Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[amitkoth] 10/5/2011 16:34

very soon. 14th may last year I believe.

[11mel] 10/5/2011 16:31

When is IMS due??

[scottishfield] 10/5/2011 11:33

& some buying at 315.3 on 24/04. I have been buying too!

[vosene] 10/5/2011 06:51

IIRC the directors bought around 180p during the financial crisis and it fell further to about 80p. They did a second round of buying though which was much closer to the bottom.

[edmondj] 10/5/2011 06:11

Directors can get it wrong!

Athough there does seem to be some kind of short-term issue, even if mainly market technical (seller?)

[christh] 10/5/2011 05:54

Price redicoulously low.
Heavily Oversold.
It has dropped from 367p to 302p, a drop of 21%.

Just remember the directors have been buying at 349p.
We could see a bounce to 330p by the end of the month and maybe earlier.
We still expect the FTSE 250 trackers to move in but do not know when the
fund managers will do that.
My opinion is to keep buying in your ISA.

DYOR

[haywards26] 09/5/2011 17:29

I have bought my second batch of APF today at 3.04. Will sit tight now and let the value be outed in due course.

[amitkoth] 09/5/2011 16:53

Rochdae,

I was checking their data to see if they separate Kestrel and Crinum, but income from them appears to be reported together, even though the operators are Rio and BHP. In any case, I'm of the opinion that Kestrel is the much more significant one and is also singled out as a "Key Royalty" in the Annual Report on their website. See this:

"Full-year hard coking coal production was expected to be 9.3 million tonnes, up from 8.97 million tonnes last year, Rio said."

From:


We'll find out as you say - but it only matters how Kestrel was affected, not the whole of Rio's operation in Aus. Also, worth noting this from Rio (side-note)

"The mine is currently constructing the US$1.1 billion Kestrel Mine extension, a project to access the mine's existing resources more efficiently. The extension, due for completion in 2012, will extend the life of the mine by 20 years, and increase mine capacity to up to 5.7 million tonnes per annum."

This means considerably higher gross royalties for APF next year :-)

[rochdae] 09/5/2011 16:39

amitkoth,

Yes, but the statement refers to 'when full production returns' this was before RIO and BHP issued statements about further production delays throughout 2011.

Of course, it may not be an issue. Let's wait for the IMS.

Roch

[jackster] 09/5/2011 16:38

Never thought this would drop below £3. Especially since most commodities are up today.

[amitkoth] 09/5/2011 08:21

Roch - the price of coking coal is now HIGHER than before in Queensland. It is set quarterly. Hence, the floods have been beneficial to income this quarter. Note the last statement from APF:

"Due to the floods in Queensland in January 2011 output at both the Kestrel and Crinum mines was disrupted and spot coking coal prices moved above US$300 per tonne. Neither mine was flooded but infrastructure road and rail links to and from the mines were affected. In the short term therefore disruption of production will have an impact on Group cash flows although, when full production resumes, the Group expects to benefit from the higher prices achieved for both coking and thermal coal."

Source:


The last couple of sentences are a clear indication. Consider also that this was already their most significant cash producing royalty. DYOR.

[rochdae] 06/5/2011 21:55

christh, can you elaborate on a quadrupling of profit before tax this year. I can't see it myself.

IMS statement due in the next few weeks. We might get an update on the production issues in Queensland, which I feel are holding this back.

Anyway, will buy more of these at some point.

Roch

[christh] 05/5/2011 09:40

Gold miners, such as Africa's Randgold, which today posted higher profits and production for the first quarter, and Russia's Petropavlovsk, are among the most prominent risers.
Indian mining giant Vedanta produced record volumes of commodities as prices soared, helping it post a sharp rise in full-year profits. In the year to 31 March, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) rose by 55% from the previous year to $3.6bn (£2.2bn), on revenues that climbed 44% to $11.4bn.

APF is in prominent position to quadruple its profits this year!

[christh] 05/5/2011 08:59

China's Coal Prices to Rise in May on Low Stockpiles
Bloomberg News - May 5, 2011

Power-station coal prices in China may rise in May before stabilizing, as inventories at ports remain low, China Coal Transport and Distribution Association said.

The increase in domestic prices will slow as port stockpiles gradually increase, aided by government orders to boost coal supplies and resumption of normal rail transport capacity on the Daqin line after maintenance in April, the association said in the report published on its website today.

Rising coal prices in China have deterred purchases by utilities and coupled with higher-than-expected industrial activity, have caused power shortages in some regions. Prices at Qinhuangdao port, a Chinese benchmark, rose to the highest in more than two years. Stockpiles there fell to the lowest in a year this week, according to data from the association May 3.

Coal imports will increase in May as buyers turn to global supplies in the face of high domestic prices, China Coal Transport said.

[amitkoth] 05/5/2011 08:08

IMS was out 14/15th May last year.

[christh] 05/5/2011 07:52

From FT
-------------------------------
Mexican central bank buys 100 tonnes of gold
Largest monthly purchase in a decade in move to diversify reserves


Gold could hit $4,000 an ounce over the next three to five years says hedge-fund manager John Paulson

[haywards26] 04/5/2011 17:12

I have a limited order top up in play, I wonder if it shall be triggered tomorrow (303.1p). Hope so :)

[weeeck] 04/5/2011 16:46

I think a lot of the selling today was caused by holders wanting to lock in the divi before they sold. They were in theory able to do that as they have now gone x-dividend but they had to have been very quick as the share price drop has now exceeded the divi. On the strength of nothing else changing I have just topped up (again).

[amitkoth] 04/5/2011 15:51

Snuddy - that article was Shares Mag I believe

[snuddy] 04/5/2011 15:39

christh,

I have been a small (but bigger now thanks to the share price) holder of APF since 2004 and hugely admire the management.

Your article that you posted on 27th April at 09:36 is a brilliant write up - may I ask where it is from?

many thanks,

[amitkoth] 04/5/2011 11:25

The price for this company at present is basically, ridiculous. This might be the best buying opportunity of the next decade.

Coking coal prices from Kestrel, etc. are set quarterly, and this quarters' price is excellent. Production from Mundo/gold should start in the coming few quarters, as well as a range of other interests. The quality of the core Kestrel holding is superb, probably the best coking coal mine in the world. APF has been run conservatively and smartly for decades, it hasn't turned up yesterday.

In addition to having mounds of cash at hand, the impending royalties and extremely low overheads to run this business as a debt-free cash machine are highly attractive. I've done a full break-down of the assets and there is a great deal of hidden value like like private holdings and the Canada coal.

If they start moving out of their public shareholdings and convert the gains into long-term royalties (which they are doing) - they will bank the equity gains and lock in long term royalty flows.

In valuation terms, if Franco Nevada can be valued at 50 times earnings, this has a very, very long way up to go. This is all the gain without the pain (of a commodity producer/actual mine).

Whichever way I look at this, I simply can't find an issue. The risk is of course commodity prices, etc, but with their range of assets - esp. the superb chromite asset with Empire Mining - the chances of any real effect on the viability of this business is essential zero.

DYOR and IMO. Just keep it quiet, don't want the in/out types.

[scottishfield] 03/5/2011 12:20

added today at ~ 3.22 great price, gl all.

[haydock] 03/5/2011 09:31

China & coal:

[christh] 01/5/2011 09:58

Director's Share Dealings
28 Apr 2011

Anglo Pacific Group PLC ("the Company") (LSE: APF) (TSX: APY) announces that Anthony Yadgaroff, Non-executive Director, bought today 2,714 shares in the Company at a price of 315.3p per share. Following this notification his revised beneficial interest in the Company is now 166,812 shares representing approximately 0.15% of the issued ordinary share capital.