Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[piedro] 11/6/2013 13:53

haydock,

what is the production timetable?

[piedro] 11/6/2013 12:13

Awaiting announcement from APF
Re: Engenho and Tocantins royalty

[quepassa] 08/6/2013 17:16

The reason I appeared "suddenly" as you put it was because of the opening two lines of your post 6249 which you hastily withdrew once the gross and misleading errors of the post were brought to light.

Can you please re-post the first two lines of your original message?

If you do, then you will see why I reappeared.

Just as I did when gavapentin recently and politely asked for my views on 14th. May.

It would appear from this that certain investors are keen to hear my views which perhaps present a counter- balance to the otherwise one-way traffic on this board.

You say that I "suddenly reappeared". As you are no doubt aware I have regularly posted on this bb for some years now. My last posts were:-

15/5 6223
15/5 6230
16/5 6231
30/5 6238
7/6 6250
7/6 6252

Perhaps you have an unusual interpretation of what the word sudden means.

However, as I say, please re-post the first two lines of your initial message which were in bold lettering and underlined which prompted the latest traffic. My guess is that you won't.

As I have said before I am not shorting this stock but it is precisely investors like you who have piqued my curiosity to such an extent that I am and remain keen to follow this stock.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 08/6/2013 17:08

Broker Views for Anglo Pacific Group
Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes
03 Jun 13 Anglo Pacific... Finncap Buy 232.00 320.00 279.00 Reiterates
13 Feb 13 Anglo Pacific... share price Angel Buy 232.00 - - Reiterates








hxxp://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/APF/Anglo-Pacific-Group

[christh] 08/6/2013 16:47

QuePassa,

strange you appear all of a sudden.
You are not even an investor or a shareholder in APF.
I know you must be shorting this stock otherwise you wouldnt be bearish
and picking all that is not your liking.

Fair enough the trustee withdrew the share option (which I misread being hasty to post it) but now they have to work harder to be offered the share option.
So we should expect a higher performance from the management.
Remember the company was in the FTSE250 about 6 months ago.
The price was over 340p and is now undervalued and oversold.

The script divi is not offered as the current share price is below the nav which is another point made to the market.
New royalites expected to start this year and added to the existing royalties which hopefully will improve both share price and dividend.
The dividend is very good considering the share price offering a very good yield
when comparing companies with bigger capitalisation with less yield.

And most important of all this company is Debt free with more than £20 milllion
in the bank.



So go and look elsewhere and leave APF alone!

[noslien] 08/6/2013 11:02

QuePassa - Well OK that 6249 was withdrawn, but I agree acknowledging the error would have been the right thing to do.

[quepassa] 08/6/2013 10:12

the nonsense/misleading information previously posted in 6249 about Director Buying has been withdrawn and the post altered entirely to mention something completely different.

no acknowledgement or apology offered for the initial erroneous post.

funny that, innit?

QP

[noslien] 07/6/2013 13:47

As QuePassa says the performance of APF has been poor, but, how much of this is down to the company and how much to the state of the raw materials market? If you compare APF with RIO or BHPB the charts are much the same. I don't think management have made too many mistakes, and there is much they could do little about e.g. the long wall changeover. The yield is still pretty good and as for price, well that's very much a play on the raw materials markets - which I think may well remain weak for a while. If you are believer in the long term potential of resources stocks then APF is not a bad bet; if not then look elsewhere.

[quepassa] 07/6/2013 12:25

well i guess that the company thought the share awards were "reasonable" when awarded three years ago.

compare the share price performance of apf over three years to the FTSE index over same period.

but facts are facts. over three years, they failed to meet the stipulated PERFORMANCE CONDITIONS.

that's not encouraging, is it?

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[haywards26] 07/6/2013 12:13

Qp,

I would say it is more positive that the execs have reasonable criteria attached to their share awards, that these are aligned with ordinary shareholders. Rather than many companies whose directors are rewarded with substantial awards for poor performance.

[quepassa] 07/6/2013 12:05

rubbish.

you don't have the faintest clue of what you are talking about.

the company ebt TRUSTEE has effectively bought these shares back from the officers mentioned as a result of "certain PERFORMANCE CONDITIONS under the JSOP NOT BEING MET ".

that's why Theobald's holding has now GONE DOWN from 337,625 shares to 168,275 shares and Orchard's shares from 402,000 to 233,000 shares.

Their shareholdings have in round terms reduced by some 50% rather than increasing. They have bought nothing as you say.

you clearly don't even know how to read or understand Company Notices.

not very good when company officers get shares taken off their hands because PERFORMANCE CONDITIONS have not been met, is it?

I guess the idea three years ago when the shares were granted in co-ownership with the ebt under the JSOP was that the share price would be higher by now than the grant price of 248p. but it isn't. that doesn't reflect very well in my view. not great when the company's own target PERFORMANCE CONDITIONS are missed.

surprised that nobody else pointed this out to you already.

funny that, innit?

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 06/6/2013 15:34

.X-dividend now payment in August 5.75p

The trading will improve the next quarter as weather conditions got better in Australia.

[christh] 06/6/2013 15:31

Australian April Coal Exports Rise 5.0% On-Month - WSJ Survey
June 02, 2013 22:29 ET (02:29 GMT)
SYDNEY--Coal shipments from Australia, the world's No. 2 exporter of the fuel, rose in April as key mining regions in the country's east recovered from torrential rains that earlier this year disrupted some mining operations and damaged infrastructure.
Exports from major Australian coal terminals increased 5.0% during the month to 27.55 million metric tons, from around 26.24 million tons in March, figures compiled by The Wall Street Journal showed Monday.
Shipments from Queensland state's Abbot Point, Australia's most northerly coal port, were up 30% on the month at 1.80 million tons, while exports from Newcastle, the nation's largest coal export port, located in New South Wales state, rose 7.6% to 11.95 million tons.
Despite the monthly rise, throughput at the country's largest coal ports was down 15% compared with December, prior to the rain damage, when exports peaked at 32.43 million tons.
Australian coal shipments fell sharply during the first few months of 2013 after the remnants of a tropical cyclone battered Queensland, the country's largest coal-producing state. Some rail links were shut for parts of February and March after severe flooding from what was the state's heaviest rainfall in two years and major producers like Rio Tinto PLC (RIO) and Yancoal Australia Ltd. (YAL.AU) declared force majeure on contracts they weren't able to fulfil.
Australia is the world's largest exporter of coking coal, used in steelmaking, and the second-largest shipper of thermal coal, used for electricity generation. The country accounts for more than half of all coking coal traded by sea and one-fifth of seaborne thermal coal.
The Australian government has forecast coal exports will reach nearly 340 million tons, valued at more than 40.59 billion Australian dollars (US$42.32 billion), in the fiscal year through June. Official coal export data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for April are due to be released Thursday.
Exports from Australia were up from a year earlier, the survey data showed, with increased capacity at ports like Newcastle helping drive up volumes. Shipments were 6.9% higher in April compared with the same month a year earlier, when they stood at 25.78 million tons, according to the figures.
Coal exports from the resource-rich country have been rising despite a sharp fall in prices due to slowing demand from important buyers like Japan, South Korea and China.
Australia exports more than 80% of its coal output, and miners have continued to produce high volumes of the raw material--despite a significant squeeze on margins--after signing so-called "take or pay" contracts with rail and port operators. Coal producers agreed to long-term deals to lock in space at export terminals when the coal industry was booming, but it means they would now need to pay for access even if they were to cut production.
Mining companies like Glencore Xstrata PLC (GLEN.LN) and Yancoal have tried to sell excess port capacity, but Yancoal said it had so far had little luck attracting buyers.

[ned] 04/6/2013 10:19

haydock

Thanks for that cheering article

[haydock] 04/6/2013 10:13

June 03, 2013

Anglo Pacific Sets Out Its Investment Stall In An Exceedingly Tricky Market

By Alastair Ford


In one sense, tough markets augur well for royalty companies like Anglo Pacific. "I think it is an opportunity for alternative forms of finance", says the company's chief investment officer Chris Orchard.


Coal stack at the Kestrel mine
Coal stack at the Kestrel mine

But there's a little more to it than that. "Life is never straightforward", he continues. "In some ways the whole market is shut for business."



So although there is a greater willingness on the part of companies with projects to give away royalties, their ability to raise other finance remains limited, meaning that anyone who comes in for a royalty is likely to have a long wait before any meaningful returns come in.



That's why, for now at least, Chris says that Anglo Pacific is more focussed on looking at near-term projects, or smaller more speculative opportunities, like the recent multi-million dollar commitment to Hummingbird's gold project in West Africa.



As it stands, the company's royalty portfolio is worth around £230 million, according to calculations conducted by Martin Potts at Finncap. The bulk of that sum is taken up by the interest in the Australian coal mine Kestrel, owned and operated by Rio Tinto, and set to generate the lion's share of this year's forecast sales of £13.8 million.



Kestrel has long been the backbone of Anglo Pacific, and until very recently it had delivered years of trouble-free income for the company to deploy on growth opportunities elsewhere.



"We're hoping that last year was a low point", says Chris. "Last year was a difficult year. They're bringing on this extensive development. It appears to be a brand new mine. So last year our royalty was substantially down on what we expected."



Things are on the up now though, notwithstanding a weakening coal price and the declaration of force majeure at Kestrel earlier this year because of flooding.



"In the first quarter our royalty had returned to what we would call normal. That was encouraging."



But what about the coal price? "On coking coal we remain pretty keen longer-term. Right now there are some dynamics going on. Just for the moment the supply-demand balance seems to be pretty finely in tune. And it's interesting to note the breakeven costs for people like BHP. There doesn't appear to be much margin there for anybody."



For Martin Potts at Finncap those dynamics mean sharply reduced coking coal inputs into his model for Anglo Pacific, at least for the short term. In a note issued on Monday 3rd June he cut his coking coal price assumptions from US$220 per tonne to US$150 – quite some drop.



Coupled with a reduction in the likely income from an iron ore royalty in Brazil, that decline in the near-term coking coal price cuts Finncap's forecast earnings for Anglo Pacific almost in half, to 13p. But that, reckons Martin Potts, is likely to be it. "We see little further downside to the stock", he adds.



He reckons trading in and out of Anglo Pacific's equity portfolio (which is often used by the company as a feeder system for potential royalty deals), will generate £5 million this year and £10 million next year.



Next year, he also has coking coal prices set at US$150 per tonne, but for the year after that, 2015, reverts to US$220.



Investors who feel disappointed by the likely cut in earnings should take heart, though, that Anglo Pacific's progressive dividend policy is likely to remain in place. The company paid out 10.2p per share last year, and looks set to pay out 10.6p this year and 11p next year.



That equates to a yield of over four per cent, on the basis of the current 240p share price, and looks pretty attractive in a sector where commodity risk is often compounded by operational and political risk among the pure play miners.



Anglo Pacific offers a way to avoid all that. Investors who've followed the company since it first moved into the mining investment space nearly two decades ago know that its directors are a cautious bunch who favour safe jurisdictions, and cheap entry points.



In recent years Anglo Pacific has shown some latitude on its stance on jurisdiction in cases where the rewards on offer represent enough of a balance against the risks involved. Thus, there's a small royalty investment in an Indonesian mineral sands project, and the new Hummingbird royalty.



The Hummingbird royalty is particularly interesting as it signals a renewed interest in gold royalties from a company that has in the recent past found gold royalty valuations to be rather on the steep side.



"We haven't got a lot of gold in our portfolio", says Chris. "Over the past few years we thought the pricing wasn't attractive, up until some months ago. So we have a relatively small exposure to gold."



Aside from the coal and the iron ore, the only other producing royalty the company possesses is held over Orvana's El Valle/Carlos property in Spain. But across the wider portfolio of more than 20 separate royalties, only five relate to gold, and amount to just 11 per cent by value.



Chris likes gold because the value in the sector is at last beginning to show through, and also because the El Valle asset has already paid back the company's investment and it isn't even up at full capacity yet.



"In my opinion the gold price isn't going to stay where it is", says Chris. "We're either going to have a great run or it's going down to a depressing level." Either way, he says, "we're not going to try to become a gold royalty company".



Nonetheless, for Anglo Pacific Hummingbird represents a naked play on the gold price. "In a certain gold price environment the payoff will be very good", says Chris, "and we think we have a good entry cost".



So what other commodities does Chris like? "The two commodities we'd like more of are copper and gold", he says. "But on the basis of being a bit contrarian, we like uranium, nickel, zinc, copper and gold. It's just got to be a good project."

[david77] 04/6/2013 08:23

From http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/the-expert-view-tesco-arm-holdings-and-centrica/a683533?re=23880&ea=99333&utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily#i=6


Falling coking coal price to hit Anglo Pacific


Oil resources business Anglo Pacific Group (APF.L) will be hit by a falling spot price for coking coal, warns Finncap analyst Martin Potts.

Following discussions with BHP Billiton and others about the near-term drivers affecting Australian coking coal the analyst has cut his near-term coking coal price from $220/tonne to $150/tonne.

'As a result, we reduce our 2013 earnings target from 25.4p to 13.0p and cut our target price from 320p to 279p,' the analyst said.

'Nevertheless, we reiterate our Buy recommendation with 19% upside and a very attractive yield of 4.5%.'

Shares in the group closed at 240p on Monday, down 5.6p or 2.3%.

[christh] 03/6/2013 21:38

As announced on May 20, 2010, Mr Chris Orchard and Mr John Theobald each
acquired 169,350 ordinary shares of 2p in the Company ("Shares") on May 19, 2010
at a price of 248p per Share in co-ownership with the EBT.The Trustee exercised its option to acquire the beneficial interest in the Shares following certain performance conditions under the JSOP not being met. In accordance with the terms of the JSOP, the price paid by the Trustee to each of Mr Theobald and Mr Orchard for exercising the options was GBP 10.




Recent News
Date .........Time.... Source.......... Headline

30/05/2013 16:11 MWUS Joint Share Ownership Plan
30/05/2013 16:11 MKTW Joint Share Ownership Plan
30/05/2013 16:11 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group Joint Share Ownership Plan
30/05/2013 14:30 MKTW Final Dividend
30/05/2013 14:30 MWUS Final Dividend
30/05/2013 07:00 UKREG Anglo Pacific Group Final Dividend
22/05/2013 16:14 MWUS Results of Annual General Meeting

[christh] 03/6/2013 21:16

The Gold futures contract is trading 1.5 percent higher at USD 1413.1 per ounce as the dollar weakened against its major counterparts after data indicated that manufacturing activity in the US unexpectedly contracted in May, raising the safe haven appeal of the bullion...

[topvest] 03/6/2013 10:47

I've bought some shares in Anglo Pacific a few weeks back. What is interesting to me is that the dividend and most of the value creation to date has arisen from the Kestrel royalty which I believe was acquired for virtually nothing. This asset is a top-class coal mine and has a 20 year life following the mine extension project. So the way I see it, this asset pretty much secures the dividend for the next two decades and everything else is a more speculative upside potential. Not sure everyone else sees it that way.

[richard98765] 31/5/2013 18:02

I can only put this share price uplift down to a slight jump in gold/silver prices. Not sure if the jump is in proportion or whether the divi is starting to be factored in aswell

[gavapentin] 31/5/2013 17:59

Market seem ok with things as they stand.

ALL IMO

GP

[quepassa] 30/5/2013 10:07

Not surprising that yet again, there is no scrip alternative.

Would have effect on increasing shares in issue and subsequent dilution impact on share price

Management acknowledges that this decision has been resolved by the Board " in light of the current share price" which in my view remains distinctly weak.

Having announced two recent impairments/losses totalling £7.6million on their Strategic Mining Interests portfolio, certain market participants may or may not be asking themselves about the robustness or otherwise of the valuations of the remaining assets in the SMI portfolio.

Having unexpectedly withdrawn quarterly reporting, this does not bolster confidence in my view.

At a time when coal prices are weak and the junior mining sector is decidely under the cosh, more rather than less information would be comforting in my opinion.

APF have recently appointed a non-Exec Director to the Board who is a highly experienced Chartered Accountant. An interesting choice of pedigree for a new Board Member.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 30/5/2013 07:04

Final Dividend
FOR: ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP PLC

LSE SYMBOL: APF
TSX SYMBOL: APY

May 30, 2013

Final Dividend

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM--(Marketwired - May 30, 2013) - Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the "Company") (LSE:APF)(TSX:APY)
announces today that, in light of the current share price, the Board has resolved not to offer shareholders a scrip
dividend alternative in respect of the final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2012.

The final dividend of 5.75p per ordinary share for the year ended December 31, 2012 will be paid in cash on August 7,
2013 to shareholders on the share register at the close of business on June 7, 2013. The shares will be quoted ex
dividend on the London Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange on June 5, 2013.

Notes to Editors:

About Anglo Pacific Group PLC

Anglo Pacific Group PLC is a global natural resources royalties company. The Company's strategy is to expand its
mineral royalty interests in long-life mining assets. The Company achieves this through both direct acquisition and
investment in projects at the development and production stage. It is a continuing policy of the Company to pay a
substantial proportion of these royalties to shareholders as dividends.