Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[sporazene2] 16/12/2020 11:37

I've been a bit surprised at the muted reaction this morning. I have picked up a couple more tranches and it was difficult to buy in size first thing. It will be interesting to see how the LIORC stock price moves later, i dont have any after hours information from yesterday.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/12/2020 22:32

Sporazene2, that is a belter at CND 1.8 per share, 4 times the last one and GBP4.9M APF January income in our Q1-2020, unless the Q3 received in October was reinvested increasing our 7.01% holding or the GBP weakens before it is paid..

Looking forward, 4 quarters like that next year yielding GBP20M income will make a large correction to the FY2020 total I now estimate around GBP35-37.5M and representing 55% from the LIORC stream alone..

H2-2020 has proven to be a great opportunity to build a position here around 100-120p ahead of the known commodity price rises, and corresponding APF income for 2021 onward..

A penny or 2 tomorrow would not hurt, unless you are short then unlucky.. :o)

[sporazene2] 15/12/2020 21:45

$1.80 Q4 dividend is confirmed for LIORC. Excellent result and by my maths just short of £5m due.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/12/2020 15:12

#Sporazene, 2020 earnings have been subdued, but I can see a FY total of GBP35-40M pending Q4 contributions, down on 2019 yes, but considering a pandemic and supply chain/shipping/logistics/staffing/mine closures or interruptions and a crash in commodity prices then -25/30% for one year is not so bad, and it has given us the opportunity to gather shares at c100p..

The current royalties start adding up for 2021 with increased income from Mantos Blancos for starters, Largo will be stronger, the IOC dividend is payable to LIORC 17th this week so we should see some numbers there very soon, historical declared dates have been 10-14th Dec, if the 3.0MT Amapa ore stockpile is cleared there is USD4-5M in it for APF..

1% NSR royalty on the Salamanca uranium USD10M
0.5% NSR from Candente approx USD5M a year, but this could evolve to a larger %..
2% GRR from Dugbe will be around USD5M a year
1.23% GRR from Incoa USD2-3M a year forever
1.25% GRR from Piaui will add USD5M when scaled up
1% NSR from Noront resources
2 new royalties work in progress for 2020 yet to be confirmed

8 more royalties between 2021-2025

Existing royalties all delivering will offset Kestrel by 2025, but we should have a total of around 25 income streams by the time Kestrel expires with some self funded from interest/income/dividends received, the loan principles received and ready to go again at 10%.. :o)

[bolador] 13/12/2020 13:36

The recent purchase of £ five million pounds worth of shares in APF by APF at 107p provides a great view into the managements thinking. The shares have not been cancelled and are treated as an investment. The share price is at present, as we all know, held down by coal royalty income (less than 40% of all from Kestel and Narrabi) such income as a proportion of total income is falling all the time and being set off by rising commodity prices and new non coal projects coming online (see above post 9806 and 9807)for which Goldman Sachs has forecast rising prices for 2021.

Browsing investors passing by this page might note the 7% income covered 2.3 times and a pe ratio of 6.

[sporazene2] 13/12/2020 11:37

Laurence Llewelyn Binliner - it certainly looks as though the Candente transaction with Fortescue was set up to enable them to take control of the asset at an appropriate time, this would be excellent news for us.

It will be interesting to see the feasibility study with the latest copper price assumptions so that we can potentially see the income stream for APF. I would say that it appears from recent updates as though the development plan may phase up to full production over an extended period of time, vs spend the full $1B+ capex cost in one hit.

I was also interested in seeing how one of our latest revenue generating acquisitions might shape up in 2021 - Mantos Blancos.

This was for two main reasons, firstly we paid a decent chunk for it in 2019 and the copper price is up about 35% since then. YTD has been pretty subdued but getting back to steady state production next year with a higher copper price, plus the prospect of the de bottlenecking project to further increase production some time in 2021, will be a further demonstration of the decreasing reliance on Kestrel revenue.

We were told that production at the half year stage was down 15% due to unplanned stoppages. However, looking back at the 9 month update from 2019 shows we made £300K. Now, by my calculations that was for one month of production since the acquisition closed a few days after the August 31st announcement. The copper price was around 2.50-2.60, at the point. Assuming steady state production at 2019 levels and todays prices gives us ~£5m per year of contributions at constant currency, before the production increase.

I am also expecting to see LIORC Q4 divided announcement next week. 2021 starting to look very interesting.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/12/2020 08:42

#Sporazene2, the more digging I did yesterday the more investment case compelling progress I uncovered, Fortesque now own 19.99% of Candente and have a seat on the board, plus an engineer there moving it forward..

Since 2004, Candente Copper has drilled more than 72,000m in over 240 drill holes to define a 7.5B pounds Measured and Indicated, plus 1.4B pounds Inferred Porphyry Copper Deposit, with excellent expansion potential through two nearby 100% owned porphyry targets.

In March 2011 the full PFS progress report was completed and returned exceptional economics, with an after-tax (restated in January 2017) NPV of US$922M, an IRR of 17.3%, and a payback period of 4.4 years using the base case US$2.25 copper and an NPV8 rate..

That was the thick end of a Billion dollar project at just 2.25/lb Copper, at $3.50/lb the profits are as massive as the reserves and resources with Copper production of 262 Million pounds a year and an initial mine life of 22 years..

US Gov direct USD 25M investment into Piaui Nickel to get that moving forward..

Four mile income is currently reduced as they are in court looking to recover the proper royalty income calculations...

Then there are the new royalties to come, as our projects come online over the coming 3-5 years we will not be missing Kestrel much as substitutions over shadow the income...

APF are a growing managed royalty/dividend investment company with no management fees and a 7/8% income at todays prices.. :o)

[sporazene2] 12/12/2020 21:27

Laurence Llewelyn Binliner ; Candente looks very interesting. Especially since Fortescue took a 20% stake there.

Regards Amapa, given the iron ore price a further investment would make a lot of sense and would help to plug the hole left by Kestral, although it doesnt really fit into the new strategy.

[flagon] 12/12/2020 15:49

LLB re Amapa

"The Group we will be claiming its royalty entitlements over any stockpile sales." That's something I wasn't certain about ... Ta.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/12/2020 13:08

#Flagon, good find, thanks for sharing..

Progress on multiple royalty streams now as they get ever closer to a mine build, production and income, Salamanca, Piaui, Dugbe, our Incoa calcium carbonate project phase 2 investment should also happen in 2021 following Orions phase 1..

Hoping to have some news pre year end on the next 2 royalties currently work in progress and we can expect those to be in the battery metal space, and the next update is due around Jan 20th..

Dugbe - the group has a 2% life of mine NSR royalty and retains its change of control protection which entitles it to recover its US$15m investment in certain circumstances.

Tucano - Beadel were bought out by Great Panther, now run as a gold mine and our royalty does not include precious metals there (yet)..

Amapa - The Group has a 1% life of mine GRR on all iron ore and other non-precious minerals, we also note the progress Cadence Minerals is making in trying to bring the Amapá project back online, following a court supervised reorganisation paving the way towards the establishment of a joint venture to inject new capital into the project. The Group we will be claiming its royalty entitlements over any stockpile sales. Cadence has reported that discussions with the senior secured creditors are progressing well. In addition, the Brazilian courts have reaffirmed its decision to allow the shipment of the 3Mt of iron ore currently sitting as a stockpile in the port facilities.

Candente Copper corp - Cañariaco copper project - over which the Group has a 0.5% NSR royalty
In June 2018, Entrée Resources sold the subsidiaries that directly or indirectly hold the Royalty to Anglo Pacific Group PLC (LSE: APF; TSX: APY) ("Anglo Pacific") The Cañariaco copper project includes the Cañariaco Norte copper-gold-silver porphyry deposit, as well as the adjacent Cañariaco Sur and Quebrada Verde porphyry prospects, porphyry VMS deposits are massive by name and massive by nature.. :o)

[flagon] 12/12/2020 10:52

While we wait for the next deal ...

Wyloo Metals to purchase cornerstone position in Noront Resources from Resource Capital Fund V L.P.

Link :

... Wyloo Metals seeks to work closely with all stakeholders to accelerate projects through the development cycle while meeting the highest international environmental, social and governance standards.

The Group has a 1% life of mine NSR royalty over a number of claims on the Black Thor, Black Label and Big Daddy chromite deposits owned by TSX-listed Noront Resources Limited (‘Noront’), in the Ring of Fire region of Northern Ontario, Canada.

A bottom drawer royalty that will come good but not anytime soon I suspect. ATB.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/12/2020 18:29

30.10.2020 .. Following the recent grant of the UL, and more than 120 previously granted permits and favourable reports by the relevant authorities at the local, regional, federal and European Union levels, the Authorisation for Construction for the uranium concentrate plant as a radioactive facility ("NSC II") is now the only pending approval required to commence full construction of the Salamanca mine..

The Group has a 1% life of mine NSR royalty on the Salamanca uranium project, in addition to this being a positive development for the Group’s royalty, Anglo Pacific also owns just under 7% of Berkeley Energia, and 1 step closer to a another new income stream after the court ruling today..

[flagon] 11/12/2020 15:58

Berkeley Energia soars as court appeal against uranium plant is thrown out

Link :

[sporazene2] 11/12/2020 15:56

LIORC now $32 :)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/12/2020 12:32

#sporazene2 .. the next IOC dividend is payable to LIORC on 17.12.2020, so we will see the resulting base dividend and special printed, we know Iron ore has gone up since so the next 1 is going to be a bit more special.. :o)

APF will receive its 7.01% share (USD 4.7M) on 25.01.2021 to start our year off nicely, even more so with a sinking post brexit USD-FX..

It will be interesting to see if the LIORC Q2/Q3 received dividend got or gets reinvested..

In other news more progress at Salamanca, Dec 11 (EFE) 12/11/2020 12:45 - The Supreme Court has confirmed the legality of the prior authorization to the concentrate plant granted to the company Berkeley Minera Spain and which it plans to locate in the uranium mine scheduled in the municipality of Retortillo (Salamanca).

According to a press release sent this Friday by the multinational, the Supreme Court has not accepted the appeal filed by Foro de Izquierdas-Los Verdes and Adeco Ecologistas en Acción against the prior authorization of the concentrates plant..

[orinocor] 11/12/2020 11:45

A hard brexit will sink the pound and increase earnings due to the pound/dollar exchange rate

[sporazene2] 10/12/2020 19:48

Indeed, why not $4 Laurence Llewelyn Binliner? Looking at the iron ore price in 2019 it didnt break above $120. One of the possible headwinds could be USD weakness which is expected to come into play next year.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/12/2020 16:17

#sporazene2, the iron ore deposits in the Labrador City area occur as specular hematite and magnetite, generally in the ratio of 65:35. IOC has mineral reserves and resources of 1.3 billion tonnes and 1.8 billion tonnes, respectively, with an average grade of approximately 38% iron.

That is quite a lot, and should keep us going for some considerable time.. :o)

A 2019 repeat 3-4CND per share total LIORC dividends for 2021 looks achievable, and if the Q3 dividend gets reinvested even better...

Largo were up +10% today too, Vanadium is on a good run..

[sporazene2] 10/12/2020 11:44

seems as though we didnt break out of this downtrend that I flagged for the moment.


if iron ore holds onto gains above $145 and LIORC above $30, it seems like only a matter of time before we break the 200 day MA and late September high of 129p.

GLA

[swanvesta] 10/12/2020 10:01

Woodhawk, he's just trying to shake out the last few weak holders.

[woodhawk] 09/12/2020 23:46

swanvesta, that's right, I repeatedly come across him when I'm bottom-fishing some stock or other. A great contrarian indicator! Why he believes his ludicrous posts make any difference whatsoever to the share price, is another matter.

[gwillerz78] 09/12/2020 20:19

What is buywell? Where can I view / access?

[swanvesta] 09/12/2020 14:22

I seriously think buywell is a genius.