Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[nielsc] 18/1/2013 10:12

QuePassa,

o/t
The Rothchilds are a dynasty. Warren Buffett is an individual. Not sure they are
really comparable.

Anyway we seem to have strayed from whatever point you were making about APF, which I believe is APF has been a poor investment over 4.5 years. An arbitrary date you have picked. I agree if you had bought all your APF shares at the peak in mid 2008 then it would be a pretty poor return. I doubt many here did that though. So although your point may be correct it really doesn't have any bearing on the investments I made in APF. I am happy to have made a 170% capital gain over the last 4 years. Hopefully the next 4 years will prove as fruitful.

Cheers,
Niels

[christh] 18/1/2013 10:02

FTSE 100: Miners boosted by Chinese data
Mining peers Rio Tinto, ENRC and EVRAZ were slightly higher this morning as the demand outlook brightened following the Chinese GDP figures. The latter was making gains even though it said that steel production fell 6% from the third quarter to the fourth, as a result of scheduled maintenance at its ZSMK steel mill in the Siberia region.

The stock was being given a lift this morning by comments from Credit Suisse this morning about the steel sector. The broker said: "The cycle is now recovering. Confidence appears to be returning as the recovery in the financial equities suggested to us could be the case. Anecdotes we hear suggest that the demand outlook (non-res in the US, general demand in EU) could be better than the market believes."

Rio was rebounding from suffering losses yesterday after announcing that its Chief Executive Officer had resigned following a non-cash impairment charge of approximately $14bn in its 2012 full-year results. Analyst James Gurry from Credit Suisse said this morning: "After the market digests this news we think the focus should remain on iron ore prices, project delivery and the larger macro picture, all which remains unchanged following yesterday's announcement especially given current head of iron ore (80% of earnings / 65% NPV) takes over as CEO, share price pressure should be seen as buying opportunity."

[haydock] 18/1/2013 09:42

If you really believe that Rothschild are a still major financial force, you don't have a clue.

Nope! Clueless again.
Still its tough being a Rothchild these days even if you have no financial clout.
I must admit they have not boought a Suez canal lately.

Au Revoir

RIT Capital Partners plc (RCP) Ordinary GBP1
Sell: 1,139.00pBuy: 1,142.00p1.00p (0.09%) FTSE 250: 0.35%

Market cap: £1.77 bn
Performance

RIT has more than doubled its NAV and almost tripled its share price over the last ten years.

Shares in issue: 155.4m £1 Ordinary Shares in Issue, as at Last Close.

Major Shareholders Information



Shareholder Name

Amount

% Holding

Lord Rothschild*

16,311,771

10.50

Lady Rothschild*

12,021,851

7.74

Lord Rothschild*

4,387,070 (N)

2.82

I believe APF have the makings of the same type of ccompany, time will tell.

Au Revoir

Cheers Hay.

[quepassa] 18/1/2013 09:15

Boring, pedestrian and uninteresting reply.

If you really believe that Rothschild are a still major financial force, you don't have a clue.

Enough for now.

QP

[haydock] 18/1/2013 08:57

Look what became of the house of Rothschild.

Perhaps you have heard something I have'nt?

One little financial spat by a junior Rothschild, does not signal the fall of a 200+ year dynasty.
They seemed to have plenty brass in France & Britain last time i looked.

Time for you to DYOR.

APF, sure it can be bought & sold & should be, not missing the dividends.

However it has the makings of a long term core holding, which is how i always see it.

I have for many years viewed it as an investment trust.Not as some new on the block developer or explorer.
However the developer element is there, & always has been, as a plus: the CDN coal, for a mere £2m even revalued.

Keep on digging Q.P.

[quepassa] 17/1/2013 18:43

Buffett is the greatest.

But it is a public myth that he never sells. That's just not true. He is the most opportunistic buyer of them all. His investment in Goldman's at the height of the crisis is just a great example. He is as keen as mustard to jump in and to get out quickly on given opportunities.

He will also sell down core holdings and rebuy later. He is a really DYNAMIC modern-day ACTIVE portfolio manager.

The following is a link to Forbes ( wait for the advert on screen to disappear after a few secs ) and this shows how the man is constantly liquidating/trimming/adding to/reviewing/rebalancing/spring-cleaning his portfolios:-




He has some famous core holdings like Coca-Cola from the 70's but otherwise he is quite ruthless. The article makes good reading.

As far as the Rothschilds are concerned, that is a highly fragmented business nowadays and I most certainly wouldn't take it on face value that a given Rothschild investment vehicle/fund/opportunity is automatically going to be or to do better than others.

They are a curiosity nowadays. Nothing more. From being the greatest dynastic banking family a century or more ago, they are - no disrespect meant- a mere footnote in today's financial arena in my view.

Look what became of the great house of JP Morgan. Look what became of the house of Rothschild.

Without looking at the specifics of RIT/RPC, I cannot comment but may take the opportunity to do so as you have piqued my curiosity.

Certainly, the investment in Bumi leads one to believe that they did not achieve 100% info discovery on Bumi prior to concluding the transaction ( which is sub-optimal from an investment point-of-view), and that this particular investment is already fast becoming a head-ache.

I would not take it for granted that just because an investment vehicle has the Rothschild stamp on it, that it is (automatically) any better than any other.

I think that Buffet and the Rothschilds are not comparable. They are totally different. They live on different planets. They are not the same.

Would I put my personal money with any one of the Rothschild vehicles? No
Would I put my personal money with Berkshire Hathaway. Yes

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 17/1/2013 18:33

QuePassa,

You are using arbitrary dates for performance. My top up at the start of 2009 has done very well over 4 years. You have no idea when other people have bought either.

I'm not sure what your point is. If you say performance has been bad over the last "4.5 years" then what do you suggest? It is in the past after all. You did say feast, famine, perhaps feast is on the cards over the next few years!

Interesting debate. I take it your interest in APF is an intellectual exercise or is it on your watch list?

Cheers,
Niels

[haydock] 17/1/2013 15:27

RCP is the ticker for RIT.
Thats the Rochchild investment trust, in which they have a 22% holding.

Last 3 years rubbish.

Yet they have linked up with the Rockafellas & the French Rothchilds to make new investments, off mkt.
I have held that fore 8 years & won't be selling out either.

Management & history

Another share that would not be good enough for you QP.

However would you really bet against folk like that long term ?

APF are in my opinion along the same lines, the book value of the CDN coal is about £2m.
I doubt if it will be that hard to liquidate, for book value, with the Chinese around.
I too have topped up lots of times along the way.

Perhaps some of us still live in a different world: one populated by Rothchilds & Buffetts.

I also do back more rapid winners at times to keep from getting too board.
My 6years + rapid investment QFI has at last hit the pay dirt trail today !!

All too fast & exciting this wheeler dealing these days.

Many thanks for your continued interest.

Cheers Hay.

[piedro] 17/1/2013 14:54

I think you will find many mining stocks are in
a similar position ... BLT, AAL, RIO ...



... you certainly don't seem to understand long
term investing (10-20 yrs)

Try buying a property - you'll get better returns
than with the Market (20-30yrs).

[quepassa] 17/1/2013 14:14

Off the book growth equals growing discount to NAV.

This normally means that investors have concerns about the valuations of the underlying assets either because of the valuation methodology per se or because those assets have limited/negligible liquidity and are terribly difficult to liquidate at anything near the given book value.

You would expect the share price to increase in line with growing NAV but when the inverse is true, it is bad news.

8years. Three and a half years of FEAST, followed by four and a half years of FAMINE. You are kidding yourselves still to be looking at ancient history to justify to yourselves recent bad share price performance. You cannot ignore that no growth in share price over four years plus is terrible.

Well I hope the old hands are right for their own sake but the zero performance for the last four and a half years does not tell a lie.

Always a good bit of intelligent banter on this bulletin board.

Perhaps management needs to be taken to task as to why they have returned such startling underperformance for loyal shareholders like yourselves vis-a-vis the FTSE 100 over the long time since 2008.

Any fund manager with a track record like that would likely be sent back to school.

Good luck to all.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[gardenarc] 17/1/2013 12:20

Haydock is spot on with what he is saying..

[piedro] 17/1/2013 12:13

QP,

Nothing like a good argument.
And the response has been very civil.

APF atm is certainly cannot be regarded
as a growth stock - what you say is
mostly true but wrapped up in old
time cliches as though trying to offend.

Regarding book value we have
2007 - 156m
2008 - 146m
2009 - 254m
2010 - 303m
2011 - 247m - and that's tangible.

We know that the EPS will remain flat
for a couple or more years depending
on the Aussie coal situation.
We also know that there will be no growth
until many more royalties come on stream.

Certainly the Market does not like that
situation and hence the share price

But, we also know that the company is
accumulating assets - they are v.savy in
that respect ..... cheap assets with
hidded JORCs.

You call it 'jam tomorrow' which is not quite
correct as these are tangible assets

Hence, most long time holders are quite content
to watch them growing ... off the book !! ...
and not too bothered by what the Market thinks.

I hope that explains the situation.

Regards,
P.

[nielsc] 17/1/2013 11:27

QuePassa,

Why do you mention 4.5 years. Haydock has been invested for 8 years. I have been invested for a similar time with top ups along the way. A pretty decent one at the start of 2009. Return on that top up is around 170%. So I am running my winner as you stated. My average is 140p, not the price at the peaks!

Dividends thrown in I am pretty happy.

I believe in the future of APF. Little downside risk and plenty of upside in the coming years.

You can go on regarding the performance of APF, but I think your efforts will be wasted.

Remember as you said don't become too attached to a share. I think you are exhibiting just that. You were a holder previously, but not any more. Maybe best to move on. All the best in your current investments.


Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 17/1/2013 10:15

But your concept of jam tomorrow is a funny one.

Over the last four and a half years, this share has given a ZERO capital appreciation. - Much worse than the FTSE 100 index.

With inflation, anyone holding APF over this time frame has lost a significant amount due to inflation.

If investment means happy to lose money over 4.5 years, then perhaps there are different interpretations of what investment means.

Denial is not a river is Africa.

In this case, the jam tomorrow style to investment, looks more like the quick-sand style to investment to me. Getting sucked in and being unable to get yourself out.

The old guff about Warren Buffet being a never-sell holder is nonsense. He sells ALL THE TIME. He runs his profits AND CUTS HIS LOSSES.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[haydock] 17/1/2013 09:42

I have my personal suspicions that this total defensiveness about APF is not impartial.

Good Luck to All.

Thanks for the best wishes.

Too right not impartial: this is the best management team i have ever had the good look to encounter.Full stop.

Investing is about long term holding, this is a share that you can put in your portfolio for decades. It will allow you to sleep at night & make you rich.


I have been here 8 years & will be staying.

Head in the sand?

Maybe, but i will be happy to take the risk, & back my judgement.
I make my own decisions, with my own brass, at my own level of risk.

I will stay until the story changes.


This has been the worst market since the 1970's & this share has not bombed.
The mining sector has been at the bottom of the heap.

Just take a look at the costs of running this company & the number of shares the directors hold, & draw your own conclusions.

Then look at the CDN coal if you can find it: jam tomorrow, dividends soon.
Not many like that on the mkt.

Cheers Hay.

[nielsc] 17/1/2013 08:51

QuePassa:

I wouldn't say APF is a "woofer", neither is it an outstanding performer. It wasn't so long ago that you claimed to be a long term holder. I take it you have had a change of mind regarding APF's longer term prospects?

To be honest a royalty company is a hard beast to value and performance is likely to be lumpy. I am holding as I see gold and uranium doing well in the coming years and APF is well placed to take advantage of that.

I would say this is one of my lower risk shares. Lower risk generally mean lower reward, but I am happy with that.

FABIUS1:
Yup agree with that. Just have to wait for this market sector to turn.

"The stock market is a highly efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient." –Warren Buffet

Cheers,
Niels

[fabius1] 17/1/2013 01:10

Nothing wrong with the company in my view. In fact, one my best stocks but there ain't much we can do about the market. This chart doesn't lie and I think BLT is a good enough benchmark comparitor.

[quepassa] 17/1/2013 00:40

Thoughts like head in the sand, and waking up and smelling the coffee come to mind.

I chose not to use 2009 as a starting point because of the financial crisis when APF fell from 250 to 100 whereas the index had gone from 6000 to 3500.

However six months before your starting point in mid 2008, APF was still 250, round about the same level it is today. That is zero performance over four and a half years.

Good luck to ALL.

I have time for APF because I study the market. That includes understanding the woofers as well as the winners. One helps you to understand the other.

Some investors get emotionally attached to shares - denying to themselves the real performance of their investments. Recent studies on emotional investing are fascinating and are relevant perhaps to certain investors who are wedded to situations where they fail to admitto themselves the reality of the share. - That's interesting stuff.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 16/1/2013 23:41

QuePassa,

You are missing the point of being a _long_ term holder. Take another view of APF's performance since the start of 2009 and APF has returned a yearly gain of 28% for the last 4 years. See I can pick a good starting point for my argument too ;-)

With my average of around 140p this is probably a view closer to the returns I have made. Dare I mention the handy dividend too?

Anyway I am surprised you have time for such a poor performer that APF is.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 16/1/2013 21:55

But perhaps not as trite as certain contributors continually repeating what a great investment this share is.

That is where trite turns to tripe.

Good Luck to All

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[gavapentin] 16/1/2013 21:07

"I have my personal suspicions that this total defensiveness about APF is not impartial"

What a load of trite!

I acknowledged performance had not been great.

Chippy

[quepassa] 16/1/2013 18:52

If this is such a great share as so many old hands on this bb never miss the opportunity to point out, why has the performance of APF been so dire over a three year period, not even to have kept pace with the FTSE 100 index.

So someone/something is out of kilter here in continually singing the praises of APF as a good investment.

They keep on and on telling you it's a great share but why?. -FTSE up 20% in three years. APF 0%. So many shares give a great yield now. A tracker fund on the FTSE would of course spin off a dividend to investors, not just the capital growth.

Hearing several posters on this bulletin board in concert saying what a great share APF is perhaps hard to understand when the performance of APF has been very poor.

The moment I say something negative about APF's undeniably poor performance in share price terms over the last three years or so, three or four posters jump up immediately and run to the defense on the company.

I have my personal suspicions that this total defensiveness about APF is not impartial.

Good Luck to All.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[haydock] 16/1/2013 17:48

Since we have a TSX listing, listen to the start of this to get a good idea, why we are not performing a little better.
Jan 14th edition.

[gavapentin] 16/1/2013 17:48

QP
All that you say is true although you ignore the fact of inflation on the 20% rise, not to mention the lack of yield.
There would not be TOO much difference between a tracker and APF all things being equal.

That said - granted, not great. Wouldn't it be great if all investments went up?

Can I ask why you are so keen to point out the negative with regard to APF?
You seem a little bitter/angry?

[quepassa] 16/1/2013 17:28

On the basis that the share-price has gone nowhere over a three-year time-frame, anyone, including long-term holders, have effectively lost 10-15% of their capital due to the corrosive effects of high inflation.

That's not good.

Sice early 2010, the boring FTSE 100 index has gone from 5000 to 6000.

Up by 20%.

Even the most tame tracker fund would have given a better return than APF over this same time- frame.

Many shares have gone up by a multiple of that. Numerous mining/natural resource stocks have doubled/tripled in value.

This share has been a very poor investment over the last three years.

Good Luck to ALL.

But long-term holders may be kidding themselves about the seemingly attractive yield whilst merrily chosing to ignore the corrosive effects of inflation and hiding themselves from the reality that this share has not even kept up with the most basic index of the FTSE 100.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP