Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[gavapentin] 15/4/2013 18:35

QP - have you made some money shorting this stock?

If so - well done.

Or do you want us all to sing in unison "We all bow down to QP"

You are quite strange.

[quepassa] 15/4/2013 18:26

Today.

FTSE 100 - Fallers
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,080.00p -15.16%
Polymetal International (POLY) 746.00p -13.15%
Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 4,545.00p -8.33%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 937.00p -7.50%
Xstrata (XTA) 966.30p -7.35%
Glencore International (GLEN) 321.10p -6.71%
Evraz (EVR) 171.90p -6.27%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 1,097.00p -5.43%
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. (ENRC) 238.10p -4.53%
Wood Group (John) (WG.) 817.00p -4.28%


FTSE 250 - Fallers
Petropavlovsk (POG) 141.80p -24.01%
Bumi (BUMI) 249.50p -15.14%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 37.83p -12.02%
New World Resources A Shares (NWR) 192.00p -10.20%
Kazakhmys (KAZ) 340.80p -9.02%
African Barrick Gold (ABG) 173.40p -8.64%
Hochschild Mining (HOC) 240.90p -8.37%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 167.00p -8.14%
Ladbrokes (LAD) 190.30p -8.02%
Lonmin (LMI) 256.60p -7.83%


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 15/4/2013 15:20

Graph looking like a falling knife to me. And we know what can happen if you try to catch one.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 15/4/2013 11:57

what a price to buy now.
It is a steal at 214p the yield is 6%.

I have put away some in my ISA last friday at 230p.

[christh] 15/4/2013 10:26

AGM day will be announced today.

[quepassa] 15/4/2013 08:41

Gold down another 2.5% this morning at c. $1445

ALL IMO . DYOR.

QP

[stevie blunder] 14/4/2013 10:27

The fall in gold price of Friday has, in some quarters, been attributed to Mario Draghi commenting on Cyprus eg here:



Lanci said, Draghi's message was fairly clear "sell your gold or you are not going to get the money."

This could of course have read across to other troubled euro members and maybe there is about to be a flood of central banks selling their gold to stay in the euro. Maybe. Or maybe not.....

something to watch, but impossible to predict IMO.

[vosene] 14/4/2013 09:25

There's a lot of stored value in unrealised royalties for APF. I'm not bothered by fluctuations in particular asset classes as this is a long term hold, probably one of the safest ways to play the mining sector. What's more of a concern is that APF seems to be losing its surefootedness with its royalty choices. There was a time when they hardly put a foot wrong, and kept their investments in stable mining jurisdictions. Now they are stumping up for payments on a gold project in Liberia and they rapidly got burned taking a royalty interest off Red Rock Resources - not the sort of mistakes they would have made in the past.

[quepassa] 14/4/2013 09:12

Everyone saw the dramatic fall on Friday of Gold by 4% to less than $1500.

No good explanation as to why that happened. Even the gurus don't seem to have figured that one out.

But this is potentially problematic in general for gold producers, prospecting and mining companies.

The following article is interesting on these topics:-



As at 31/12/12, Anglo-Pac had 5% of their £266m Royalty Interests in Gold but more noticeably 30% of their £56m of Strategic Mining Interests in Gold.

This fall in gold price should in my view have a relatively minor impact on APF's overall Royalty streams given the smallish 5% above. But I ask myself if this wouldn't potentially have a more perceptible impact on real-life valuations of their strategic gold mining interests.

Given the major hammering which the junior mining sector has recently taken, one asks oneself whether APF's valuation of £56million of Mining and Exploration Interests may or may not come under pressure during the course of 2013 in the less favourable market which is being experienced.

Note 18 in The Company's 31/12/2012 Annual Report refers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[piedro] 12/4/2013 16:02

QP,

A$100,000 - A$200,000

FYI

As you asked

[quepassa] 12/4/2013 12:17

Sorry to post more negative stuff about the coal sector in general but I had only read to page 20 of today's FT when I wrote my last post.

The last post related to COKING COAL.

This new post and FT article refer to THERMAL coal.

Now on page 30, the FT headline, relating this time to THERMAL COAL, couldn't be much worse.

Article is headlined:-

" Annual coal prices to drop sharply"

The full article makes bleak reading but is worth reading for followers of this sector.

The article references:-

- Thermal coal miners will cut benchmark annual contracts by more than 17%.
-The international coal market is under pressure as US miners dump tonnage that they cannot sell domestically after utilities switched to cheaper natural gas. At the same time the Asia-pacific thermal coal region is well supplied due to strong production growth in Indonesia.
-fears that some small and medium sized Australian producers will be forced out of business
-Glencore saying that"current spot coal prices mean that many of the world's producers are unable to make a reasonable return"
-Liberum saying " approx 25% of Australian miners are losing money", adding that virtually all new coal projects generate an insufficient rate of return to "justify execution"


One can ask onself what type of impact this may or may not have on the c. 20% of production being Thermal coal which comes from Kestrel and Crinum mines in Australia.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 12/4/2013 11:01

Sector backdrop. Not good.

Today's FT. Page 21 Markets Section:-

"Evraz shuns dividend as steel prices "deteriorate".

Shares in the FTSE100 steelmaker Evraz fell by more than a tenth as the metals company plunged into the red due to falling steel prices."



Evraz not paying a final dividend is not a positive sign in my view for the industry or the prospects of coal demand and prices.

Always the same. Mining companies seek and discover more reserves of commodities in the times of demand.

Start digging more big holes in the ground to exploit those newly found reserves. Takes a few years for those new mines to come on stream by which time fundamental demand and economic conditions have as now deteriorated but the supply from the new mines has increased. Thus depressing commodity prices.

I continue to see a very bumpy ride ahead for participants in the coal sector.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[piedro] 11/4/2013 14:43

Stevie,

Thank you.
I've copied/pasted to the other bb

Regards,
Piedro

[vosene] 11/4/2013 10:25

They've stumped up money for Hummingbird today

[stevie blunder] 11/4/2013 10:23

Force Majure on coal deliveries from Kestrel was lifted on 12th March according to this:



It had been in force from end Jan, so 6 weeks sales lost in Q1. Financials won't look good when results are announced on 14th May. but it is all hopefully in the price now.
(edited to correct date 14th May)
( I had sold out at 268p earlier, but bought back at 243 recently, not the best timing, but I did get 10% more shares. I think this will be a dull year though, even by APF standards)

[christh] 07/4/2013 20:47

The price slump in raw materials was "overdone," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a March 7 report, raising its outlook for commodities to "overweight" from "neutral." The Washington-based International Monetary Fund is predicting global growth of 3.5 percent in 2013, up from 3.2 percent in 2012.
"The biggest surprise could be growth begins to accelerate, and oil and metals prices move to the upside," Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman in New York, said in an interview. "History says that you never want to be short commodities during an economic expansion. The risk is more to the upside than to the downside, should the economy accelerate."

[richard98765] 05/4/2013 08:13

Beginning to look like a reasonable entry point at 220p this AM hitting a 3yr low. With a 5.75p div on the cards could be one to drop in the ISA for 3 yrs or so

[nielsc] 04/4/2013 20:25

Meanwhile in the real world it looks like gold is in short supply.



Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 04/4/2013 14:32

To be fair QuePassa has been bearish on APF for the last year and a bit having been previously bullish on APF in 2011. He previously stated he was looking for an entry point of 200p. I not sure if that is now the case though.

The commodity sector has been pretty battered over the last couple of years. Gold taking a bit of a hit currently.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 04/4/2013 14:09

In response to the last post, please draw your own conclusions from the following post by christh six weeks ago on 20/2 number 6117. Share price today 229p:-



"A large buy 25,000 at 291p which is around £75,000.

News to come or a tip or a director Buy?

Well, the technical inicators point to 340p as the yearly patterns show."



No news. No Director Buy. Share price way down in six weeks and distinctly heading in opposite direction to the suggested 340p.



???


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 04/4/2013 12:59

Beware of QP posts.
He does not hold any shares in APF neither knows how APF operates.


The coal stock that APF and has not develop yet is not valued in its assets.

Lucky those who can buy now in their ISAs.

[vosene] 04/4/2013 09:46

The commodity supercycle isn't going to end whilst the human supercycle continues. There were 4 billion people around when I was born, 7 billion now, and 10 billion by the time I'm likely to pop my clogs. They all need energy, goods, and a place to live, in a world with ever decreasing opportunities for top class resource finds. Only going one way in our lifetimes.

[jimbo55] 04/4/2013 09:43

Would that be the same UBS that had to be bailed out by the Swiss Government in 2008 due to their overexposure to subprime mortgages?

[quepassa] 04/4/2013 08:13

UBS SAYS COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE "PROBABLY" OVER AND PRICES ARE UNLIKELY TO MATCH THEIR PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST DECADE.

This is hot off the press from Businessweek/Bloomberg.

"We were expecting a restocking phase.......This did not happen"




Interesting article incorporating comment from highly regarded UBS.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[4spiel] 03/4/2013 15:12

I sold at 157p a long time ago and still think that is all its worth and good value around there. I do appreciate when interest rates are low peopleare gullible -or desperate?!