Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 18/5/2011 10:19

cheers s-f good luck with the top-up.
(Adding CEY again though. could be in for a miners upswing).
H.

[haydock] 18/5/2011 10:19

We still have to verify the current holding ?

[christh] 18/5/2011 10:14

haydock,
Mantra resourses sale will be all over by 7 June.



Its not specifically mentioned in the APF yearly report(page 8) the holding but overall 25% including Berkely resources.

But going along with the holding in the headers £30-32 million payment thats very good .
It will increase the cash in the bank to £52 million.

If the holding is still 11,629,217 shares at $7.02 (AU$81,637,103.3)

[scottishfield] 18/5/2011 10:02

I can't see it H, waiting for some cash myself to top up, no worries here.

[christh] 18/5/2011 10:00

Hectorp,

the price fell as the small companies tracker funds had to offload their holdings as FSA & LSE rules meant they were contravening those rules.
(FD comments from the agm)

The company is now a FTSE 250 company and expected to be included in the FTSE 250 & 350 tracker funds.
But will also be included in the income & pension funds.
The price will go above the 400p but not overnight as this is a long term investment.
2 brokers that I trust have said "We are buyers".

[haydock] 18/5/2011 09:54

Latest Mantra details are significant & relevant.

However i posted a list of holders yesterday & which holding company was APF?

I seem to recall they had reduced , but surely they have not sold £30m worth ?

Are we still waiting for the jackpot ?

[hectorp] 18/5/2011 09:49

On such a down-chart, I'll await the turn, Mr Turner may be right.

- still watching, good bounce this AM though.

[christh] 18/5/2011 09:43

It is always a measure when you read textbooks.


THINGS TO WATCH
.Some of the companies do not pay a divi.
.Some of the companies are trading at up to 4 times or more their asset value.
.Some of the companies are heavily geared.
.Some of the companies are trading on expected profits.

NONE OF THIS IS REALISTIC AS THESE ARE BASED ON SPECULATION AND DO NOT GIVE A CLEAR PICTURE OF THE COMPANY.

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
APF is clear and transparent
.NO DEBTS,
.CONSTANT REVENUE,
.PROFITS RELIABLE,
.GROWING DIVIDEND,
.DIRECTORS COMMITED,
.ASSET VALUE DECLARED,
.NO SHARE DILUTION and
.VERY LOW OPERATING EXPENSES.

[rcturner2] 18/5/2011 09:18

I see. You didn't mean "heavily oversold" you meant "at a discount to NAV and paying a dividend". Since when has that ever been protection against a share price falling?

[christh] 18/5/2011 08:56

Mantra Resources
----------------------
Proposed Record Date for determination of entitlements to Scheme Consideration and Special Dividend
7.00pm Monday, 6 June 2011

Implementation Date
Thursday, 9 June 2011

•A$6.87 in cash for each share they own ('Scheme Consideration'); and
• an unfranked dividend of A$0.15 for each share they own ('Special Dividend').

$7.02 per share

[christh] 18/5/2011 08:46

RCTurner2 - 18 May'11 - 08:34 - 5350 of 5350

VERY SIMPLE

Total assets are £426.3 millions
No. of Shares in Issue 109.13 millions

Therefore price
426.3/109.13 =£3.91

This is indicating that is trading below the NAV.

And remember the directors have been buying at £3.40 and some other higher than that.

[rcturner2] 18/5/2011 08:34

Chris - what measure are you using to state that it is "oversold"?

If you look at RSI 14 and 40 it is anything but oversold, and this is what should be worrying the holders.

[christh] 18/5/2011 08:21

The price is now heavily oversold.
Remember has dropped from 367p to now 286p, lost 30% of the price.

Totally unjustified other than the sellers (small company fund trackers)which hopefully have cleared now.

The quarterly statement that came out yesterday shows that the profits are healthy, no debts, coal valuation is £197 millions, £22.5 million in the bank held in dollars(AU),euros,pounds and the dividend will be easily covered.

By the way the sale of Mantra will bring around £30-£32 million pound to the
company depending on $AU flactuation.

DYOR

[christh] 18/5/2011 08:07

Total assets of (GBP)426.3 million at March 31, 2011
At March 31, 2011 the Group's Australian coal royalty interests have been independently valued at (GBP)197.4 million compared to (GBP)177.1 million at December 31, 2010.
Coal valuation increased by £20.3 millions....meaning the group will receive higher revenue and more profits.


VERY IMPORTANT - NO DEBT
----------------------
At March 31, 2011 the Group had cash of (GBP)22.5 million compared to (GBP)28.3 million at December 31, 2010, with no borrowings or hedging.

NO EXPENSES
The Group has limited capital expenditure requirements other than for the acquisition of additional royalties.

DIVIDEND COVER
Management believe that the Group's current cash resources and future cash flows will be sufficient to cover the cost of general and administrative expenses, income taxes and dividend payments.

SPREAD IN CURRENCIES TO MINIMISE CURRENCY VOLATILITY
The Group remains debt free and its liquid resources are held in a spread of currencies and financial institutions. The Group's mining interests and royalty revenues are mainly denominated in Australian and Canadian dollars.



THERE YOU HAVE IT AN EXCELLENT & PROSPEROUS COMPANY

[christh] 18/5/2011 07:36

Royalty revenue was GBP9.9 million.
The Profit before tax for the three months ended March 31, 2011 was GBP13.3 million.

Very healthy profit.
Not many companies have that.

[gavapentin] 17/5/2011 21:12

I will stake my reputation (nothing that great!) on this not dropping below 275p.
At some point, value exceeds sentiment/shorts. I think we are close to that.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 20:50

You cannot predict the bottom, but you can have a good go at predicting the price direction, which seems quite clearly to be down. I am sure there will be a great buying opportunity coming up, but we havent got there yet.

[haywards26] 17/5/2011 20:28

Of course, but buying at a comfortable level of undervaluation is much better than trying to predict the market and await the bottom, and in the end miss it and miss out on the investment.

Research the company, it's fundamentals and have confidence in your judgement. Markets can be fickle but value will and does come through sooner or later. Times like this just present nice buying/top up opportunities.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 19:20

Haywards - I hear what you say, but your entry price makes a big difference to your long term returns. I am looking to buy this stock. But not at the moment, for the reasons I have outlined above.

[sammu] 17/5/2011 19:08

Hay
I can't think that the sale of Mantra holding was included in the results figures.
They may have sold out since the period end, or they are still holding.
IMO

[scottishfield] 17/5/2011 19:05

I have a slice of dosh coming shortly which I thinh will be going in here. This slide is not pleasant, but we are not alone! Invest is what I aim to do, I'm not a trader, gl all

[haydock] 17/5/2011 18:00

Still wondering about the current state of the Mantra holding.
Have they sold out already.Or are they due a huge windfall?

Any idea Piedro please?

[haywards26] 17/5/2011 16:44

I don't really see the fall as an issue, if you have paid for your shares and take a medium to long term value based investing style.

The whole market and especially commodity related stocks have been hit of late.

Taking too much notice of short term share price movements, only leads to short term investment decisions/styles, which IMO loose out to long term patience.

Buy on fundamentals and let management extract value from the company. This in turn will mean value is outed in the share price over time. Take advantage of such share price declines to top up if spare cash allows. If not, be patient and await for value to be realised, as it usually always will be if the fundamentals are sound. Which is the case in APF I believe.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 16:39

I think it could easily go to 250p and that will be a massive line. If they go through that then it will be freefall.

[edmondj] 17/5/2011 15:40

Shares that fall on low volume, however, can be buying opportunities.

I agree that sentiment has got the upper hand, maybe stop losses cutting in.

Short-term, markets are a voting machine, if ultimately a weighing machine.