Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 08/7/2020 11:54

ODR
problem is the jurisdiction as you say. The Russians are gangsters the fact one has shown his hand is worrying. It may all blow over or may be the start of a campaign to wrest control of the company, and not at a fair price. I am watching with interest to buy back in if the story changes to a safer outlook.

[2sporrans] 08/7/2020 11:44

CV19 and CB/Gov't responses to it have hugely exacerbated problems investors were facing before pandemic hit, in terms of asset risk and valuation.

Ever more monetary largess since the GFC hit 2008 crushed rates forcing investors
to take on ever more asset risk to seek even modest real returns.
Cash was pretty much killed as an investable asset before 2020; only merit as
a temporary refuge.
AAA bonds have become a play for capital gains on ever lower yields; the income
streams themselves of little significance for quite some time now.
Only high credit risk bonds offer substantial yields; equities are more of an income
play than bonds in today's warped world.

Then we have CV19 and now even stacks of equities are suffering from a similar
dilemna.
So many sectors of the 'established' economy under the cosh, pretty much synonymous with cyclical+defensive/value stocks.
You have to pay a lot for either a truly defensive share with a secure dividend or for a growth one in the 'new' economy.
The latter replete with very high valuations and DCFs flattered by ever lower discount rates, courtesy of the largess.
Investors are driven into plays that are increasingly ones on future, long term growth and cash flows, less on here and now, recovering/ongoing ones.
Size also matters; bigger enhances odds of enduring pricing power of the growers and survival/damage-limitation of the latter.

In the context of the above, the attraction of AAZ is obvious to all here.
Been stated countless times so no point in repeating yet again.

Yet, any small gold miner will be perceived, by most investors, to be a pretty high risk asset, particularly if its resource is concentrated in just one licence area.
Any perceived risk to AAZ's excellent cashflow or doubts as to the longer term, growth prospects will result in higher discount and volatility, in an 'inelastic' manner.
On the latter score, methinks this has been reflected in an increased tendency to trade, to play the churn, whether dipping in/out or trading around a core holding.
Given the small free float of the share capital, modest trading volumes shift the price about a lot.

I don't know how many investors harbour concerns as to mine closure risk but given
the rising toll of these globally, seems likely to be a fair % to me.
Yes, you can say it's unlikely for AAZ...but does everyone else see it that way?
fwliw, i think the risk is low, however there have been lockdown consequences as we all know.
Not much to production, nor to exploration we are told.
Has been to newsflow though.
Lack of newsflow leads to rising uncertainty, extending to doubts when the
expected newsflow fails to materialise.

We know why the JORCs are being held up but i don't think we have been
well informed as to why there was no Q1 exploration update, as all expected.
So, we'll very likely receive a H1 update and i expect a lot will ride on it.
Does it matter that Steve Westhead is off site, in UK?
Probably not, but just another niggle.

A while since the last [communicated] chartered flight gold sale.
Some will be glad, expect a large sale to be made for $1800+/oz....
For others maybe just another niggling uncertainty.....why the hold?

As ever, no risk = no reward.
To extent risks are more perceived than real, and volatility bears little/no
relationship to the underlying investment case, these both offer up chances to
top up at discounts; just as Qas has done this am.

[cannonfodd3r] 08/7/2020 11:44

On the JV front, makes me wonder if they know more on the porphyry and want to line up someone with funding or more likely knowledge of getting to depth to exploit it. Just a thought

[onedayrodders] 08/7/2020 11:42

Not a holder of POG but don't like the recent newsflow there.

Just shows you in certain jurisdictions, even when things are apparently all hunky dory the waters can turn murky instantly.

Might be a storm in a tea cup

[bazboa] 08/7/2020 11:41

If people just sat on their hands it wouldnt keep treading water. The fact that so many say they trade this should be all you need to know.

[cinoib] 08/7/2020 11:40

ilostthelot, maybe, but something needs to shift this as has been range bound for over a year while all around keep marching forward and the spread doesn't help. How many other profitable gold stocks do you know that have a spread this big and have barely moved in a year. I know none. Or would you rather I went on about c19 like evryone else, because that is really getting on my nerves, it's as if nothing else was happening in the world. What you don't see on the news is that the virus was found in Brazilian, French and I think the other was Italian water supplies back in March 19, all it was waiting for was a trigger. Also China has an antidote which it is currently administering to the forces and then to all airline staff before the general population. Now that's news.

[lefrene] 08/7/2020 11:14

The managers are of a mind to build a much bigger company, we await "shortly" to see what deal they have lined up. I suspect any takeover would have to be above £400 million for it to tempt them to give up their ambitions of building a large mining company. With wealthy men it's often not about money any more, they already have all they need, it's more about proving themselves, demonstrating that they can do a better job than others. The managers here have already demonstrated their superior skills, so those skills repeated across other projects will in time create a very substantial business.

Good to see gold pass $1800, no doubt it will have to defend that level before moving up again, but gold does seem to be the canary in the mine of money printing.

[donald pond] 08/7/2020 11:13

Having waited so long for this to approach fair value I'd welcome a takeover.

[e43] 08/7/2020 11:11

Very hard to know SC, present price action could also have a connection to imminent JV announcement,personally happy to add a few more at these levels

[cinoib] 08/7/2020 11:07

See what I mean, through 1800 and we go down while all others go up. I sold 1/2 my holding last week when divi day went through, very pleased as the other goldy I went into is showing a profit.

[supercity] 08/7/2020 11:04

Especially with the price of gold continuing to rise and the daft spread we have had for several weeks on the share

[supercity] 08/7/2020 11:02

It can happen with any share - doesn't matter who owns what if someone makes an offer and the management see a retirement situation it can very easily happen...they are in business to make money after all.It wouldn't be a bad thing as most on here (me included) believe it should be trading nearer 200p and any bid would naturally come at a higher level than the price currently sits.I think back to the rns in August last year.Just seems odd that there is such a resistance to moving higher when nearly every other share out there is on the move

[gold finger 1] 08/7/2020 10:37

supercity

No don't agree.
The management own too much of the company and there are a lot of long term holders here,holding a large %.

[c0lin1] 08/7/2020 10:11

that cant happen here

[supercity] 08/7/2020 10:09

The price action reminds me of RRE in the past month where the company looked so undervalued and then in came a buyout offer - I hope the price isn't being held to allow someone to bid on the cheap here

[droyden] 08/7/2020 10:08

ATH within a whisker

[lefrene] 08/7/2020 10:07

If we repeat last year we should see an update on the 15th. Probably lower production but at a better price, so perhaps more gross revenue for a bit less ore.

[gold finger 1] 08/7/2020 10:05

No c19 is not helping.
But its not stopping them from working and increasing the profit.
Its the same for every miner,some had to close down for a while also,but they are not treated in the same way as here.

I have to agree with mad foetus we don't seem to be moving forward.
We all know c19 has held up a lot of thing,mostly the jorc.
There is little the company can do about that at this moment it seems.

We are at the mercy of the MMs the buyer and the seller.
But to not have moved from a year ago on the rise of gold alone is not right.
One year ago today gold was at $1400, today $1800.
That is an extra $80,000 a day from a year ago.That will be all profit.
That is the reason i had been adding here.

[sportbilly1976] 08/7/2020 10:03

notice IG messing with the gold spread at the moment.

It's oscillating between 0.5-1.0 depending on the buy price, just ensuring the sell quote doesn't quite hit $1800

prob a fair few orders laid there and they're not wanting to trigger them just yet

[bag158s] 08/7/2020 09:48

AAZ keep dropping ?

[qazwsxedc69] 08/7/2020 09:47

Not sure how helpful this minute by minute share price and gold price watching is in what is a pretty illiquid and tightly held stock.

I've just bought some more at a bargain 1.33. Seems pretty obvious to me that someone - probably a LTH - is taking advantage of POG strength to unload for whatever reason. I paid my mortgage off by buying when we had a forced seller in the past. Reckon I have a chance of paying off the mortgage in my holiday home in the next year or two....