking, that means Kiziltepe threw off just over $9 million in Q4 – around £7 million – from gold/silver production.By the end of Q4 the bank debt still due (to be paid off by April) was down to $4.1 million. On those numbers it is pretty clear there will be no problem seeing the bank off as scheduled and from then on, Kiziltepe will be a cash-cow and with gold having risen again to $1643 the numbers will be even stronger going forward. In theory, once all loans from JV partners Ariana and Proccea have been repaid the proceeds will be split 51-49% in favour of Ariana although the current corporate action discussions may well change all that. There were some other interesting tit-bits offered up: the mine-life (currently standing at 8 years) is due to be extended to 10 years if a further 40,000 ounces of gold can be upgraded from exisiting resources to reserves – which management says it is confident of achieving.Further, on the subject of increasing production at Kiziltepe, the company tells us that Tavsan is offering the opportunity to raise annual production from the current targeted 20,000 oz per year to 50,000 oz. Tavsan is sounding ever more certain.But right now the big question is will the proposed deal to sell off part of Kiziltepe and Salinbas to bring in a new JV partner get over the line. If it does, then Ariana's ownership will drop to 23.5% but exploration and construction at Salinbas will be catered for by the new partner and Ariana will suddenly have $30 million of cash in the bank and the company has indicated that a dividend will be offered.Late of Friday at no-one-is-watching o'clock (6.27pm) it was announced the chairman Michael de Villiers had shifted a third of a million shares from his personal holding into his SIPP (his overall holding being unchanged). Now one could argue that he was effectively bagging the tax break but there is another interpretation: that he doesn't want to pay income tax on dividends. The implication is therefore that the corporate action deal (which has been delayed to the end of March, if it is to go ahead) is seen as likely to go through – and that would mean a nice tasty dividend cheque later this year. In my piece on Ariana (AAU) of nine days ago it was pointed out in the comments section by Putneywill that perhaps the headline should have been AIM Company Board Tells Truth with regard to progress on the proposed corporate action. Now we have AIM Company releases 6.27pm RNS on Friday night which is not a Red Flag.We shall see what happens, but at the current share price of 3.45p Ariana's market capitalisation is now sitting at £37 million. For that we get half of Kiziltepe and all of Salinbas (with a bunch of bills to pay before seeing any prospect of production). If the deal all goes through we will have $30 million (around £23 million) and 23.5% of Kiziltepe and 23.5% of a fully funded Salinbas through to construction of a mine which could be throwing off 50,000 ounces a year, with someone else responsible for getting any bank loans to fund the construction.There are some who question the value of the proposed deal: on the face of it, Kiziltepe will be throwing off stack of cash but there will be exploration, construction costs (at Tavsan) and maintenance to pay for and so on. Put another way, Ariana would go from owning half of a 25,000 oz a year operation (so 12,500 oz gold) to 23.5% of 100,000 ounces with $30 million in the bank. I know which I would prefer – especially with Ariana's earn-in to copper-gold assets at Venus Minerals in Cyprus to look forward to.However you view it, the current share price in the climate of $1645 gold is not demanding and there is certainly speculative upside for the new investor. But having been shouting from the roof-tops to get in at prices as low at 1.1p, for those who have been in for the last three years it is time to top-slice: you haven't made any money until you sell and nobody has a crystal ball.The story is not over yet by any stretch of the imagination and I will be holding on to the majority of my shares as I look for 4p and then still more, but one does need to be sensible and not leave oneself overexposed to one relatively tiny AIM stock, however good and however honest and decent the management is.But it is hats off to head-honcho Kerim Sener and his team. Perhaps there is one final surprise headline to come: AIM Company to get Christmas Card from the Deputy Sheriff.

[uknighted] 23/2/2020 09:11

Petershares1 is another spam post!

[bigglesbingham] 22/2/2020 15:42

Another mention in share prophets contradictory as usual saying new punters pile in but Top slice .

[jaf1948] 22/2/2020 12:27

Not a lot but better than nothing. In today's Daily Express on the City page under 'Market Report':

'Gold miner Ariana Resources firmed 0.15p to 3.45p after posting record gross quarterly income of $12.78 million.'

[temujiin] 22/2/2020 09:54

Plas, if we use silver credit figure of $1,736, instead of $1,611 then predicted gross profits of Kizil for AAU, increase to over $80m for life if mine.

Tasvan isnt even included in these calculations.

[pauliewonder] 22/2/2020 08:24

Spam. Ignore

[run12] 22/2/2020 07:48

Spam - ignore

[plasybryn] 22/2/2020 07:27

average revenue per gold ounce of US$1,736 due to silver credit.

[plasybryn] 22/2/2020 07:11

Don't forget the silver credit.

[dixi] 22/2/2020 06:55

Erro - price has been diluted down over the following years to fund projects prior to becoming operational. Way back when share price was higher but market cap was lower.

[temujiin] 21/2/2020 23:57

Doing the Maths.

Correction to one of my earlier posts where I said this year Kizil produced $45m ''gross profit''. Now I've look again at the RNS that was ''gross income'', as Soul pointed out to me.

So, $45.1m with AISC of approx $500 and 27,985 oz = AAU averaged $1611/oz
Minus $500 AISC = $1,111/oz gross profit
times production 27,985 = $31.1m gross profit ... $15.5m to AAU

With a hoped for 134,445 oz left to mine a Kizil, we could reasonably expect to get
134,445 x $1,111 = $149m gross profit from Kizil, at current POG, $74.5m to AAU.

Apologies for my earlier miscalculation.

[loafofbread] 21/2/2020 22:17

Crumbs. They didn't do him any favours on the spread!

[paul280i] 21/2/2020 21:55

I bought in 2011 at 5p, just a few so that I would keep an eye on the company, added many more as the story progressed.

[erro] 21/2/2020 21:48

Have been looking at Arianas share price history and note that in 2006 the share price was 16p and even in 2011 the share price was 6p. Would be interested to know whether anyone on this board have invested since those dates and what was the investment criteria underpinning those share prices at that time. I can’t see how the company could have developed any better operationally in the last few years. Just a bit of background understanding would help especially the 16p! Great company. I would hope for a substantial dividend but would expect they will only announce one when the financial are finalised in June / July providing the deal goes through and their future plans are outlined

[bigglesbingham] 21/2/2020 20:10

I'm hoping div after April only half holding in support and isa least then another 20k can be moved