Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:38

And this:-
We conclude that Ariana offers an exciting opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a new and profitable Gold producer, for which the benefits of a weaker host currency (Turkish Lira) have left the operation as one of the lowest cost operations globally. We believe the partnership with Proccea and the existing finance arrangements offer investors the confidence that future development projects will also be managed professionally with a lower risk of delays, additional capital costs, and equity dilution.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:36

And this:-
we have undertaken a review of the Ariana portfolio. Using a 10% discount rate, we estimate that Ariana is currently trading on a P/NAV of 0.6x. This discount to our normalised intuitive multiple of 1.0x NAV (assuming our NPV estimates incorporates the changes in production, future production efficiencies and any change in costs) looks anomalous given the low-cost nature of the operations at Kiziltepe and the potential for incrementally high margin production growth. Further supporting our view is that, at our 10% cost of capital, the long-term price of Gold to justify the current equity valuation is below $1,000/oz, further providing support to our positive recommendation.
Reiterate Buy recommendation with increased target price of 4.37p (3.60p) – Our valuation, generated by using a blended average of NAV per share, earnings per share and cash flow per share implies a target price of 4.37p (3.60p). Our approach to evaluating Ariana now uses the same methodology as that applied to our senior Gold equity valuations. The rationale for this change is to reflect what we believe is the final evolution in the Ariana investment case, from an exploration and development company to one that is also profitable and cash generative and is therefore an acknowledgement of this evolution

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:33

And this of course re the Capex debt:
We anticipate the remaining balance to be fully repaid by April 2020, providing a material release of capital for the JV to utilise accordingly.

[plasybryn] 20/2/2020 11:30

I liked these remarks from the latest Panmure Gordon Note on page 16. "Material re-rating"
Last quarter we included Ariana Resources, which subsequently announced a tentative approach (in the form of an MoU) that indicates significant value in the operating asset as well as providing a financing option for the company’s development asset. We maintain the view that while smaller than its peers, the cash generative nature of its operations coupled with a highly prospective pipeline of development assets leaves us believing a material re-rating is due for the company. At our 10% discount rate, the company is trading on an equivalent Gold price of just $1,000/oz.

[bigglesbingham] 20/2/2020 11:18

Don't get selling ahead of Monday Tuesday quarterlies!!

[moneymaker2015] 20/2/2020 00:45

It’s nice to see a valuation higher than the current share price As biggles says, we just need a catalyst of positive news to get this going.

As much as some people may not want us to bring in a partner and split the proceeds, this is what will get the share price moving fastest, coincided with a small special divi. After that we have repayment of the loan, quarterly production results, financials in June and then further project updates. Once we have a catalyst, provided nothing unexpected happens, we’re likely to receive continuous positive news this year.

It’s been a nice gradual increase since I bought in two years ago, but I see this as being our year of finally getting some traction going. The only thing that may prevent it is not bringing a partner on board, although ironically that wouldn’t be detrimental to us either.

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 23:30

Gold $1612 nice

[charles clore] 19/2/2020 13:39

The latest PG report is superb imho and I can see investors taking the plunge based on that.

[swallowsflysouth] 19/2/2020 13:33

Soulsauce am expecting share price to go up to-day, just taking its time probably due to recent increases.

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 11:54

It's very reassuring and I see 5p sooner rather than later with a following wind

[thanksamillion] 19/2/2020 10:19

I love that report.

Especially:- that they now value AAU using methods used on senior Gold
equity valuations.

The rationale for this change is to reflect what is believed to be the final evolution in the Ariana investment case, from an exploration and development company to one that is also profitable and cash generative.

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 10:02

Well done plas ! Th

[bigglesbingham] 19/2/2020 10:00

Agree totally but once the catalyst materialises the rise will be ever more pronounced.

[mcmather] 19/2/2020 09:59

Cheers plas; first document on here:

[soulsauce] 19/2/2020 09:57

Surprised there is so little interest here this morning given gold has burst through $1600 with aplomb.
If RR maintains another 7k oz for Q1 that is £5.25m pure profit for the partners after costs.
Crazy that we are only £33m mkt cap.

[plasybryn] 19/2/2020 09:50

Great news: Michael has just confirmed the latest Panmure Gordon Note is on the web site, dated 24th January 2020 with the 4.37p target. It is called Gold in Q1 - The Quarterly Nugget. You will need to scroll down to page 18 for the specific commentary on Ariana. It carries on to page 24.
Look on page 20 for the Gold related valuation matrix. On 1 X NAV @ $1600 gold and a 7% discount we get a share price target of 5.35p

[plasybryn] 18/2/2020 16:28

The Ariana perfect storm.

[thanksamillion] 18/2/2020 16:06

Gold has Just breached $1600 though I expect a small pull back.

[thanksamillion] 18/2/2020 14:35

Someone just stumped up £10k.

[plasybryn] 18/2/2020 13:55

Gold & silver on the up. $1600 gold very close now. Just think of our margins now allowing for the silver credit as well. Nice

[thanksamillion] 18/2/2020 11:35

Slowly slowly, new investors need time to adjust to the true value here.

[bigglesbingham] 18/2/2020 10:46

They've got to be hungry for stock