Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 25/9/2018 18:48

I am truly in awe of the way this company has respected and treated its shareholders as its battled its way to profit over the last 15 years!! It really is a fantastic example to other public companies,,, cheers all Wan

[homebrewruss] 25/9/2018 18:19

Jbravo, thanks, thought that might be the case.. it's just they have optimised almost everything else 😀

I think I read elsewhere that some miners use excess heat from diesel generators to heat the pads but obviously that's less of an option for AAZ these days!

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 18:19

I can second jbravo's comments with regards Reza Vaziri.

& add that on three occasions he has lent the company his own money and forgone salary in order to avoid equity dilution.
There was one occasion back in 2009/10 at the global market lows when he issued some small amount of equity to some sub-contractors, in lieu of cash payment for part of plant expansion. Otherwise, with the exception of equity for Stephen Westhead, John Monhemius, Farhang Hedjazi & Bill Morgan he has fiercely avoided equity dilution.

& we should be very appreciate of that because that is why the dividend is such a good rate per share.

I am fairly sure that John Sunnunu will row along with Reza .. they both wanted to buy more shares in the company but, the Nomad advised their combined holdings may be construed as a concert-party they have refrained from doing so.

The low price has been an irritant, particularly for Reza, as he knows the true value of the shares and was frustrated that the market did not see this. As Bill said in his interview, they have been advised that a dividend payment would likely be the primary catalyst for the market to value the shares more realistically & so that is exactly what the BOD have done.

Today we close at £76m (US$100m) market cap .. a good rise but, still only reflective of the value of plant & equipment and the gold in the tailings pond!
This is still nowhere near sensible value for 'the rest' of the company. This year and next the dividend payment will be circa 15c / share.

114,317,024 shares * 15c = $17.145m in dividends + $3m net cash in the bank today.

Pay $100m to buy the company today and you get back $20m in under 2 years.

So for an effective $80m you get the whole company .. it's still too cheap and it's far too early to consider selling.

First rule in sales transaction, for the seller, is to know accurately the value of what you are selling. Else, how the hell do you know what to ask for, unless you are distressed in same way.
The company is far from distressed and so does not have to sell. Neither does it yet know the true worth of what's in the ground under its own feet.

BUT, It is going to have a much, much clearer understanding of its true value after 3 years of intensive exploration. First year nearly done.

The IPO docs have given us all an early 'heads-up' as to what the true worth of the company is. That valuation methodology, using todays metals prices and exchange rates, is still anything from 5 to 10 times todays market cap of the company.

Understanding that the market is impatient and many unlikely to remain committed investors for the next 2-3 years, the company is now offering a dividend to do just that .. sit, wait, collect the dividend and give the company this 3 year window of exploration to really get to grips with what they have and report on it to JORC standards. Resource availability, extraction & processing capacity, human resources, sales channels etc. these are all in place to organically fund this 3 year window .. in fact we will grow as a company throughout this period.

It really should not be a difficult decision for anyone here & neither for any new investors who take the time to read this thread fro the start.

[bo doodak] 25/9/2018 18:01

Thanks JB for the insights, much appreciated. Its a shame that honour seems to have become an outdated concept in the west.

For me, an unwillingness to simply issue shares and dilute shareholders as and when difficulties arose is unusual, together with the director loan (especially reducing the rate to 7%, as he didn't have to) is tangible demonstration of his intent and is what gives me confidence.

I am hoping that this limited free float, due to Reza, will be instrumental in accentuating the share price rises as we go forward now.

As an aside, I will miss reading Yasx's thoughtful contributions on the other thread now that he has apparently sold. It was most instructive to be able to read and consider both threads and compare differing perspectives.

Bo

[lefrene] 25/9/2018 17:49

As an aside, do many here hold AAZ as a defence against currency inflation? It only comes to mind as I have just seen a cottage that I sold for 6 times average income in July 1988 (just before the bust), has just gone on the market for over 17 times average income! (It hasn't been extended or anything). OK low interest rates explain part of it, but we seem to be in a huge credit bubble that we might have to print our way out of.

[jbravo2] 25/9/2018 17:27

@homebrewruss

Heating a leach pad isn’t practical. They are enormous and exposed to the elements. Far too big to even cover.

The plant is heated to keep it from freezing but I’m afraid you just can’t have it heated to much beyond that as it would be vastly uneconomical.
Just to have the plants running through the winter is enough.

Seasonality is here to stay I’m afraid.

[jbravo2] 25/9/2018 17:24

I’ve known Reza quite a while now. I’ve never had him break a promise to me.
He has promised me that he’d never leave his shareholders in the lurch. I believe him to be a man of his word, a man of honour.
He hasn’t ever given me a definitive answer to whether he wants to work for another 20 minutes or 20 years.
He is young enough to do another 20 years if so minded.
I’m happy to keep myself tied to his fortune and trust that he looks after us all.

I’m aware of what some might think this promise off an AIM CEO is worth. All I can say is history suggests my judgement is correct so far. Not all CEOs have been created equal!

[homebrewruss] 25/9/2018 17:20

A question for those with more technical knowledge..
Does anyone have any thoughts on how the company could mitigate any issues around seasonality?

Last winter was pretty mild but we have had lower production in previous years due to harsher winters which have shown in Q1 figures. Could they perhaps build more heap leach pads for use during summer months or heat the leach pads in winter, or some other solution? I may be showing some technical ignorance on this so sorry if so?

[bo doodak] 25/9/2018 17:10

My main worry right now is possibility markets are topping out. I feel its still too early but it surely can't be any later than another year or so now. Recession can't be far ahead now.

Do you have any info on how Reza sees his future that you would be happy to share?

Bo

[jbravo2] 25/9/2018 17:02

Absolutely Bo. Something you should continue to do.
As you can tell I’ve thought about this point previously too. Having spoken to John Sununu about it I don’t expect to see his shares for sale.
No guarantee of course but very reassured

[bo doodak] 25/9/2018 16:56

Thanks JB,

That's reassuring to hear, and I suppose is what one might expect from the well off, inter-generational wealth planning

As you can see, I'm trying hard to think of negatives!

Bo

[jbravo2] 25/9/2018 16:51

Bo,
His sons (one of whom is already a US governor, the other an ex-senator) visited the mine this year and were very impressed.
They impressed upon their dad that they would rather he held onto his shares!
I don’t think you’ll see him selling any, ever.

[bo doodak] 25/9/2018 16:43

Question for the regulars if I may.

Given the great progress starting to gain recognition and traction, are there any views on if, or at what point or level, Sununu might decide to lighten his holdings as the share price increases (he is 78 after all).

Bo

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 16:31

the auction seller now only appears to be dribbling in tiny amounts at higher & higher prices in the auctions

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 16:29

last 40p breakout at the end of 2010 and the price simply went from 40p to 80p in 7 straight trading sessions. That was off the back a Gedabek JORC.

This time around we've just had a fresh Gedabek JORC, we are producing more than twice as much Gold now as we were then, we're net cash positive & we are now paying a Dividend and waiting on the blowout Q3 figures and the Gadir JORC.

I believe the small dip on Friday was simply a very short lived flag on the pole

[celeritas] 25/9/2018 16:26

Not AAZ but worth a listen.

[return_of_the_apeman] 25/9/2018 15:53

Buying is still relentless, the volume of buys is 3 times that of sells today

[bleepy] 25/9/2018 15:03

and with headlines like these from the broker...

“Anglo Asian declares maiden dividend which could “nearly double next year” says broker”

Link in header above.

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 14:48

I'm still a buyer and taken more today

[lefrene] 25/9/2018 14:40

"Stupid cheap" below 120p, where else do you get a high divi, excellent growth prospects, no debt, and a stellar management that has brought the company through a fire storm? Who the heck was selling this in large slugs at 44p? why? I should also add, a product that has never ever gone out of fashion, and given the current dodgy state of fiat currencies, a product that represents a safe haven.

[goldrush] 25/9/2018 14:38

Mattjos

....and only 13 trading days to go to Q3 Production Results !!

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 14:34

still stupid cheap below 80p .. everyone knows it and everyone hoping for a fall back but, there are now too many people recognising the value & hovering on this company for it to fall back, imo.

[bagi58s] 25/9/2018 14:16

When is the Q4 results?

[mattjos] 25/9/2018 14:08

Yup, Q4 results going to be cracking henwii