Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kirbs4] 21/2/2020 10:35

What also needs to be factored in to the Salinbas argument is that it is not a like for like comparison with our other assets so costs could well be higher. Wasn't one of the main reasons we were able to aquire it in the first place because of the level of effort required to mine there? To me, offloading that overhead and but still sharing in the profits is not a bad thing, particularly if the effort required significantly increases the production cost per oz.

[bigglesbingham] 21/2/2020 10:30

I'm sure they are doing everything possible to make sure previous barriers to paying a dividend are removed. Sure if my experience is anything to go by the accountants will be Holden to no one !

[dixi] 21/2/2020 10:26

Agree with that entirely. The BoD also stand to enjoy a very good payout from a divi too. A priority for shareholders.

[soulsauce] 21/2/2020 10:23

bigglesbingham it needs to be a priority.

I think shareholders will not be happy if after receiving all this money plus profits from RR they have not found a way to get a 'decent' divi to shareholders.

[trevor1234] 21/2/2020 10:22

Thank's Tem for putting the other side of the argument
I like most on hear get fed up with idiots on other boards spouting rubbish for there own ends.I know Tem is a long term holder and it is helpful for somebody to not just follow the general consensus but put a reasoned argument why we all need to wait for the RNS on the Mou.
I don't often post but read the very good reasoned post's from the regulars,Thank you

[bigglesbingham] 21/2/2020 10:18

They need to sort financial obstacles out before dividend declared. I haven't seen anything which leads me to believe they have sorted that out but I'm sure they are working on it.

[soulsauce] 21/2/2020 10:14

Tem you should be able to get a good handle on net profit from the figures today with costs remaining at circa $500 per oz. Kerim has always maintained that AISC are not a million miles from that figure.

But who is to say what Kerim has ear-marked for that money? And we can not quantify the cost benefit of having this third party coming on board and being part of one of the biggest gold producers in Turkey in much shorter order than going it alone.

[moneymaker2015] 21/2/2020 09:49

Assuming the deal does come to a positive conclusion at the end of next month. I wonder if when we get the RNS confirming all the details, that they’ll also release details of any intentions to payout a special divi shortly after. It would be nice to know their intentions with all the money we’ll be receiving considering we’re not strapped for cash at the minute anyway.

On a positive note, with gold expected to keep rising, if we do bring Tavsan into play. With only 25% of 50k+ oz, we’ll be in a similar cash position to what we’re currently making anyway. Not matter what, we’re on to a winner!

[oilbuy] 21/2/2020 09:35

5p short term target for me

[thanksamillion] 21/2/2020 09:16

Not forgeting the odd exceptional item in the FR, which last year drastically reduced the EPS ( currency conversion costs or something).

[soulsauce] 21/2/2020 09:13

Tem, a bit skewed balancing 'gross' profit against a definitive payment. Think you should use net profit if you are going to use that argument.
And even then using that argument you are suggesting the definitive payment is not going to make anything over the next ten years, you can not possibly know.

[dixi] 21/2/2020 09:10

Developing Salinbas alone may not be a practical option. Unless somebody has AAU's arm up their back, I do not think they will make any errors of judgement with this.

[temujiin] 21/2/2020 09:07

Indeed 8rad, the MOU/deal needs to be looked at in commercial terms, and we would go down from 51% to 24%, so giving up 27% for $25m.

This year gross profit was $45m, ($22.5m to AAU) Under the proposal our share would be approx only $10.5m, giving up $12m in gross profit a year!

$25m upfront, to lose $12m every year for 10 years, does not make sound commercial sense to me so again it hinges on the terms of the Salinbas aspect. If that part isn't brilliant, then I will be arguing against this JV as our future would seem brighter without them.

[gaddy88] 21/2/2020 09:05

Just a little more patience needed for terms of JV. It's nice to see this gradually rise into that news and today solidified that. Silly rises bring in a crowd largely working on a short term basis. Small rises like we have keep the traders off the radar, not much money to make in 5% rises.

[dixi] 21/2/2020 09:04

Salinbas could be massive compared to everything else here. If there is no further cost to AAU to develop this asset (they do suggest as such), then their % take, and in an assumed much shorter timeframe, makes the JV very appealing. Then AAU can go about their considerable expertise in discovering new value.

[thanksamillion] 21/2/2020 09:03

WRT the JV terms, I believe that we need to reflect on the period 2012-2020 when AAU was financing the development of the existing production plant - see share price chart. I realise that we are now producing cash profits going forward, however the carry on Salinbas is going to make me sleep easy during the next 3-5 years, and could well be worth more than some believe.

[kaos3] 21/2/2020 09:02

a lot of selling ???
interesting

[8rad] 21/2/2020 08:57

Tem...I quite agree that all the terms need greatly clarifying since we indeed are giving up a lot.... namely at current price of gold and silver almost $1million PER WEEK profit at Kiziltepe alone.

[temujiin] 21/2/2020 08:45

Scoscribler, new JV are offering just $13m for 53% of Salinbas, which we own 100%.

It may be the sweetener in the deal is that they take it to production with no more drain on AAU, and that would very good, but I'm not 100% that that is what they are offering so am yet to be convinced though open minded atm.

[ileeman] 21/2/2020 08:37

Great results.

Gold on multi year highs $1630, you would think 4p+ soon after day traders exit.

[scorscribler] 21/2/2020 08:34

But, Tem, what is lost here will be gained at Salinbas.

[kirbs4] 21/2/2020 08:30

These mms do frustrate me, again this morning the share price rise was massively inflated vs the trading volume and is now retracing. They almost factor in the potential before the trades which no doubt dilutes the buying.

[temujiin] 21/2/2020 08:28

Not sure about zero chance loafofbread. But just doing the maths looking at Kizil alone, hypothetically say $40m gross profit/ year x say 10 years if we include satellites = $400m gross profit. $200m to AAU.

New JV is offering $50m ($25 to AAU) for 53% of Kizil mine AND Tasvan. This does not look like a good deal for AAU.

[bigglesbingham] 21/2/2020 08:25

These results were predictable to me so I'm dam sure they were predictable to all parties in the potential deal. Can't see deal altering one bit personally apart from the desire for the deal to be done becomes stronger. They all knew what was coming.

[loafofbread] 21/2/2020 08:15

I bet the 'other' company wished they had signed a few months back because there is zero chance of them getting the same terms now!