Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 13/5/2020 11:21

hope so MF, I bought more yesterday :-) LOL,,, could I have actually timed it right for once :-) LOL, we shall see, GLA Holders Cheers Wan :-)

[brasso3] 13/5/2020 11:20

DP

Gold looks like it ready to complete the current flag too.

[mad foetus] 13/5/2020 11:19

DDDD on the move again it seems

[donald pond] 13/5/2020 11:17

Anyone who sold out hoping to buy back at around the £1 mark is now faced with a conundrum. So much fear of deflation around, a dividend of 5% a year and growing isn't to be scoffed at. We could really do with our brokers getting us under the noses of some of the income funds out there.

[ilostthelot] 13/5/2020 11:04

Gold finger- I have no idea how much gold they will add when they release the Jorc in Q3.
It is conjecture.

I asked the question to this board. Jbravo replied he thought 2 years jorc would be extended. I agree. It is a guess!

What is your opinion of how much jorc compliant gold will be added?

[bo doodak] 13/5/2020 11:04

2sp,
Its the main black swan event here AFAICS. I didn't want to over-emphasise the risk as there is no real way to quantify it, we just have to be aware and manage exposure within our own comfort levels. Whatever happens, am quite sure mgt will always act in our best interests.

[mattjos] 13/5/2020 11:03

Results are always backward looking and a seal of authenticity on what's happened during the last financial year. Wrong to expect much by way of forward/future information other than statement of intent.

The company is doing as it said … maintaining steady-state production at/near maximum processing capability & avoiding any drop-off in production + it is doing so in a favourable gold price environment.

It is building cash reserves, rewarding investors with a dividend and working on exploration to more clearly define expansion opportunities across its acreage, with the specific intent of proving there are sufficient commercially-exploitable reserves to meet & justify the PSA requirements for the first of the 5-year extensions.
In parallel, & obviously very sensibly, it is casting its net wider to see if it can identify and tap into any other growth opportunities outwith Azerbaijan.

This all may seem 'boring' for those craving the sugar-rush of news inspired price rallies to trade the shares but, the company existence is not to offer traders such opportunities. The company management has the clear & often stated intention of growing to achieve mid-tier status & that is exactly what I expect them to do and achieve.

We want to be in the strongest possible position we can be as we enter the PSA extension window, namely:

- Strong financial position with cash in the bank / access to any necessary funding
- Strongly performing underlying business
- Definitive & unquestionable proof of commercially exploitable reserves
- Clear plans as to how we will continue to develop & exploit those reserves
- Strict adherence to all compliance terms of the PSA
- A happy and supportive employee & contractor base
- Strong and respected in-country reputation
- Other 'options' on the table to ensure we are not seen as wholly dependant on the Azerbaijan state for our future longevity & prosperity
- Open & receptive to any/all options for expansion in-country beyond that which we currently have

In short, we need to be seen as a strong, capable, reliable, successful, motivated company that has every possible intention (given the fair opportunities) of remaining in-country and continue to be a successful company that benefits all stakeholders far into the future. On that basis, the govt. of Azerbaijan will be very hard-pushed not to play ball - to do otherwise would be to open up a whole can of worms that would be predominantly negative for the govt, the country & for its relationship with all other companies operating under PSA's in-country (obviously the likes of BP & other oil majors in the Caspian).

AAZ's continued success in Azerbaijan is an obvious win-win for all parties concerned but, Reza & John ain't daft … always, always, always best to go into such situations sitting in the strongest possible position you can get into & for that strength to be well advertised and understood by the other side.

I don't think it's a difficult dynamic to understand & I do believe the company's genuine preference is to remain & to grow in Azerbaijan with what they understand.

I believe we can have confidence that there will be some exciting exploration updates coming out over the next 6 months & that each one will be to a very high standard of reporting.

Meantime, the dividend is a cracker & the gold price trend is clearly upwards during extraordinarily uncertain times in the world.

[bleepy] 13/5/2020 10:53

@ skeptic113 May '20 - 08:48 - 34938 of 34957
0 3 0
I think we need to also reflect the current global climate. Yes there’s nothing staggering there today, but doesn’t it also I still confidence about our investment going forward? As in, it wont keep you up at night worrying about the safety of your investment. I think the RNS sets the right, cautious tone and allays any fears about black swans. Why wouldn’t an investor be thrilled with the fundamentals here?


I for one am thrilled with the fundamentals here. As always, AAZ’s reports need reading many times over to digest and appreciate their full content and message.
Just a quick scan of the exploration data reveals prospective targets with exceptionally high gold grades. Two new discoveries already declared. Alongside the ZTEM survey identifying a targeted listed of 32 prospective areas within Gedabek acreage alone we have Satellite imagery being sifted through of all three estates, namely Gedabek, Gosha and Ordubad. The satellite imagery penetrates through deep vegetation enabling a fuller picture of the footprint of ore across and extending its estates.

Govt talks surrounding the psa seem protracted and only really got underway only after formation of a new progressive govt this year. In that vein the talks can be considered fairly recent. Consider also that the pandemic landed on their plate some weeks after formation their priorities changed no doubt. Talks will take a little longer given the circumstances and on better terms we hope.

Sensible to release lom news after conclusion of psa discussions/Azergold involvement perhaps. So, reading between the lines would expect govt talks to conclude by Q3/20.

Pog hovering around $1700/oz predicted to continue marching north through this year to all time highs.

So, Aaz have had their hands tied somewhat awaiting formation of new govt and a pandemic.

They are steering through the pandemic admirably and not only declaring a final divi but increasing it.

As always well done all at Aaz.

[crazycoops] 13/5/2020 10:33

That is a rank amateur article by Master Investor. Perhaps it reflects a short-term trading view but for anyone with a longer timeframe, it completely misses the point on several levels - no mention of the contractual terms of PSA extension, the huge explo potential, likely significant extensions to the existing mine, the opportunity to build a new mine. I could go on but I would be preaching to the converted. Thanks for posting it Matt, it probably explains quite a lot about the trading action today.

[gold finger 1] 13/5/2020 10:27

This master investor and a few others on here are right.
We do need the length of mine extending. But we know that is on going.
Its never done over night. You either believe what you have been told or don't.
The best for those that say in their opinion it will most likely only add one or two years is to sell up completely and move on.
Why would anyone continue to hold if you don't believe what the management say or the company anymore?

[2sporrans] 13/5/2020 10:20

Think Bo Doodak makes a v. good point.

Azerzi Gov't are not obliged to extend licence and maybe they won't.
Politicos self interest isn't same as national interest.

If there is a game of hardball and bluff going on....
Could AAZ look to 2023/4 and commence a max. cash pile strategm?
Like they could ramp up production by developing/extracting from
the most accessible new prospects + stockpiles; just heap leach them given
the plant is maxed out?
Not at all the way to go if [Gedabek] do get anther 5 years licence life.
But, hey the POG is so high that even $1,000/oz AISC offers ~$500/oz margin
if POG averages $1500/oz going forward.

Just a thought.

[jbe81] 13/5/2020 10:09

Anybody else have any thoughts on Odx, too me it looks like one of the few shares that can multi bag in short order

[goldrush] 13/5/2020 10:02

2sp

Agree he is really some master investor when he prefers Mali to Azerbajan....I have been to both and Azerbajan wins hands down in every way.

[gold finger 1] 13/5/2020 10:02

Our geological exploration programme made very good progress in the year. We announced two new significant copper and gold discoveries at Avshancli and Gilar. The mineral reserves and life of our existing mines are being extended and several promising new mineral occurrences are under investigation. We are proceeding at pace to classify our exploration targets and new discoveries as mineral resources and reserves with the aim of starting their commercial exploitation as soon as possible.

SO is it me just reading this wrong?
Two new SIGNIFICANT copper and gold discoveries.
Existing mines are being EXTENDED.
Several promising NEW mineral occurrences are under investigation.
With the aim of starting their commercial exploitation as soon as poss.

We get ilosthelot saying he reads this between the lines just adding one or maybe two years? lol.

Also why do people always try to find a negative in a positive. Like this.

"It is the Company's intention to produce new JORC resource and reserves statements for its existing mines during the course of 2020, which is likely [why the "likely"? -TS] to further extend the mine life [beyond the min. declared 2024]."
Why likely. Well its likely until the jorc is out.
Work on the JORC is taking time, but they do. They are not cheap to do, There is still 4 years lom left, so i am happy to wait and get one good update in Q3, then another in two years when this exploration phase is complete.

[ilostthelot] 13/5/2020 10:00

We are valued at what roughly 5 years mined profits after tax.

So yes massive undervaluation if they have the gold, (another 5 or 6 years
jorc) which I think they do ,but fair valuation if they don't have.


I'll shut up now as I've made my point and I don't want to be too disruptive to a great board.

[mad foetus] 13/5/2020 09:59

The board have looked at lots of overseas options and said that if there was no news on that front it was a positive because it means what they already have is better than what they are being offeredI honestly believe this period ends suddenly and very well for us. It's just taking ages!

[wanobi] 13/5/2020 09:58

thanx Rb,,, my last trading batch I bought at 119p,,, but I shall not buy more unless we take a big dip to below 100p,,, which might happen if cv19 second wave comes along and the world freaks out again,,, who knows,,,, but below 100p I shall buy more with my AVCT gains :-) we shall see, meantime, for me,,, I shall chill :-) GLA Cheers Wan :-)

[mad foetus] 13/5/2020 09:55

EML completing cup and handle atm

[riggerbeautz] 13/5/2020 09:53

Tip writer favours Hum over AAZ, might get a few more sellers out. To be fair a lot will depend short term on how Bill projects himself next week, as I don’t see any other driver until whatever AGM snippets come through.

So the next few days may leave a few jumpy, a few pondering and a few sat on hands, unless it nosedives sub £1 again when bargain hunters will appear. After Bill there’s a few weeks until the AGM so it could really unsettle a few nerves if the wider markets drop big time. All eyes on Bill! Think he’ll talk it up best he can but I don’t see much uplift myself until AGM newsflow.

So I’m just going to meander around looking for others elsewhere, unless it really tanks.

[wanobi] 13/5/2020 09:48

AAZ - and there was I thinking we might get to buy below 100p today,,,, doesn't look like it to me, but the day is yet young :-) LOL GLA Holders Cheers Wan :-)

[klosters65] 13/5/2020 09:46

It would be a master move for AAZ to become involved in a mine in another jurisdiction for which it can comfortably afford and then there would be no time pressure on negotiating with the Azeri government

[2sporrans] 13/5/2020 09:43

"The short-lived spike in the shares to 160p"
It has eluded the self titled Master investor that the spike reached 177p.

[jbravo2] 13/5/2020 09:43

Absolutely supercity.
We’re entering another period with the company being massively undervalued. I mean like more than the average undervaluation :D
We have had this opportunity a few times and every time it’s been like that there have been lots of worried investors. It’s an opportunity for those able to see past the noise. Same as last time, some will, some will simply state they wish they had.