Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[return_of_the_apeman] 23/9/2018 10:53

Not sure if this has been posted


hXXp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/10557/mining-capital-s-alastair-ford-on-the-outlook-for-gold-and-rare-earths-10557.html

(Replace XX with tt)

AAZ reviewed from 5:20 onwards

Thanks for updating the header Matt, apologies didn't know it was business and not pleasure and was not intended in anyway to be pushy

[homebrewruss] 23/9/2018 10:16

To me the dividend level is a game changer.

If the price were to ever drop back into the 50s from here you would have a dividend yield of close to 10% and then over 10% for years to come so any drop in price and potential for capital loss rapidly made back in dividends. This makes buying at these levels a 'no brainer' for me.

Plus of course the other benefits of gold as a hedge and all the other news and potential I feel are here

[goldrush] 23/9/2018 09:34

One of the highlights from the week :

Post 15,719 and John Meyer of share price Angel courtesy of homebrewruss

“at some point we should be over £1 on these”

Mattjos summed this up in Post 15,727 :

“I do find it odd that John Meyer should advise in his interview that we will see £1+ on the share price yet, SPAngel remain at 84p price target .. for now.
Therefore fairly sure the Q3 update will cause them to revise target upward shortly.”

That’s why in my opinion we are continuing into another exciting period for AAZ....and for John to say what he did, and really put forward his confidence in the whole management team for all to hear. IMHO

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 22:05

Thanks Friendzarin, appreciate you saying that.

Interim Dividend is $3.4m or £2.6m.

We can rule out the BOD from using their dividend to buy more shares in the company .. certainly John Sununu & Reza Vaziri will not do so & Limelight have never done anything other remain a passive investor.

So, 45% of that £2.6m will go out to as cash and not find its way back here.

That leaves 55% * £2.6m = £1.43m going to predominantly Private Investors (at this stage).

If only 20% of that is used by savvy PI's to acquire more 'free' stock in the company, that is £286,000 which will be deployed to buy more shares.
At an 80p buy price, that is circa 358,000 shares which will be taken out of the free-float as PI's lock them up and await the balancing FY18 dividend and then the anticipated two dividends from 2019.
If 50% of that was deployed in a PI buying spree, at 80p, that would be 894,000 shares taken out of the free-float.

The company has not offered a scrip dividend option .. more evidence that Reza still believes the equity is undervalued & therefore unwilling to see any more equity issued.

I can only see continued buying pressure on the stock in the run up to the dividend record date, the Q3 results & then the dividend payment date & then the Gadir JORC.
Looking forward to the rising price trend over the next 3 months and, finally, some Holdings Statements being declared.

[friendzarin] 22/9/2018 20:06

Great work on the headers Matt.. nice to see you come home enthused after your holiday..(sic)..in Poland. Is that the same newspaper article JB2 intends to pin up in his loo ?

On a serious note you are the continuing heartbeat of this board and I’ve only been looking in here for two years but your constant knowledgeable and perceptive analysis has undoubtedly influenced me in becoming a seriously committed investor here. Thank you.

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 19:30

thanx mattjos, found it, cheers Wan

Alan Oscroft | Wednesday, 19th September, 2018 AAZ "if you’re after a precious metals growth prospect, I think there are worse choices out there."



cheers Wan

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 19:12

From Motley Fool, 19th Sept:

"Dividend

One big milestone in a growth stock’s coming of age is the payment of its first dividend. That’s what’s just happened at AIM-listed Anglo Asian Mining (LSE: AAZ) as the gold, copper and silver producer released first-half results.

The company, delving for those metals in Azerbaijan, revealed gold production of 33,255 ounces and silver of 84,785 ounces, together with 587 tonnes of copper. Full-year production guidance remains unchanged.

Thanks to higher production and better selling prices, Anglo Asian reported a revenue increase to $40m, from $29.8m at the halfway stage last year, and turned 2017’s first-half pre-tax loss of $1.3m into a profit of $8.1m. Free cash flow more than doubled from $7.4m to $16.4m, and net debt was slashed from $18.1m to just $2.9m.

Passing my test?

Nice profit and a maiden dividend: that satisfies one of my main requirements for a speculative growth stock, especially an oil or mining prospect. The share price is up 5% on the day to around 57p, which takes it firmly out of penny share territory, and the price rises of the past couple of years push the market cap up to a respectable £65m.

A lack of forecasts makes valuation a little tricky, and there are certainly risks associated with operating solely in Azerbaijan. But if you’re after a precious metals growth prospect, I think there are worse choices out there."

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 19:01

AAOG - pad complete ready for spudding 103C,,,

please see Pro_S2009's excellent thread....



for piccy's............

binary bet, punt for me,,,, cumon AAOG.

Cheers Wan

[mad foetus] 22/9/2018 17:20

Agreed Mattjos and in a way I was hoping you gave an explanation as I wasn't there at the time. I was only making a pure "investor psychology" point that 45 to 62 in a week may seem steep and in need of a retrace, but really, AAZ managed 20 to 80 before with only a little pause in the middle. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a period of consolidation around 80p, and then again around the £1 level, but the updated JIRC and reality if divi payments (and reinvestment) should put paid to that

[celeritas] 22/9/2018 16:33

Suarez, Matt gives an excellent explanation.

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 15:18

Mattjos - 20 Sep 2018 - 08:07:02 - 15615 of 15750 Tipped on motley fool

Please can you post link, here or on your thread, most appreciated, thanks Wan

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 15:07

cheers CC, hope you're right,,,,, thanx Wan

[crazycoops] 22/9/2018 14:55

wan, Your fund manager friend is correct regarding the larger, mainstream funds. However, there are many boutique funds, small/micro-cap or mining specialist funds, family offices, discretionary brokers and high net worth individuals. From this pool, there will be several casting an eye over AAZ at the moment. Accepting that AAZ will likely always be discounted for some perceived political risk (although frankly, the UK has a lot of political risk at the moment), it has a high probability of outperforming many benchmark indices on both a growth and income measure. As such, it has now become too difficult to ignore and I expect several of the above mentioned pool of "institutional investors" will be taking a position between now and 12 October. My view only.

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 14:50

when you look at the share price over the past 15 years it seems like utter madness that after all the work AAZ has put in,,,, to get into profit, to increase mine life, etc etc the share price today is still below the IPO price where all that was known was what might be in the ground!!!! Either the IPO price was complete tosh or today AAZ is way undervalued.. I don't understand this,,, is the market for AAZ truly this irrational!!!? time will tell, cheers Wan

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 14:40

mf ... you need to consider the chart in conjunction with the events at the company.
gold was coming off a an all-time high & at the same time, the company began to experience rising % of Copper in its ore as they went deeper into the Gedabek ore body. Processing costs started to escalate rapidly due to Copper's affinity for Cyanide reducing the ability of the Agitation plant to cost-effectively remove the gold.
In parallel, we also had Bashirov now selling down his big shareholding over a protracted period due to his personal troubles & the company had to borrow heavily to buy & install the necessary Flotation plant.
The Bid for the stock crumbled and so too did the price.

A unique and unforeseen set of negative circumstances drove us back all the way to fill the November 2008 Acceleration Gap on the chart.

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 14:37

£1 soonish, I hope,,, fingers crossed :-)

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


Cheers Wan

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 14:25

As far as all this talk of the dividend is concerned, need to clarify Calendar & Financial Years.
Also, I do not believe that John Meyer would have indicated, in the interview, the dividend in Financial Year 2019 could be twice as much as the dividend for the entirety of Financial Year 2018 unless he had first had conversations on the subject with the company directors.

Keep it simple and work on a total dividend of 5c for Financial Year 2018 & 10c for Financial Year 2019. That equates to a total dividend of 15c between now and June 2020.

At todays exchange rate of GBPUSD: 1.30 that would be circa 11.5p for every share you hold.
Shares purchased for 63p between now and 12th October, will yield circa 18% income over the next 21 months + investors will have a ticket to ride the capital appreciation of the shares.
I am firmly of the opinion that the shares will absolutely grow in value from 63p to at the very least 80p (likely far more).

so a 63p share will grow to 80p, which is a 17p increase in value (27%) + receive 11.5p income ... a total of 28.5p (45%) over 21 months.

When folk do the maths for themselves, any shares below 80p buy price are going to be like rocking-horse excrement on this information alone, let alone a new JORC for Gadir & exploration results.

[mad foetus] 22/9/2018 14:03

What I take from that chart Mattjos is the rise from 20p to 70p happened very quickly (though so did the retrace, bah!). But for those thinking 45 to 62 has happened very quickly, if the same happened now there wouldn't be much pause on the way to 155/160.

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 13:23

Whilst most will obviously be fixated on the 80p level day to day, I prefer to look at it on a Weekly timeframe & in that regard, the breakout level is quite a lot lower:



Last week was Second highest traded volume in the history of the company.
The First & Third highest volume weeks were in 2006 & 2007 when the price was firmly entrenched in a downtrend.
Fourth highest volume week was in 2015 when Bashirov holdings were declared as zero & that was about the time of the uptrend starting.

The final point I'd like to make about this chart is that 'technically' the Double-Bottom reversal pattern is not formally confirmed until the highs of the intermediate peak are exceeded .. only then will the pattern be 'technically' validated &, as far as I am concerned, that event will bring in the highest weekly volume ever. Anyone who studies TA will know the price is then heading to at least the £1.50 level.

[mattjos] 22/9/2018 13:09

H1 18 resulted in the following average / day production:

Au: 183.7oz
Ag: 468.4oz
Cu: 3.2t

Annualising those H1 averages gives FY 18 targets of:

Au: 67,061oz
Ag: 170,975oz
Cu: 1,184t

Clearly Q's 3 & 4 are going to be much better with the new crusher enabling parallel running of Ag & Fl for the first time.

Since start 2013, if you identify the best quarter production for each metal and put those together, you get a theoretical FY maximum of:

Au: 79,031oz
Ag: 186,313oz
Cu: 2,450t

So, we do now have the productive capacity to exceed the theoretical best ever FY figures. Assuming there is no immediate additional plant expansion, just what is possible is now down to ore grade, optimised ore blending, plant utilisation & optimisation.

At same time, the company clearly has a programme in hand aimed at optimising as many of the overall processes as they can eg. water recycling, diesel filtration, new haul roads etc.

I firmly believe there is plenty more to come in terms of optimising the overall financial metrics of the business. If there is a 3-6 month Optimisation of Operations programme in parallel with the exploration programme, it will further reduce the AISC and show what is possible when we use the exploration results to determine how and where the next expansion phase is done.

Obviously one of the biggest single levers on the whole model is grade of incoming ore ... we've had continual and repeated statements that grades are higher at depth. Now they have confirmed that Gadir is contiguous with Gedabek, the Gadir entry point presents the opportunity to get at a larger part of the overall ore body than had we only continued with open pit mining.

This is really now developing into a cracking company. Strong growth coming through, profits and cash-flow building & still so much more to go at. Superb management team at the helm & it is readily apparent they are enjoying themselves.

Much more to come here in the short, medium & long-term

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 13:02

wow, thanx guys, would never have thought of those,,

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cheers Wan

[puntogt] 22/9/2018 12:58

Would a main market listing help AAZ? It is now a debt free and dividend paying. Does aim put some people / institutions off? Would a Canadian or US listing help like Centamin have ?

[cflather2000] 22/9/2018 12:32

Agree with stockopedia. Have found it very useful for reviewing individual stocks or making stock screens

[king suarez] 22/9/2018 12:24

Nice bounce in the copper price recently too, even if gold seems stuck at these levels for now...