Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[oli12] 04/11/2020 07:15

Positive no news today IMO.

[the deacon] 03/11/2020 17:21

Apparently Adaro produced 1.21mt in Q2

[the deacon] 03/11/2020 17:20

Picked up from Cacher on LSE Kestrel Coal Mine (Kestrel) In 9M20, saleable coal production volume at Kestrel reached 4.06 Mt, 15% lower than in 9M19. Meanwhile its coal sales volume of 4.35 Mt in 9M20, was 7% lower y-o-y. In 3Q20, Kestrel's saleable coal production volume was 0.87 Mt and coal sales volume was 1.10 Mt. Kestrel sold its hard coking coal mainly to major customers in the Asian markets and has contracted the majority of its sales for 2020. India remained as the largest sales destination in 9M20 followed by South Korea and Japan. Adaro Energy (48%) and EMR Capital Ltd (52%) own 80% of Kestrel.

[rounder2] 03/11/2020 16:01

£1.25+ tomorrow on what will no doubt be much much better trading update than is expected or priced in .....can even see £1.32 at the end of the week

[rounder2] 03/11/2020 15:44

Update is tomorrow 4th Nov, is my understanding

[starastar] 03/11/2020 10:20

I posted on this last week. Wed/Thu last week were conspicuous in the much reduced volume on the buy-back - almost felt like they were trying to postpone the buyback's end by a week. The sudden uptick on Fri/Mon was seems very deliberate - as of Monday evening, there was precisely £700k left to allocate to the buyback (I say precisely, they are actually £1 over). Interesting.

[sporazene2] 03/11/2020 08:28

very little stock available on the order book up to 120p suggests this will carry on moving northward.

regards the Q3 update, I think it would make more sense to wait until the IOC 2020 dividend is announced probably later in the month.

[oli12] 03/11/2020 07:37

It could be a good week to bury bad news or a bad week for positive news to get overlooked.... maybe the update will come next week, once the dust settles and the buyback is complete.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/11/2020 07:13

With almost 4M shares bought now and cGBP 4.25M spent it could be the case that the Q3 update comes after the buyback is completed next week..?

04.11.2019 last year but we will have to wait and find out... :o)

[farmers son] 02/11/2020 16:39

Price action suggests tomorrow for the update

[oli12] 02/11/2020 15:55

Thanks LLB. Looking forward to some Q3 numbers to digest.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/11/2020 15:52

#Oli12.. I'm expecting the Q3 trading update this week, possibly tomorrow.. :o)

[oli12] 02/11/2020 14:23

Are we due a little trading update this week? It’s been a quiet year.

[starastar] 29/10/2020 14:56

Yes, but there is an interesting (well, for geeks / enthusiasts) nuance to all this. Having also been running a daily spreadsheet, it has been interesting to note the daily increase in cash deployed from an average of c. £135k per day, with a marked 'step up' over recent days that would have seen the process complete by 4 November. However, yesterday was an anomaly, with a halving of the amount, despite the share price having softened (i.e. one would have thought in the company's interests to deploy up to the £200k+ that had been the norm in recent days). Clearly yesterday was a 'bad market' day... but not sure if that should affect the buyback rationale.

I am now intrigued to see what they announce tomorrow, as this has a marked difference on likely completion date for this little escapade.

[flagon] 28/10/2020 18:33

Ha ha ... you're quite correct :)

[farmers son] 28/10/2020 18:29

Per the daily RNS: Following the purchase, the Company will have 181,758,719 ordinary shares of 2p each in issue, of which 3,411,471 ordinary shares are held in treasury.

Glad to see your spreadsheet data entry skills are strong!

[flagon] 28/10/2020 10:57

Bit of free time so I've entered the daily share buyback amounts in a spreadsheet ...
running total is 3,411,471 bought. Not sure of the average price paid but if we assume £1.05 that equates to circa £3.6M ... about 2 weeks to go for full amount ?

ATB

[the deacon] 24/10/2020 14:40

Personally I think the royalty model makes a lot of sense when looking to invest in the mining sector. As you say, to buy up/do deals on assets during times when they're out of favour, then reaping those rewards when the cycle turns provides investors with an ideal mix. Personally I prefer a royalty company with some organic prospect generation - like Altius Minerals, EMX or Globex to name three - as there's always a pipeline supply, but APF have proven a smart, disciplined use of capital, and I'm very happy to have a good holding here.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/10/2020 13:54

APF have great potential going forward with their counter cyclical strategy, buying up royalty / dividend income streams when their corresponding commodities are depressed and the companies need financing as the capital markets dry up..

Now the commodity prices tide is turning fast and we can see the evidence in Copper/Nickel/Iron Ore/Gold/silver prices..

Being able to add around 100p has been a nice surprise, the buy back strategy agrees, and 100,000 UT matched in the last Friday auction at 109.6p.. :o)

[rimau1] 24/10/2020 12:48

Totally agree that there is value at these levels. Plenty of indications that H2 will be better than H1 with Coal demand improving (especially India) with iron ore and copper prices looking healthy my expectation is that we will get an encouraging Q3 update. Remember too heavy director buying pre buyback so the indicators look positive. Something i often forget is that this business model is counter cyclical, pick up cheap assets in times of distress so we should have new potential investment updates near term too. So i am mirroring APF by buying below book value to reap higher future dividends and capital growth

[pol123] 24/10/2020 11:49

Hell of a lot of value in AP at this price. I have taken a good chunk and expecting a move to the 150 level in short order.

longer term AP also looks strong with a continued move away from coal. Plus base metals are picking up steam. The next super cycle in BMs is already starting to play out.

I see there are a few who have been burnt and feel a need to justify there losses by posting class half full comments that hold no basis. Lol

[sporazene2] 22/10/2020 13:38

IOC announced their annual dividend on November 20th last year. There has been no dividend from IOC so far this year so given the recovery in production and the strong iron ore price I would imagine there is a good chance of a dividend this year. Any dividend from IOC would translate into an increased Q4 special dividend paid by LIORC imo.

Iron Ore price forecasts for next year also looking strong and Copper price also looking liking it could push on through $7K/tonne.

All of which bodes well for the Q3 update which is due soon.

GLA,

[swanvesta] 21/10/2020 12:16

I have found buywell is quite good at spotting lows. I presume he's buying at those points - all in the name.

[meanreverter] 21/10/2020 12:09

The main effect of China's ban on importing Australian coal will be to increase shipping costs. China's need for imported coal will have to be met from elsewhere, including more-distant exporting countries. In turn, countries that normally import coal from those sources will have to switch to new suppliers — the main one with spare capacity being now, of course, Australia.