Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[haydock] 19/5/2011 09:39

Well he certainly lit up the bb !!!

[horburyjunction] 19/5/2011 09:31

Wonder if RCTurner2 got burnt with his short?

[haydock] 19/5/2011 09:27

Not the case, the power line is on the way &the area is opening up.
Whilst i have not time to refer back you will find that plans for the coal are now advancing.
It used to be a non mentioned item, but in the last few years it has started to be on the front burner.
J/v's & sales are possible, as well as development.
Work has been progressing, which is the reason for the upward revaluation from the original figure of £120.000.

Highway to the future: really does have significance.

[mozy123] 19/5/2011 09:17

haydock - yes I see your point, but you are talking years for those assets to be producing, which is no good to APF.

In time yes they will come good but i cant see how they have more than a minimal value at present.

[haydock] 19/5/2011 08:49

Mozy123

You are still missing the real coal value.
Look at the list of the CDN coal at the top of the page here.

Then find it in the accounts & work out a value !

[hectorp] 19/5/2011 08:11

long since filtered.

[gavapentin] 18/5/2011 20:50

Christh - I now understand by Piedro cannot stand you!

You are incorrect about me being a shorter - totally. I have never shorted any share, let alone APF which if you read my posts (inc. on AFR BB) is always about what a fabulous company it is.

I have been on this thread longer than you and have been invested longer than you.

Don't go pointing fingers. I mentioned 275p as I thought that would be the nadir. I didn't want it to drop below 350p let alone to 275p. You are incredibly annoying.

[christh] 18/5/2011 20:49

Indeed Axa increase their holding to 5%.
Hopefully most of the fund managers will be piling in now.

[christh] 18/5/2011 20:41

Mozy,
this is the latest update from Management's Discussion and Analysis posted yesterday.
A pleasure to read and is all clear.
I post some extracts from it.



page 2-3 says

Kestrel coal royalties in the three months ended March 31, 2011 were (GBP)5.6 million (A$8.9 million) compared to (GBP)3.4 million (A$5.8 million) for the three months ended March 31, 2010. Production at Kestrel remained entirely in private royalty coal areas during the current quarter. Overall saleable production decreased 12% when compared to the three months ended March 31, 2010 however as a result of the wet weather and overall production problems in coking coal mines of Central Queensland March quarterly price negotiations have resulted in an increase in prices to circa US$328 per tonne, compared to spot prices circa US$220 per tonne at the same time last year.
Industry consensus on coking coal prices currently indicate they will remain high for 2011 due to continuing supply difficulties in Queensland. Recent media reports state that the planned Kestrel expansion is still currently scheduled to come on-stream in early 2013.

Financial position page 3
Total assets of £426.3 million at March 31, 2011 compared to £415.6million at December 31, 2010(Annual report 2010).

At March 31, 2011 the Group's Australian coal royalty interests have been independently valued at £197.4 million compared to £177.1 million at December 31, 2010.
The increase was due to higher forecast prices being incorporated into the independent valuation. The Group's royalty instruments following fair value adjustments were valued at £27.9 million at March 31, 2011 compared to £28.1 million at December 31, 2010.

THANKS!
GOOD LUCK!

[haywards26] 18/5/2011 20:25

Nice bounce today, and nice to see plenty of posts, and more positive posts too. Long may it continue.

[mozy123] 18/5/2011 20:21

Axa just bought 10k shares!

[mozy123] 18/5/2011 20:20

Hi Chris,

Been looking at the annual report - the coal royalties were lasted valued as the NPV of the cash flows discounted at 7%

Revenue from theses assets was £29.9mil @ an average of $200 a tonne

1/0.07 = 14.28 - Perpetuity

Less 30% tax = 9.96 (wrong way to do it, should use Dual Rate YP) hey ho.

so if coal prices stay at $200 a tonne for the next 14.28 years and the production remains constant, which its going to increase in 2012 due to $1.1bil mine upgrade, i would buy the royalty for APF's coal for £298mil if i was an investor looking for a 7% return on my money.

so value it at £177mil as per annual accounts it looks very cautious, and would reflect a 8-9% yield in reality.

Although crude, i think APF's net asset value is considerably more than the cautious accounts.

[scottishfield] 18/5/2011 20:13

the other chap, sowing seeds of doom & gloom has gone away, hurray! off to france for 2 weeks myself, gl all.

[christh] 18/5/2011 19:40

gavapentin - 18 May'11 - 17:14 - 5396 of 5396

Why mention 275p then?Unless you trying to influence or create an uncertainty
for will be buyers.
Strange though posting negative comments for someone who's been investing in a company from the beginning.
Unless of course you are a shorter,which your profile fits in!
I hope you did not get caught out, sold out then you had to come and buy back
dearer!

Some of the traders tried to short it but it turned sour as this is a quality company and it does not work.
Hopefully they have learnt their lesson well and will stay away.

I called the bottom at 298p but I was wrong as shorters got the better of me and it dropped to 280p.

Neverthless I have never lost my confidence for this company as I have done my research well and listen to smarter sensible people in the trade than me, as well talking to company directors if something bothers me.
I trusted my money to them, they owe me an explanation.
Its sad as I was dried out and could not add more but I am happy with what I bought at 367p, as this is my nest egg, my pension

[gavapentin] 18/5/2011 17:14

Christh - not sure of your post there - are you sure you read my post correctly?
I was saying that 275p would be the absolute low point. It reached 280p
I was pretty close actually.

I don't need you telling me when to buy or that this is quality - I have been in since 15p! Added all the way.

[hectorp] 18/5/2011 16:51

Well I WAS right about the bounce , when it came it would be very fast. Still had to pay 296p this morning.
- Drewz maybe, or maybe not. But what will the miners be priced at come October?
H.

[christh] 18/5/2011 15:57

gavapentin - 17 May'11 - 21:12 - 5346 of 5393

I will stake my reputation (nothing that great!) on this not dropping below 275p.
At some point, value exceeds sentiment/shorts. I think we are close to that.



NICE TRY, IT DID NOT WORK, BUT LETS HOPE YOU GOT SOME.

YOU CAN NOT BEAT QUALITY.

APF is a Quality stock.

[christh] 18/5/2011 15:54

drewz - 18 May'11 - 15:40 - 5392 of 5392

dream on!

[drewz] 18/5/2011 15:40

Expect to see 250p before 400p.

There is plenty of weakness in the mining sector still to express itself through the summer.

Theoretically the commodities supercycle still has at least another 5 years to run before increased production catches up with aggregate demand, but I don't believe this short-term correction has run it's course yet.

Give it another 3 months to buy those bargain priced miners.

[gavapentin] 18/5/2011 15:27

Whether we like to think so or not, we still tend to trade to even/significant numbers, so maintaining for 3 days over 300p should provide a very solid base.
Still my largest holding by a long shot together with Afren

[snuddy] 18/5/2011 15:25

I think that figure of 4.9% holding of Mantra is still correct and thus represents a significant proportion of the quoted investments.

Agree that a close above 300p which it certainly appears to be achieivng will be very positive for further advances. I'm just waiting for it to reach 400p!!

[christh] 18/5/2011 15:16

Haydock,
I have tried to get the figure out of the FD in the agm and turned around and said I can disclose that is company confidential.

One thing they will not do with the money is the share Buyback.
Although they have granted the option they specifically said they will invest the money.
But they never said anything about a special divi resulting from the Mantra proceeds.

[christh] 18/5/2011 15:01

The company ARMZ is paying AU$7.02 including the divi(see my earlier post).

I will suggest around £30-£32 million but it will all come out in the wash on the 7th June.

[haydock] 18/5/2011 14:55

O.K then it's settled as Mantra 4.9% at the last count.
Definatley a holding somebody guess the cash !!