Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[puntogt] 22/9/2018 12:58

Would a main market listing help AAZ? It is now a debt free and dividend paying. Does aim put some people / institutions off? Would a Canadian or US listing help like Centamin have ?

[cflather2000] 22/9/2018 12:32

Agree with stockopedia. Have found it very useful for reviewing individual stocks or making stock screens

[king suarez] 22/9/2018 12:24

Nice bounce in the copper price recently too, even if gold seems stuck at these levels for now...

[jbravo2] 22/9/2018 12:20

I think it's largely down to a few small variables such as the grade they're putting through the plants. I don't think your 87kgeo or goldrush's 95kgeo are unreasonable for 2019

Small changes in plant efficiency, in ore grade, in the winter we have etc etc can all easily account for 10% in production.
To some degree we just won't be able to predict without knowing what grades are expected to be put through the plant in those 12 months.
Then of course there's the metal price in market and of course as I posted a few days ago there could also be the fact we're getting a better deal on the concentrate.

All very exciting though cos everything is looking to improve.

[goldrush] 22/9/2018 12:14

KS

I saw JB2’s good post....my thinking is.... Stephen said 80k in interview....we know they want to do better than that....they also would not keep pronouncing how more efficient they are going to be without delivering.....say we give them the benefit of the doubt as we now know that they REALLY want to get the share price up and get to their stated mid tier producer goal....so say they end up at the higher stated range of 84k for 2018. Then a full year would give you 89/90k.

They probably need some more Capex than in your calculation, another Crusher etc....so NET Free Cash flow will be a bit higher but they could end up with getting another 6k increased production from this Capex for part of the Year with the full benefits in 2020 and now they are over 100k in production throughput......

And that is before any other new mines.Obviously increased Capex which has to be managed but what a growth story....

[crazycoops] 22/9/2018 11:59

Stockopedia or Sharepad for investing (not trading). I use the former.

[king suarez] 22/9/2018 11:48

Goldrush,

That would be tremendous, but JB2 indicated (post 15667) AAZ were near maximum throuput with the current plant, so unsure if that kind of increase is possible as things stand?

Indeed, more will be revealed with the Q3 production update.

[goldrush] 22/9/2018 11:43

KS

Perhaps possible that the GEO’s are 95/100k for 2019 ? We will be finding out in 15 trading days our performance from using the second crusher etc....

g

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 11:01

several things I've discovered/confirmed this week about the ADFVN platform,,, it's a great tool when you consider it's FREE at this level... however, I'm not sure I will upgrade to the paid service as it does have a lot of shortcomings!!

Anyone out there who has bought into decent kit/software for investing please let me have your suggestions, thanks..

I found; Bloomberg Terminal is the most expensive among financial data providers, costing $24,000 per year. For customers with two or more subscriptions Bloomberg charges $20,000 per year. By comparison, a fully loaded version of Eikon costs $1,800 per month, with a bare bones version costing a mere $300 per month.

Too expensive for me!!!

Are there others?

Cheers
Wan

[wanobi] 22/9/2018 10:54

thanx donnatella, your kind words are very much appreciated, I can learn a lot from others and their questions,,, but, I tend to remember answers to my questions for much longer, I must have a strange brain or something :-) anyhow, now that I've found myself in 'threadland' I'm thinking I'll keep it going for a while and see how things progress :-)

as for my timing, what can I say, pure fluke, luck etc etc...

I suppose the only thing I've really got right so far was to jump on this opportunity, read as much as I could as fast as I could, ask a few questions(lol) and most importantly take the plunge and buy the shares!!!

I too am here for the long term now, which is great (I hope, fingers crossed and all that!), as like you and the other LTH's I believe it's worth seeing if AAZ can prove up those old Russian reserves and more!!! If they can, then surely the II's will start buying in to this... I hope some smaller funds take some soon as that would put AAZ on the radar for other II's I hope.

good luck to us both, have a great weekend, cheers Wan

[king suarez] 22/9/2018 10:53

@Celeritas

Where are you getting the forecast of FCF being double (or near double) next year? Isn't the comment from share price Angel/Proactive investors just referring to the fact that we are getting one 3 cent (interim) divided for 2018, but 2 x dividends for 2019 (interim and final)?

I expect increased production for H2 to something like 43.5k geo oz in order to hit the FY target, countered by an average gold price lower by c$100 oz. An extra $1m or so FCF due to the lack of interest expense and a little interest income from cash at bank.

In H1 18 AAZ produced 37.5k geo oz and recorded $25m operating CF and $16m FCF at an average gold sales price of $1,319. So operating cashflow at a margin of c$667 per geo oz. So FY 2018 likely to be in line with H1 2018 at these gold prices, I think.

For 2019 say we are now producing at 87k geo oz for the whole year, with the 2nd crusher. The margin will likely be around $550 per geo oz at $1,200 oz gold price = $48m operating cashflow. Finance costs were $1m in H1 18. We won't have those anymore so add $2m to the 2019 forecast and call it $50m operating CF (corp tax will be a bit higher, but there will be some interest income from cash in bank).

On average over the last couple of years AAZ seem to spend c$10m p/a on Capex and we know $6m is earmarked for the exploration budget, so that should leave FCF of c$34m. $34m x 0.25 = $8.5m. $8.5m with 114m shares in issue = 7.4 cents per share?

Interesting to note every $100 increase in the price of gold adds c$8.7m revenue or $5.9m FCF (after tax), which could add another 1.3 cents per share to the annual dividend and would put AAZ on a yield just over 10% at the current share price Obviously, things could look even better if Capex is lower than I have forecast and/or cost of production continues to fall due to the efficiencies made an economies of scale through raising production levels.

[wimbled] 22/9/2018 10:15

SK1974, you have to look back almost 8 years to determine resistance levels above 40p.

Historically 40p was a strong support / resistance level and AAZ breaking through this range last week should set up continued upward momentum.

However, there appears to be minor resistance between 55p to 65p found when gold pullback from its highs in 2011.

Although, I would not pay too much attention to 60p level because current prices will be short term and the historic 60p resistance level was a support following falling gold prices.

Remember back then, AAZ where only heap leaching and now ($50M investment later) we are able to refine poly metals from the local geology.

Keep Holding. Personally I will be adding if the offer price dropped into the 50s.

[donnatella] 22/9/2018 10:05

Hello Wanabi, I was going to post a 'congratulations' during the week but didn't want to disturb your self imposed week of silence!! As another poster said earlier, your timing, as far as AAZ is concerned, has been faultless. Well done.
I am of the same opionion as most of the other posters on the Mattjos thread, in that AAZ still has a long way to run and I am more than happy to sit and watch my (very small) pot of money grow.
I would add here that I enjoy reading your thread. Considering the position you are in now from when you set this thread up, it would appear that asking too many questions has really paid off so fair play to you, you have done exceptionally well.

Have a great weekend.

[mr roper] 22/9/2018 09:55

That was a helluva week but weirdly it feels like we're only at the start of the journey

[jeanesy] 22/9/2018 09:22

I wonder if the mail on sunday will make a comment about their inspired MIDAS tip tomorrow?

[sharekitchen1974] 22/9/2018 08:50

Any thoughts about next level of resistance and support levels? 80p resistance -55p Support?

[mattjos] 21/9/2018 23:47

:-) .. why would you do any other than buy this below 80p?

[celeritas] 21/9/2018 23:40

2019 dividend could hit 10 cents.
Just wow!!

[wanobi] 21/9/2018 23:01

cheers Tj, never been to a Costco, so can't track it down... :-(

sleep well on it,,,, cheers Wan

[thejonah] 21/9/2018 22:50

It was a wine from Costco with a Kirkland label. Getting it again at just under a tenner!

[mattjos] 21/9/2018 21:21

7m volume week & still no Holdings declarations for last 3 years? Roll on divi record date & let's see who's really holding what.

[wanobi] 21/9/2018 21:07

thanx KS, could well be on both counts, I expect to meet up with him face to face in Nov and will discuss further then!!! cheers Wan

[king suarez] 21/9/2018 21:01

I think your city friend is simply alluding to the fact that a lot of fund managers have constraints about the size of company (and location) they can buy shares in?

Terms will be in the prospectus of the funds when they are first established.

Income funds probably look for larger sized companies with a longer history of paying dividends...

About the jurisdiction - probably just ignorance about the companies relationship with the Azer government?

[wanobi] 21/9/2018 21:00

yasX, very best wishes to you, good luck, no one ever got poor taking profits and all that... cheers Wan

[wanobi] 21/9/2018 20:53

from an earlier post.......

"Agree, I can see £1+,,,, however, they are in a bit of no-man’s land in terms of market cap - £70m too small for most institutions to buy. Far too small for most income funds and not exactly a secure form of income given the jurisdiction."

Please, all, your thoughts on this comment are most welcome....

?

cheers Wan