Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 21/1/2013 13:48

So NO DIRECTOR BUYING then.

Maybe the Directors themselves may not hold faith that "this is a buying opportunity not to be missed " as you suggested.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 21/1/2013 13:43

Director Shareholdings

Notifier.............Holding............. Value
Paul Cooke...........8,949,904...........£23,717,246
Brian Wides...........2,926,153...........£7,754,306
P M Boycott...........2,706,947...........£7,173,410
Chris Orchard...........357,245...........£946,699
John Theobald...........287,550...........£762,008
Anthony H Yadgaroff.....172,180...........£456,277
John Whellock............13,084............£34,673
Michael Atkinson..........7,422...........£19,668

[christh] 21/1/2013 13:29

....the major shareholders...

Major Shareholders

Notifier..........................Holding............... Value
Liontrust Investment Partners LLP 9,218,108........... £24,427,986
Ransomes Dock Ltd.................8,841,315........... £23,429,485
AXA S.A...........................5,494,332............£14,559,980
Rathbones Brothers plc............5,287,850............£14,012,802
Legal and General Group Plc.......4,359,058............£11,551,504

[christh] 21/1/2013 13:28

DIRECTORS DEALINGS
Directors' share dealings in the last 12 months

Director Trans Date Amount Price Value Holding No. Holding % Additional Info
Yadgaroff, Anthony H 14/08/2012 Purchase 3,280 246.00 8,069 175,460 0.16
Orchard, A 'Chris 28/03/2012 Purchase 44,804 332.00 148,749 402,049 0.367 JSOP
Theobald, John 28/03/2012 Purchase 50,075 332.00 166,249 337,625 0.308 JSOP
Boycott, Peter Michael 01/03/2012 Sale 15,000 332.00 49,800 2,691,947 2.456
Yadgaroff, Anthony H 22/02/2012 Purchase 2,248 317.30 7,133 172,180 0.157


N = Non-Beneficial holding

[quepassa] 21/1/2013 12:27

If the directors were to sell, they know that would likely hammer the share price in my opinion - so they have in my view a somewhat strong interest to sit tight and not rock the boat.

I would have thought that a more appropriate question is, HAVE THEY BEEN BUYING ?

Especially at these reduced levels which certain posters believe represent great value.

Sorry to turn the question around on you but if you write and believe that

"this is a buying opportunity not to be missed",

one does wonder why the management aren't availing themselves of this opportunity then.

Can you please respond if you have seen the Management Buying?


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 21/1/2013 12:17

Stevie,Thanks for that. Will have a look later. Will be interesting to see how higher royalties help offset lower production. Still don't know how coking coal price fared in q4. Need to sit down and have a proper look.Cheers,Niels

[christh] 21/1/2013 12:16

REMINDER
---------------------------------
Anglo Pacific Group APF Acquisition of Brazilian Iron ore Royalty
Anglo Pacific Group (APF) - Acquisition of Brazilian Iron ore Royalty

RNS Number : 1891T
Anglo Pacific Group PLC
23 September 2010
Anglo Pacific is pleased to have agreed to purchase such a high quality iron
ore production royalty which complements its existing Kestrel metallurgical
coal royalty and the recently acquired Pilbara iron ore royalty as announced
in May 2010

-------------------------------------------------------
Anglo Pacific Group (APF) - Acquisition of Australian Iron Ore Royalty

RNS Number : 1750M
Anglo Pacific Group PLC
19 May 2010

News Release 19^th May 2010
Anglo Pacific Group plc
Acquisition of Australian Iron Ore royalty

Anglo Pacific Group plc ("Anglo Pacific") announces that, effective 19^th May
2010, it has agreed to purchase the DFD Rhodes Group iron ore royalty,
covering three exploration licences in the central Pilbara region of Western
Australia, for a sum of A$23 million in cash. The vendors comprise DFD Rhodes
Pty Ltd, JCO Investments Pty Ltd, Eamon Ian Cornelius and Brenton Anthony
Parry (DFD Rhodes Group).

The tenements, covering 263 square kilometres, are owned by a wholly owned
subsidiary of BHP Billiton ('BHPB') and are subject to a 1.5% royalty on total
gross revenue. The royalty tenements host a number of known iron occurrences,
the most significant being the Railway deposit. The tenements are supported by
extensive rail infrastructure including the rail lines from Rio Tinto's West
Angelas and Yandicoogina mines and BHPB's rail line serving its current
operations at Mining Area C, which lies immediately to the east of the Railway
deposit.



United Minerals Corporation NL ('UMC') explored the tenements during the
period 2007 to 2010 with most work concentrating on the Railway deposit. As at
21^st September 2009 UMC reported the following JORC compliant mineral
resources on the deposit:



· Indicated Resource - 100.7 mt @ 60.3% Fe

· Inferred Resource - 57.4mt @ 54% Fe



Subsequently, BHPB acquired UMC in February 2010 for approximately A$204
million.

Anglo Pacific is pleased to have acquired such a high quality royalty and
anticipates that these iron ore deposits will be mined by BHPB in years to
come as part of its planned expansion of iron ore output in the Pilbara.



IRON ORE is in high demand as RIO TINTO showed in their statement.
So no more to say....other than this is a Buying opportunity!

[christh] 21/1/2013 11:56

Guessing the accounts might be a surprise for a few in this board.
More royalties have started since the last report so it will make for any temporarily declining royalties.

I am looking forward to the divi in february and the next one later this year.

Still maintain the target price to be over 300p.

QP have you seen any directors selling lately?

Why are you panicking then?

this is a buying opportunity, not to be missed.

[gavapentin] 21/1/2013 09:13

Agreed - but it is all in the phrasing.

[stevie blunder] 21/1/2013 09:08

I think we are too close to the results for the company to answer any questions.
Results last year on 22nd Feb.

[gavapentin] 21/1/2013 08:44

Perhaps a question to be put to the CFO?

[stevie blunder] 21/1/2013 08:35

Hi Niels,
I was referring to the Q4 update from Rio Tinto showing lower coal production at Kestrel in Q4.

Piedro covers it very well on the other thread here:



That leads me to think yearly royalties will disappoint

[nielsc] 20/1/2013 23:47

Stevie,

I haven't heard anything about the Q4 results. Do you mean the q3 results?

In Q4 the royalty rate has been increased inline with the Queensland coal royalty rates and was to take effect from 1st oct. Also I see thermal coal rates (20% of output) have done pretty well in Q4. Hard coking coal hopefully has risen in step with iron ore prices over Q4. Has anyone got more information on this?

Based on this I would expect royalties to be up on Q3 for kestrel.
Will see how it has panned out shortly.
Total royalties for the year won't be anywhere near the £35m last year. Perhaps £20m?

Cheers,
Niels

[stevie blunder] 20/1/2013 07:57

Strategically, APF has been a good investment for me over the years, I first bought at 101p.

However there is no doubt that recent performance has been poor.

I lightened up a few months ago, as I was getting concerned by the lack of diversification of the portfolio stream away from Kestrel. I had expected other royalties to be kicking in. The time line of expected future royalty start-ups ha been pushed out, and there have been outright disappointments, such as the Mt Ida royalty.

The latest news of Q4 at Kestrel has prompted me to sell out at 269. I will reevaluate things when the next results come out, but would not be surprised to be able to buy back in a good bit lower when royalties for 2012 are released.

( Nor, I should say, would I be surprised to have got things completely wrong and the market ignores one more bad quarter and sends the share price up. But that is not the most likely outcome, IMHO)

Steve

[nielsc] 19/1/2013 23:19

QuePassa,

I fail to be enlightened by your rather repetitive argument.

I have said nothing on Illis behalf. I merely commented on his/her share performance and pointed out that is is very easy to be an expert on share price movements in retrospect.

You mentioned being a buyer at £2 previously. I note that you said you wouldn't be a buyer at that price. I assume by your outburst your stance has perhaps changed?

I had to have a chuckle at the proposition that I was ramping this share. In my previous posts I have stated my personal investment performance in APF and that I am very happy with their progressive dividend policy. I would hardly call that ramping, next you will be calling this a pump and dump operation ;-)

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 19/1/2013 23:04

On that point, I think it has enlightened many of the blinkered investors on this bulletin board that the performance of this share has been dire over an extended period of five years when they blithely believed it was remarkably good judging by the majority of comments hitherto.

In the case of illis are you his self-appointed mouthpiece or can he talk for himself?

Do not put words into my mouth that I would be a buyer at £2 or lower, you are in no position to speak on my behalf either.

Surely by now you should do the decent thing and stop ramping this share.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 19/1/2013 21:05

QuePassa,

Very easy to point out when Illis should have sold APF and bought into a Ftse tracker in retrospect. I am sure plenty of investors would be very happy with 24% per annum.

If APF retraces to £2 or lower (not sure what your basis for this is) I will be a buyer as no doubt you will be.

It is sometimes less risky to hold than sell one share and buy another. Two risks rather than one. Anyway I feel we have done this to death and not really increased our understanding of APF.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 19/1/2013 17:03

This is the way investors fool themselves that they are doing well.

Illiswilgig has not achieved straight-line 24% PER ANNUM.

He has achieved ( roughly) 48% PER ANNUM for five years, followed by ZERO % PER ANNUM for five years.

His spectacular annual gains/performance of the first five years have effectively been HALVED by the zero underperformance in the last five years.

The last five years of underperformance have reduced his excellent initial five year return by 50% at a time when the FTSE 100 INDEX has gone up by a significant amount.

Is that something to be smug about that one has turned a five year average 48%pa return into a ten year average 24% pa return?

Irrespective of the great return in the first five years, I maintain my view that the last FIVE YEARS ( which is a long time) of ZERO share price performance is dire and this highlights the market's concerns with APF.

For the market to be valuing this Company at roughly the same price as five years ago is telling you something. - With high recent inflation and a rising market, you would expect some modest growth in share price but there hasn't been any.

In my view, this share has every chance of retracing significantly further down to £2 or lower.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 18/1/2013 17:14

illiswilgig,

2003 is a good old time to have been holding. I am a relative newcomer having first bought in in 2006.

Cheers,
Niels

[illiswilgig] 18/1/2013 16:26

This discussion of APF recent performance has prompted me to take a quick look at my holding. I notice that I first bought at 38.5p in June 2003. Over the subsequent 9.5 years the capital appreciation has been 24% per annum - and that does not include dividends.

I can't help feeling more than a little bit smug about that!

I agree with comments by Piedro, Bhod and others - nothing about the company makes me keen to sell at the moment and I won't unless I see a better long term buy and hold (which at the moment I am struggling to find),

cheers

[bhoddhisattva] 18/1/2013 14:56

Afternoon folks - if you'll excuse me posting my personal view and opionion I see APF as being a long term buy and hold with a nice dividend and overall an upward trend as commodities go up in price.

For me it's varied between being 5% up and 25% or more up (ourely from memory) over the last 3-4 years as I've added more but the divis make that up to rsult overall in a nice tidy, steady growth which I appreciate.

[quepassa] 18/1/2013 10:48

six months.
Diarised.

[nielsc] 18/1/2013 10:40

QuePassa,

Thanks.
Shall we reconvene in 4.5 years and see how things stand then ;-)

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 18/1/2013 10:23

Niels.

Strayed, That's true. I was responding to a comment about Rothschild/Buffett made by another poster.

I don't really have anything more to add at this juncture, other than I sincerely hope that this share prospers for all holders.

QP

[thomas_uk] 18/1/2013 10:16

have a look at BZM

JORC update due now (most likely will be next week) while already producing and Iron ore at all time high.

was 90p + back in Q1 2011. so this resource upgrade will trigger rerating of BZM

per the latest RNS:
"Mr Baldwin said that the Forecariah JORC statement, completed in December, 2012 is currently under review by the JV management and that the Company expects to be in a position to release the statement to the market by mid-January, 2013"