Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 20/5/2019 07:51

morning oakey, is it a ppp or fss, I suspect a ppp which you can only use to by funds and not individual shares, would that be correct? cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 20/5/2019 07:48

yes Rb, I heard the cricket was a bit special, well done England,,,,, is our nation finally becoming a nation of winners, have we now started to believe in ourselves, it looks that way to me :-) 4 English teams in the CL & EL footie cup finals also :-),,,,, not so good at song writing though, eh, or was that a fix :-) Rugby WC coming, nice,,,,, LOL cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 20/5/2019 07:42

Good morning all, some great posts over the weekend, thanx :-)

Just to summarize some of the 'Fag packet' numbers we threw around (I tweaked a little also):-

Behre Dolbear believes that overall 10 million tonnes of copper and 45 million ounces of gold could possibly be discovered on AAZ properties.

10 million tonnes of copper at 6000 USD/tonne = $60,000,000,000
45 million ounces at 1250 USD/OZ = $56,250,000,000

Total in the ground valuation = 116,250,000,000 USD

Current Market Cap GBP109,242,450
Shares in issue 114,390,000
Current share price 95.50p
& based on £1 = $1.27

1) MJ, mkt values at 1% of what maybe in the ground
(116,250,000,000/1.27)*1% = 1,830,708,661 / 114,390,000 = £8/share

2) Wan's KISS number :-)
(116,250,000,000/1.27)/114,390,000 = £800/share

3) Wan's KISS number / 2 to account very crudely for all in cost of production averages at $600 (yes, I know its a nonsense for the copper portion) = £400/share

4) KS, AAZ already have a resource of c1 million ounces of gold to JORC standard - so ask yourself why it is not (yet) valued at 1,000,000 x $650 x 0.78 = c£500m or £4.40 a share.....

As highlighted by cmb, KS & jas, my numbers are a nonsense when it comes to the world of accountants and also the irrationality of the market and so on....

The point is, by whatever metric you look at this, to me, the chance of the share price rising here as opposed to falling (black swan events excluded) in the long term are high and the operational risk to get that to happen (provided the BD numbers prove up) seem small :-)

GLA
Cheers
Wan :-)

disclaimer - I am a novice at this, I am not an accountant, I am not experienced in investments, I know nothing about mining company valuations, I just say things as I see them and I am very happy for anyone to suggest what I say here is complete rubbish provided they tell me why :-) LOL GLA

[oakey1] 20/5/2019 07:17

Morning all....I have a small pension pot with prudential that doesn't go up much each year and I don't pay into it anymore....I've been reading up about sipps is it worth transferring to a sipp or is it better to leave it there and just start a sipp from scratch...many thanks in advance for any thoughts or advice....oakey

[riggerbeautz] 20/5/2019 06:13

Morning Wan, I’ll echo some nice comments about your thread, you keep it going, all interesting stuff.

Was a good week for me not just AAZ but Gran Colombia had its first bounce again for sometime; just need the same off Wallbridge now. Add to that following England cricket around great fun, not long until the World Cup now.

Just need a bit more summer weather :)

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 20:46

both Combined I guess, but thats a good question.

Here is the Info -

I can see that prior to april 1st 2019, it was £50k, but then after April 1st went straight to £85k, pretty good.

[brasso3] 19/5/2019 20:39

Does that only apply to the cash in your account or the total value including stocks?

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 20:35

pogue, agreed, thats why I only have 4-8 stocks and no more,human brain cant remember all the important info, too unmanagable.

Btw guys, Some good news regading FCA protection.

Its neither £55k or £75k we are covered for.

The FSCS last year increased protection per share account from £75K to £85K.

[misterdeb] 19/5/2019 19:55

How silly the current share price is giving a company valuation of £109m. When the plant and equipment alone must be worth significantly more. Anyone with any ideas how much they have invested in plant and equipment?

[pogue] 19/5/2019 19:19

yeah I know about complacent but life is too short to track all the incoming divis I operate 2 large portfolios, ISA and SIPP, to avoid large losses. There is a trade off.

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 16:58

Jeansy, I thought it was £75k by FCA?

Anyway, I guess its a good idea if you have a big ISA, but you will have to phone them and ask, atleast both iweb and x-o answer the phone in only a few rings...

I guess you could go half x-o and half iweb, if u need a third, svsxo - they are the same as x-o and iweb but charge £7.95 a trade,no inactivity or periodic fees... so perfect for invest and forget...

I did just think, what if you split ur isa, and FCA say we only give one £75k cover... back to square one, might be worth checking that.

pogue, I cant see either upgrading there fees anytime soon, they have both been £5.95 and £5 for as long as I can remember, they dont offer anything aside from execution only.

As for the divi isssue you had, you shud always keep track regardless of broker... getting lazy and complacent never ends well with anything in life.

[jeanesy] 19/5/2019 15:58

Carlsagan. Its all about spreading the risk. Any broker is only liable for 55 thousand pounds if they go bust by the FSA. That is my primary reason !

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 15:31

Mattjos, you are wise to have that concern, but in this case, around 20 people have povided feedback for both xo and iweb, all saying they recommend and are happy they left ii.

the reason x-o and iweb are cheap is they are execution only, they do not provide articles online or give advice... but thats ok because i manage my own money.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/5/2019 15:31

#Mattjos, I stopped using the share centre for exactly the same reason, their prices and spreads were terrible..

Barclays Smart Investor is £6 a trade, and 0.1% balance pa maintenance costs paid monthly which does add up, but it's as safe as any, and works well integrated with any other accounts held with them..

Any of you LTH's hoovering up shares in 2008/2009 + 2015/2016 must be laughing now, and very well held if you kept believing and have still got them, the yields on those are fantastic, of course it's all about the average price held not just the lowest..

Looking forward to another week here, and an assault on the post IPO peak of 125p in August 2005, onward and upward.. :o)

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 15:07

jeansy, why wud u want to move only part of an isa?
ii will still charge u a minmum of £9.99 a month even if u have £0 in the account and do not trade...

[carlsagan1] 19/5/2019 15:05

thanks for feedback nick and homebrewruss

jeanesy, I am hearing only good things about both x-o and iweb...

both are cheap, however no account open £25 fee with x-o, so thats who im going with.

Just be sure to send of ur trasnfer form within a week or so, because it takes 2 weeks or so to transfer and ii's new feees come into action 10th june

[wanobi] 19/5/2019 13:11

many thanx 11%, very pleased to hear your appreciation of all the contributors here, I shall do my very best to keep it going :-) thanx for posting today and good luck with your investments, cheers Wan :-)

[steve c1] 19/5/2019 13:11

Carl i use halifax itself. Cheap as chips £12 odd yearly fee and you can trade for £1.50 if you use sharbuilder about £12 a trade if not. No frills but cheap.

[11_percent] 19/5/2019 12:59

Hi wanobi,

I am a lurker on your thread. Its a great thread and hope it continues to stay that way.


Morons...lol.

[wanobi] 19/5/2019 12:34

thanx cmb, yep, agreed, I do get excited, I love life and all it has to offer :-) and yes, 100% I still have a lot to learn about investing :-)…. & yes, agreed, the markets irrational behaviour driven by fear & greed creates opportunities for us to invest in undervalued opportunities which may or may not ever achieve their true valuation (however that is determined) :-) :-)

I agree, in the limited time I've been at this I've seen "The market is not logical but emotional IMO. The emotions of investors control the market in AIM not necessarily the fundamentals." as you so correctly state it :-)

Cheers
Wan :-)

[wanobi] 19/5/2019 12:25

you're most welcome hubs & many thanx for your post today,,,,, yes, great point well made in regards to 'falling for a stock',, To me, Thomas Cook has just fallen behind the times I'm afraid,,,, people no longer need their hands holding when it comes to travel, flights, hotels, air B&B's and so on... their business model is just not relevant in todays world and they have failed to spot that and move with the times.... all in my humble opinion :-)

jas & Ks, many thanx, yes, agreed, my calcs are very simple to illustrate just how undervalued AAZ is right now when compared to what maybe in the ground so to speak :-)

I am no accountant & I do appreciate your inputs greatly,,,, & yes, many other accountancy type considerations must be considered in a proper valuation :-)

When it comes to the KISS principle (keep it simple stupid) which I have used very well throughout my life, all I'm trying to do is illustrate that the path of least resistance for the AAZ share price and hence valuation is most certainly up, up, up from here should they prove up those resource numbers and get the stuff out of the ground and sold for a profit,,, which they are demonstrating they are very capable of doing already :-)… & that one thing that should not be a problem going forward is finding more Gold or Copper :-)

So from a simple risk/reward view, right now, operationally speaking (ie no black swan events considered) the risk is low and the potential reward high and that's exactly where I'd like to be invested :-)

Spot of Sunday Lunch for me now chaps, enjoy the rest of the day :-)
Cheers
Wan

[callmebwana] 19/5/2019 12:22

KS.
You have to understand that Wan,gets very excited quite quickly. That is how he is and I understand him as such. I think he still have to learn the fundamentals of mining to a T and the way the market values a mining Co. The market is not logical but emotional IMO. The emotions of investors control the market in AIM not necessarily the fundamentals.
Don't forget he is new to investing. It takes time to learn the ropes IMO.
Credit to him he has learnt very fast and still has a lot more to learn.
I became financially independent when I was 57 years old and took early retirement.
I used to dabble in the stock market while I ran my business,there were no PC's then,
I used to get paper certificates by post.LOL how things have changed. I needed to find something to do to stop the grey matter going stale so started to play the market.
We have a very knowledgeable poster in Bumpa and of course Mattjo on the main thread.
This is a great thread set by Wan and most of us get along great on here.
ATB.

[bumpa33] 19/5/2019 10:56

lead to believe IOF placing announces tomorrow in mid teens, what might catch out some shorts is the open offer 1 for 10 at the same price, to raise another £2m, IF the ex date is already passed. Might provide a trade opp' if so...