Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[togglebrush] 17/5/2011 15:26

LONDON (ShareCast) - Global natural resources royalty company Anglo Pacific saw its total income drop to £14.84m in the quarter ended 31 March, from £17.49m the year before.

The decline was attributed to just £4.43m being achieved from the gain on sale of mining and exploration interests during the period, compared with £12.6m previously.

However, the firm saw royalty revenues more than double to £9.9m, from £4.6m, despite the short-term disruption to output at both Ketrel and Crinum mines caused by the Queensland floods in January.

Pre-tax profit narrowed to £13.26m, from £17.79m, while earnings per share fell from 15.47p to 9.72p.

"The group continues to identify a range of new royalty opportunities. Management believes the group is well placed with its cash resources and strong royalty revenues to continue its growth strategy," the statement said.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 14:45

On a stock like this I think that the underlying fundamentals are not playing a big part in the share price movements any more. If I held this stock I would be very worried, as you have seen a real turn in the price on a fairly small turn in the RSI. The trade figures suggest not that big an imbalance between buyers and sellers, so what happends when you start to see volume selling?

[amitkoth] 17/5/2011 14:26

Blimey, RCTurner was right! No end in sight.

[amitkoth] 17/5/2011 13:22

Feels like that has some element of truth as well :-) good luck anyway

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 12:59

I'm all for research ;-) It's rare that facts all point one way in my experience. Even good companies go through periods of share price falls. It looks like a weak share in a weak market. The underlying company seems sound but at the moment IMHO the likely movement of the share price is down.

[amitkoth] 17/5/2011 12:44

RCTurner,

The company is prospering. EPS speaks for itself. Kestrel coal is now being sold at a price that is well above expectations. Other royalties are adding accretive cash to this core royalty. Further, by 2012, the Kestrel extension will further add royalty income. So yes, the income is increasing and well forecast/predictable. I would certainly say APF is prospering and will prosper more, from the facts we have.

Second, underlying value is quite simple - they have provided valuations on all their parts, the sum of which indicate a current deep discount. Further, there is value here that is hidden (at cost).

I suggest doing a bit more research on APF. Might be dangerous to short when all the facts point one way ;-) Imo. These are simple commodities, and APF has no mining risks, they simply bank cheques effortlessly.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 12:30

Firstly - is the company prospering? Will eps be lower this year then last?

Secondly - underlying value is a very tricky concept and I have seen discounts from small to large on all types of businesses.

[edmondj] 17/5/2011 12:08

RCTurner2,

You clearly have a firm conviction from the charts, but do you really think 'a good short' arises in a situation where a company is prospering and market price is at a discount to underlying value; surely it is better to focus on companies where the fundamentals are deteriorating?

Have seen sentiment turn dramatically in coal shares, e.g. the roller coaster that was Western Coal Corp.

Best of luck though; am awaiting a buying opportunity.

[haydock] 17/5/2011 11:53

If the scheme is passed APF will recieve on the 9th of June:
$A 7.02 per share for the mantra holding:
Currently?

If they still have a holding : anybody remember the nominee names?

Total Share Rights on issue:
135,326,194


4,989,919
350,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
6,839,919



2,273,154
300,000
2,573,154


Substantial Shareholders
(as at 10 May 2011)

Name
No. of Ordinary
Shares Held
Percentage of Issued Shares (%)

HIGHLAND PARK S.A.
16,162,915
11.94

DEANS KNIGHT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD
11,458,294
8.46

JP MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT UK LTD
8,323,191
6.15

TOTALS
35,944,400
26.55


Top 20 Shareholders
(as at 20 September 2010)

Name
No. of Ordinary
Shares Held
Percentage of Issued Shares (%)

CDS & CO
34,764,294
26.69

ANZ NOMINEES LIMITED
21,195,209
16.28

HIGHLAND PARK S.A.
16,080,649
12.35

J P MORGAN NOMINEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED
8,375,978
6.43

HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED
6,469,172
4.97

MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LIMITED
6,076,857
4.67

NATIONAL NOMINEES LIMITED
3,738,245
2.87

HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED - A/C 3
2,701,450
2.07

CITICORP NOMINEES PTY LIMITED
2,574,626
1.98

NEFCO NOMINEES PTY LTD
1,906,636
1.46

ARREDO PTY LTD
1,640,000
1.26

MR ROBERT ARTHUR BEHETS + MRS KRISTINA JANE BEHETS
1,609,415
1.24

INVIA CUSTODIAN PTY LIMITED
1,500,000
1.15

MR ERNEST SARONGA MASSAWE
1,376,772
1.06

HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED - A/C 2
1,275,058
0.98

COLBERN FIDUCIARY NOMINEES PTY LTD
952,976
0.73

HSBC CUSTODY NOMINEES (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED - GSCO ECA
849,570
0.65

MOUNTAINSIDE INVESTMENTS PTY LTD
809,901
0.62

MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) NOMINEES PTY LIMITED
780,361
0.60

BOUCHI PTY LTD
756,042
0.58

TOTALS
115,433,211
88.64


Share Price

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 11:31

haydock - I would like to buy some, but it seems highly likely to go lower from here. I have actually gone short for now, sorry!

[haydock] 17/5/2011 11:21

No problem, look at the last 5 years it often goes down & then performs really well over time & pays out like a money box !!
Usually tempting to buy more: the divi will go further.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 11:11

I would say that on technical indicators this share is going down. You have had a long period of positive RSI which is now turning negative, you have broken the uptrend and moved below the moving average (30 day). Added together these do not make a good story.

[hectorp] 17/5/2011 11:11

hay and Ed, on my watch list. I don't like the market at the moment, but will return.

H.

[rcturner2] 17/5/2011 10:11

Just out of interest what figures are you guys using to work out the NAV per share?

[haydock] 17/5/2011 09:37

Good morning E.J, i rubbed the lamp !!

Personally I have always looked at APF as an I/T, so net asset value & the hidden coal are what makes it attractive long term.
Similar to Black rock W.Mining in performance plus a better divi.
The comparative discount is @14% & the divi 0.8

Clearly you are on the right track with your comments as some of the other commodity I/Ts are also at large discount at the moment.Not over 40% though with a divi!!

Many thanks for the reply, interesting to know you are back on this bb.

{Tom Cross seems to be reving up PMG in the Scottish papers ! }

Regards Hay.

[edmondj] 17/5/2011 09:23

Possibly, in a more cautious environment, the market switches to emphasising the royalty income and disregards the top-up from disposals, also the NAV. Although this is just sentiment.

The market also seems to have tightened up so even if an investor does want to accumulate APF it might be tricky. Hence a lack of interest perhaps.

[haydock] 17/5/2011 09:15

When one of the Investment trust revalues, there is often a flurry of interest to examine the discount.
Well it is quite clear today that APF is trading @ a discount of @30%
Then if you add in the 100m of CDN coal not on the balence sheet at its true value you have a discount in the region of 45%
Not a stat man, so only a crude guess.

Any comments E.J? Would be very much appreciated.

DYOR

[amitkoth] 17/5/2011 07:48

Very little effect from the floods. In fact, that coking coal price above $300 is what I mentioned earlier in this thread. If that sustains, this will be well above expectations for this year. Amapa royalty starting to come online as well. imo.

[amitkoth] 17/5/2011 07:41

Very strong results. If they maintain 40p eps annually, that puts them on a low single digit p/e. For a company with such predictable long term cash flows, With no debts and very little in the way of costs, that will eventually out. And if it starts being valued at a p/e of 50 like some of it's Canadian peers, then we're in for a long long ride. I'm sitting nice and tight on my pile and adding more on weakness. Dyor.

[scottishfield] 16/5/2011 22:34

I hope so christh, I have sold a few of my 'single' shares to reinvest here over the last 2 months, seeing it as a less volitile beast (which I still believe it is). The last 2 or 3 months have been very dispappointing generally in miners & oilers, which I tend to focus on. I now have 9 different shares as opposed to 15 or 16 in January. Anyway onwards & upwards etc.

[christh] 16/5/2011 22:14

Those who bought today must be very lucky, as that was the bottom.
I now expect a good run to 350p.
Just be patient.
This is a thriving company.

[rcturner2] 16/5/2011 14:29

Just got an automated email on a price I set a while ago for this stock. This has really turned round. I will continue to watch for now.

[amitkoth] 16/5/2011 14:19

Might be a bit of tree-shaking ahead of tomorrows statement. Or generally, a fund, etc. selling because they have to.

The value here is obviously not in question.

[drewz] 16/5/2011 12:22

Where will this find support - 275p? 250p?

The slide has got to stop soon, surely.

This retrace has taken on a momentum of its own, like a snowball rolling downhill, gathering mass and momentum, regardless of intrinsic value; in that way it is similar to what afflicted AFF recently post-split.

[rathkum] 16/5/2011 12:09

The recent chart downtrend was a worrying signal