Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bleepy] 17/5/2019 11:42

“Other on-going geological work has identified further copper and gold mineralisation beneath, and extending from, the Gedabek open pit that has the potential to further increase its life of mine.”

Potential to further increase life of mine, does this infer jorc applied ratings to these areas.
Similarly to the recently announced new discovery within Gosha at the Asrikchay target area, Ordubad and other discoveries as they are identified.

Surely we must be looking at a declared +10yr lom minimum considering the extensive exploration programme and major new targets identified for follow up.

AAZ must be well aware of present broker limitations, part of their overall strategy no doubt as they progress toward a wider audience.

[brasso3] 17/5/2019 11:38

The gold is certainly in the ground.

The BoD are doing what is best for long term holders.

[mad foetus] 17/5/2019 11:21

From a brokers point of view AAZ are a terrible client as they never issue shares. It is the placing, where the broker charges 1-2% and gets to allow favourite clients in on the cheap, that is where the money is made. So while I think SPA are poor and AAZ have outgrown them, you have to be careful what you wish for

[mattjos] 17/5/2019 11:08

i would not worry about it sportbilly.
SPA Forecasts have been & continue to be way, way, way behind the curve for AAZ.

The covering analyst (Sergey Raevskiy) is extremely conservative.

SPA have been behind the curve here since 2013 … now 6 years on and they are still behind the curve in their analysis.

I and many others here, have had contact with John Meyer on many occasions & repeatedly advised how and why they are wrong but, it has never really had any influence/impact.

This company just gets on with it. They don't share strategy with SPA &, thankfully, they are not part of the cliquey London spiv-set.

[sportbilly1976] 17/5/2019 11:02

figure from the SPA note - divi cost

2018 $3.4mln, 3019 $8.0mln and 2020 $6.9mln

with 114.39mln shares in issue this is presupposing a payout of 7cents in 2019 (4c final just confirmed and 3c interim later this year). Just 6 cents in 2020

I'm confused with their numbers - forecasts are optimistic in terms of how they word the note, yet the EBIT they have reducing significantly from $26.8mln this year to $11.8 next (despite revenues up $90.4mln to $95.4)

[mattjos] 17/5/2019 10:55

"Anglo Asian Mining is an AIM listed precious and base metals producer running flagship Gedabek operations in western Azerbaijan including three producing mines and processing facilities. The Company targets 82-86koz GEOs in 2019 with low cost operations providing capital for organic growth opportunities within the highly prospective +1,000km2 land package, attractive targets outside Azerbaijan as well as 25% of FCF dividend programme.

I do not believe House Broker will state; …."attractive targets outside Azerbaijan..." without prior dialogue with company management.

[mattjos] 17/5/2019 10:48

proper broker note out from SPA today

[wanobi] 17/5/2019 10:48

thanx,,, fair enough Brasso, I just wanted to make my point in terms of the undervaluation in SP,,, if mine life was 10-15 years right now we'd be over 200p I believe :-) however, if it's best to get there slowly in terms of the PSA that's fine, I understand the reasoning :-) cheers Wan

[mattjos] 17/5/2019 10:45

jb … that statement in the results more than hints at the company having a few other options open to them now. Tethyan gold belt covers a large area and other countries.
We're surely now gaining a reputation as a successful regional poly-metallic gold miner with a growing cash pile. Am quite sure Reza will have opportunities crossing his desk with increasing frequency.

[mr roper] 17/5/2019 10:40

That would be very nice indeed

[mad foetus] 17/5/2019 10:36

Biggest risk now is people selling in search of a thrill. In 12 months this has gone from 40p to £1 and there have been long stretches of nothing doing. I expect this time next year share price will have performed in the same way and be £2.50.

[mr roper] 17/5/2019 10:32

Hopefully this weekend

[brasso3] 17/5/2019 10:28

Wanobi

Matt has explained previously why AAZ have perhaps deliberately not focused on increasing reserves as this impacts them in a negative way for the PSA. Better to concentrate on production and just modestly increase the booked reserves in the short term. Eventually the reserves will increase at a steep rate and once they have 2m - 4m ounces 200p will look cheap.

[sportbilly1976] 17/5/2019 10:24

anyone seen any coverage in the press on the results?

[cinoib] 17/5/2019 10:20

I see 3 of the last 4 sells on + are actually buys if you look at the price. pog stagnant just now.

[callmebwana] 17/5/2019 10:12

Muddy, I wish you well with your holding in HUR. I stopped investing in Oil Co's a while back.

KS, you could be very right in thinking the psychology of investors. Not all read these BB's either.

Wan, you keep a close hold of your AAZ shares and let the trades and weak holders do what they want.I don't think the BOD would want to sell any now to any II's. With all the JORC figures to hike the share price up. If II's want the shares they will have to buy them in the open market. There were two 100K buys yesterday, I wonder if that was an II. I am quite confident now that if one of the directors wants to sell then they would sell them to an II rather then sell in the open market. All to look forward to here in AAZ.
Have a good day all.
ATB.

[brasso3] 17/5/2019 10:04

Really surprised this is still below 100p. Had a nibble at some more in my SIPP.

Buy today and get a 5% dividend (over 7 months) and 7.5% over 13 months.

[bumpa33] 17/5/2019 09:54

IOF book closes today i'm told, i think there could be a bounce there once this is out of the way (and the mm's have initially smacked it down to the pp), particularly if shorts/forward sold have to close with under allotment in the placing, plus those who don't understand the implications of the rights attached to shares for the open offer portion. I'm not a big fan of the company historically, going way back, but an interesting situation.

[wanobi] 17/5/2019 09:51

HUR chart looking great, ready to breakout and golden cross coming soon :-) nice one, well done chaps :-) Cheers Wan


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[king suarez] 17/5/2019 09:46

I would imagine re: selling the day after a recent price spike - people are not able to trade with hindsight.

They see they price go up and think should they cash in now? or is it going higher? At the end of the day they see it hasn't gone up any further and may even have dropped a little from the peak. So the next day, when they see there is little/no buying volume they decide they must sell now in case it drops further and they lose the chance of realising any gains (in the short term), albeit lesser gains than they could have had.

That would be my psychology on it anyway.

[wanobi] 17/5/2019 09:45

AAZ for me now undervalued for 1 main reason and that's mine life, its too short, get it up to 10-15 years with the coming exploration and then in my humble but honest opinion the II's will get interested :-) LOL but then what do I know... that's my firm belief though, mine life!!! GLA cheers Wan

[muddy_40] 17/5/2019 09:44

cmb,

Yes Hur looking nice for a good move up, should get first oil about end May beginning June, Results of the Warick deep well late June and Capital Makets day coming up in July.

A nice piece from Morgan Stanley on them yesterday also..as below

Hurricane Energy (LSE: HUR) has a new RNS.(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Morgan Stanley reiterated their 'buy' recommendation for shares of Hurricane Energy, telling clients they continued to see a "realistic bull case" for the company under which its shares would trade over five times higher by the end of 2020. According to the investment bank, the outfit's shares were akin to a 'call' option, potentially offering "a very big pay-off". Linked to the above, they pointed out four potential catalysts for the share price over the next rougly two months. The triggers mentioned by Morgan Stanley were: the startup of the early production system at Lancaster, lifting of the first cargo from Lancaster, results from Warwick-Deep exploration well at Hurricane's Lincoln and Warwick assets, and the company's Capital Markets' Day which was tentatively expected for late July. "We believe even an announcement of the CMD will itself be a good signaling factor," they said. Nevertheless, they did also warn that even if those catalysts turned out positively, there might continue to be "significant uncertainty" around the ultimate recovery of reserves at the Lancaster field. Under said 'bull" case scenario, which assumed a long-term price for oil of $75.0 a barrel, and a value of $8.0 for each of the approximately 785m barrels of 2C reserves at Lancaster and Lincoln, Morgan Stanley estimated a net asset value for the shares of 347.0p. However, under their base case scenario the projected NAV was now a lesser 58.0p, which was down from 56.0p previously, and under its bear case it was 17.0p, which was up from 14.0p previously. "We believe a Price Target at this point is not relevant, given the wide range of valuation outcomes."Contact us if you need any helpIf you have any questions please contact us so we can help.

[bumpa33] 17/5/2019 09:38

it'll find fair value sooner or later cmb i'm sure, the numbers are there in black and white now, in a funny way it's never been cheaper...

[callmebwana] 17/5/2019 09:37

Yes Bumpa, I find it strange that people had the opportunity to sell at a higher price yesterday and cash in but they seems to be doing it today !! Yes the crazy P/E valuation. The JORC figures will bump the share price much higher IMO. I am just sitting on my hands.
In the mean time HUR seems to have gotten a move on.

[wanobi] 17/5/2019 09:31

no problem Bumpa :-),,, actually mattjos (many thanx) has answered my question on his thread:-

"95p is the line on the hourly but, not always possible to get that exactly as the opening/closing auctions can often give a 'wick' on the candle which would close the gap but not enable regular market participants to buy at that level at that time:"

so maybe that's the cause of the wick I see and the GAP is most certainly real :-)

oh what a game :-)

RIGHT, that's gotta be it on GAPS now,,,, come on Wan, sort yourself out mate :-)

LOL
Cheers
Wan