Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[haywards26] 06/4/2011 14:12

drewz, I remember reading previously whilst researching APF that they were not materially affected by the floods. Could anyone else confirm that?

[drewz] 06/4/2011 14:06

Will the Queensland floods knock back royalty income as production is lost this year?

Any guidance from the company on this? Even to say production from our coal mines will not be materially affected.

If not, why not?

The coal price is steadily rising because of the lost production, yet APF is in a present down trend since 7 Jan 2011.

Suggests a short-term knock back to royalty income perhaps?

[haywards26] 06/4/2011 14:00

Thanks scottishfield,

The mantra deal alone should give the share price some uplift. Of the likely £30 mill proceeds, in what region would the gain on disposal be?

[scottishfield] 06/4/2011 13:02

good entry hay26, bout time the share price got going, & I'm sure it will. gl to you.

[haywards26] 06/4/2011 13:00

I am in here today at 3.19.

I like the low cost model and management here.

[christh] 04/4/2011 23:14

I forgot to mention.....Mantra has been taken over and a total of $7.02
will be paid to shareholders including APF which will get a cool sum of
£30-£32 million.

[christh] 04/4/2011 23:09

I think the buying has started by the institutions.
The last BUY today of 95,000 at 348p is the beginning.

Now that is in the FTSE 250 will be more visible and transparent to
investors.
What does it mean for APF?

1.More analyst/broker coverage
2.Investment by institutions and Fund managers
3.Media coverage and of course bigger jump of the shareprice in any
announcenments.

The next push is 400p.

[quepassa] 04/4/2011 08:22

Difficult to know about Friday afternoon.

There seems to have been nothing fundamental to APF to cause the late sell-off.

My belief is that this was technical. Specifically, to do with APF's noteable elevation to inclusion into The FTSE 250 index .

Certain professional small cap investors whose strict investment criteria to invest in stocks outside the FTSE 250 were forced to sell by their own internal guide-lines and they waited until the last moment to dispose of their holdings.

If this is the case, the flip-side to the equation will also be true, that going forward FTSE 250 investment funds will need/want to take positions in APF.

There are more FTSE 250 professionals investors/funds than small-cap investors. I believe that over the course of the next weeks, those "new to APF" investors in FTSE 250 stocks will start to do their analysis on APF and that these new buyers will far outweigh the forced small-cap sellers.

I remain bullish on APF. Having gained its FTSE 250 stripes, APF will now be on the radar to many, many more professional investors than hitherto and , on the basis of APF's track-record and holdings, we can now expect that APF has now been opened up to a whole new horizon of investors who will be keenly interested to buy.

ALL IMO. DUOR.

QP

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2011 07:57

offical announcement now out...

Anglo Pacific Group PLC ('the Company', 'Anglo Pacific') (LSE: APF) (TSX: APY) is pleased to announce that it has today been admitted to the FTSE 250 index.

Commenting on the admission, Peter Boycott, Chairman of Anglo Pacific, said:

"The Group's promotion to the FTSE 250 index is an exciting milestone for the Company resulting from its strong growth over the past ten years. Anglo Pacific is now established as the leading natural resources royalty company in the UK."

[bountyhunter] 04/4/2011 07:53

I agree, quite likely.

[christh] 04/4/2011 06:17

I still insist that the shareprice will be around 340p this week.

Just think what the directors bought!

And the divi to come!

[bountyhunter] 03/4/2011 20:17

good luck tomorrow NTV, but don't want or expect it to stay there long! ...if at all

[ntv] 03/4/2011 16:55

yep
but still 460k left to fill in auction so could go lower

[bountyhunter] 02/4/2011 17:58

Hi NTV, did you get the UT price? I think you will be lucky to get any lower on Monday! ;-) rgds bh

[ntv] 02/4/2011 13:41

bought a few in auction
would like another dip monday to get a nice vwap
happy times

[gengulphus] 02/4/2011 11:39

'UT ' Uncrossing Trade
This is used for the single uncrossing trade, detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction.

Good spot,missed that.So i guess it could be a trade prompted by year end tax considerations or yes,perhaps index shuffle considerations.That's near 1% of the equity.Anyway,it's done and dusted.

No, an "Uncrossing Trade" is not a single trade in any meaningful sense. It's the amalgamation of all the trades produced in an "auction" - in this case, the closing auction for the share at the end of the trading day (which normally runs from 16:30 to about 16:35 each day for all shares traded on electronic order books, though the end is occasionally delayed).

During an auction, normal matching of orders is suspended, and the allowed order types change - the bits I remember are that limit orders remain possible, "at best" and "fill or kill" orders become impossible, and "market" orders become possible - they are orders to deal for a given number of shares at whatever price the auction ends up producing. The system just accumulates orders without matching them up to each other for the duration of the auction, then at the end of the auction it does a big matching of all of them, choosing a price that allows buy and sell orders for the largest possible number of shares to be matched up to each other (*). The idea is basically that that price represents the best available balance between buyers and sellers - if a higher price were chosen, there would be too few buyers, if a lower price, too few sellers.

Then a single UT trade report is generated for all the matched buy and sell orders combined - it's basically a trade between multiple buyers and multiple sellers. The net result is that it simply doesn't make sense for a UT trade:

* To classify it as a "buy" or a "sell" - it's very likely to be multiple buys and multiple sells all at once, quite possibly with both sides including market makers and market-maker-like participants (e.g. RSPs).

* To speculate about the motives of "the seller" or "the buyer" - it's unlikely that there is just one buyer or one seller (especially for a particularly big UT trade), that the motives of the multiple buyers are all the same, or that the motives of the multiple sellers are all the same.

It is of course possible to speculate about the motives of the multiple buyers and sellers in a UT trade - just don't make the mistake of thinking that there is just one of them! E.g. a possible explanation is a number of people selling with low limits or market orders because of end-of-tax-year considerations (it's more important to them to get the shares sold than to achieve the best possible price), combined with a number of funds or others that want to build up holdings putting in limit buy orders at low prices on an opportunistic "you never know, we might pick up some shares cheaply" basis. If that's what happened, there are doubtless quite a few decidedly pleased new holders and aggravated old holders out there right now...

In case you're wondering, auctions are used when it's particularly important to get an accurate price - in particular, there are opening auctions each day to set the official opening price, closing auctions each day to set the official closing price, and auctions on the third Friday each month to set the official prices for option expiries. They're also sometimes used in the middle of the day as a "let's all sit back and calm down for a moment, and settle on a share price" mechanism if a share price is moving rapidly.

(*) There are some 'tiebreaker' criteria to choose the exact price if there are multiple prices that allow the same maximum number to be traded. I don't remember details of them!

Gengulphus

[christh] 02/4/2011 11:14

A great opportunity to make use of your ISA.
The price is now heavily discounted.

Just remember that the Directors have been buying the shares.

I expect the price next week to go back to 350p or more depending on momentum.

Meanwhile keep an eye on APF assets as the share price on their holdings grow daily.


Any news coming will push the price to 360p.

Agm is on the 13 April.
Come along and meet the board and ask your questions.

The x-divi is on 5 May

[latecomer5] 02/4/2011 10:46

I would guess that there are a number of specialist 'small cap' funds unloading because they are unable to hold stocks in the 250 index. 'Forced sellers' always seem to get squeezed but other funds (trackers etc) will have to buy in soon - and collectively they will need more than 1%!

[steeplejack] 02/4/2011 10:01

'UT ' Uncrossing Trade
This is used for the single uncrossing trade, detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction.

Good spot,missed that.So i guess it could be a trade prompted by year end tax considerations or yes,perhaps index shuffle considerations.That's near 1% of the equity.Anyway,it's done and dusted.

[togglebrush] 02/4/2011 07:06

Trade data from Barclays

Time Volume / Price
15:48 10,000 @ 337.75p
16:40 47 @ 320.00p
16:35 819,683 @ 320.00p
16:29 3,452 @ 319.00p

Based on ADVFN data the median daily trading volume is some 99,000
A 1 in 50 trading day starts at 873,000

The 16:35 819,683 @ 320.00p trade therefore is;-
one trade which is 8 times a normal volume for a full trading day.
It is also close to a 1 in 50 trading day but all in one single trade.

Shares in issue is over 108 million

[bountyhunter] 01/4/2011 23:31

I agree steeplejack most likely a technical feature due to that large UT trade which I highlighted earlier and unlikely to remain at that level Monday imo.

[steeplejack] 01/4/2011 22:28

Ordinarily,a stock rises before inclusion in an index and tends to weaken once included.I find the fall rather bemusing.The FTSE 100 is the top 100 and the 250 index the next 250 largest by mkt cap down to 350 largest.The All Share is ,as put earlier, the All Share and includes all.

It's a question of MARKET CAPITILISATION .The Small Cap Index is neither here nor there in terms of total market capitilisation compared with even a large FTSE 100 constituent and that's what counts when institutions determine their weightings which are made with reference to market cap.Institutions aren't going to be massively overweight in the small cap index just cos that's what they've been marketing!! .Let's see what happens on Monday,i think the fall late on is purely technical.

[jackster] 01/4/2011 22:20

Didn't notice that trade bountyhunter - that probably explains the fall.

[bountyhunter] 01/4/2011 21:16

The FTSE All-Share is the aggregation of the FTSE 100 Index, FTSE 250 Index and FTSE SmallCap Index so still includes APF. The inclusion in the FTSE 250 is in addition to inclusion in the All Share index.