Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 11:02

Most unlikely that is a PI coming in for 80k

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 11:01

UT: 80k at bang on 100p

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 10:59

cracking auction right now :-)

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:58

2sporrans - SPA I think do release some odd extrapolations

+1 for Hardman's revised note, as they were 146p before today

[2sporrans] 16/5/2019 10:55

SPA forecasts...only 2019 + 2020

FCF they say [$mn]

2018 27.4
2019 20.5
2020 24.8

looks very conservative [again].
But .... didn't the FCF come in above $29-mn for 2018??
Uhh.
I'm missing something i guess.

Also, if they are seeing $36-mn in the bank 31Dec20 [i'm assuming 0 debt with that], they seem to assume very low CAPEX.
The divi forcast seems odd: 10.2% 2018 then 4.6% 2019 and 2020....but guess this is just a linear extrapolation [of 7c??] as they have denominated the 7c thus far by 53p share price; must be assuming something close to their new 126p target as the new denominator i guess...

interesting they see aisc bumping up to $569/oz this year [$541 2018] - on higher copper-conc. % in the GE mix i guess - but they see it even lower at $536/oz for 2020.

[mad foetus] 16/5/2019 10:50

I'm more interested in the Hardman view tbh

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:49

bud,

from this morning's rns:

Dividend

A final dividend of US$0.04 per share will be paid gross in respect of the year ended 31 December 2018 to shareholders on 25 July 2019 that are on the shareholders record at the record date of 28 June 2019 subject to approval of the shareholders at the Company's Annual General Meeting on 20 June 2019. The shares will go ex-dividend on 27 June 2019. All dividends will be paid gross and in cash. A scrip dividend or any other dividend reinvestment plan will not be offered by the Company.

The dividend will be payable in pounds sterling. The dividend will be converted to pounds sterling using the average of the sterling closing mid-price using the exchange rate published by the Bank of England at 4pm each day from the 1 to 5 July 2019.

[budvan] 16/5/2019 10:46

When are we going to get the dividend payment?

[2sporrans] 16/5/2019 10:38

YasX

When the inevitable uplifted SPA note lands
Maybe it will include a revised 5 year [i guess] cashflow forecast.
Provided we can see their assumptions, might be handy as something to work from.

fwliw expect they will at least resurrect their 108p target of q4-18, pared down to 96p in q1. Maybe raise to ~120p.
Does it matter though?

edit: only just seen you post SportBilly

Thanks for that!

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 10:38

better note from SPA … 6 months late with that particular target and, I'll wager they will still have to upgrade before the year is out to over £1.50

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:31

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) 101p, Mkt Cap £115m – FY18 show +68% in free cash flow with the Board proposing 4USc final dividend
BUY – 126p (form 96p)
• Revenue climbed to $90.4m (+26%) on sales of gold in dore (ex 12.75% PSA) 59.5koz (+37%) at $1,265/oz (2017: $1,265/oz) as well as $14.9m (2017: $16.4m) proceeds from copper concentrate sales.
• AISC costs averaged $541/oz (2017:$604/oz) reflecting higher production from the agitation leaching plant with higher grades processed and better gold recoveries.
• Costs of reagents dropped by $2.8m due to operational efficiencies and processing of easy to leach Ugur ores.
• The Company added experienced managers to look after blasting, transportation logistics and ore handling as well as equipment maintenance.
• EBITDA increased to $49.8m (+55%) highlighting low unit costs status of the operation with margins improving to 55%, up from 45% in the previous year.
• PBT and PAT came in at $25.2 and $16.3m up from $5.7m and $2.5m, respectively.
• FCF (after tax and interest) increased to $27.4m (+68%) allowing the Company to the dividend policy in place.
• The Board recommended a final dividend of 4USc which in addition to 3USc paid in respect of H1/18 brings total dividend for the year to 7USc or $8m, equivalent to 10.2% dividend yield on 2018 average price of 53p.
• Capital expenditures on PPE amounted to $15.3m (2017: $9.4m) including $7.2m in deferred stripping costs at Gedabek and Ugur pits, $2.8m for the jaw crusher and flotation plant related equipment, $3.0m in Gedabek and Gadir development as well as $2.3m in other costs.
• Installation of a dedicated jaw crusher at the flotation plant allowed the Company to launch a parallel processing circuit for rich in copper sulphide material in Jul/18.
• Exploration costs climbed to $2.9m (2017: $1.0m) in line with the management plan to discover organic growth opportunities within Gedabek, Gosha and Ordubad contract areas.
• The Group had $17.7m in cash and $6.9m in outstanding debt as of Mar/19.
• The Company reiterated 2019 production guidance at 82-86 GEOs including 65-67.5koz in gold and 3.1-3.3kt in copper.
Conclusion: Annual results highlight a transformational period for the year with full year contribution from Ugur, installation of the dedicated crushing unit for the flotation circuit significantly improving flexibility of processing operations, good cost control and strong FCF generation that ultimately allowed the Group to go net cash by the end of the year as well as establish 25% of FCF dividend policy.
Additionally, the Company has ramped up investment in exploration including near mine, brownfield and greenfield areas. The recently completed maiden helicopter-borne geophysical survey identified a number of new targets for follow-up exploration work again highlighting prospectivity of the region.
Further discoveries are ready to be accommodated by an extensive existing processing infrastructure at Gedabek significantly reducing operational risks as well as accelerating development schedule.
We firmly believe the three year exploration work is set to deliver on the strategy to extend the life of existing operations past 2024 as well as potentially lead to a greenfield discovery at Ordubad.
Earnings came in better than we expected (EBITDA18e $39.8m) beating forecasts on operating costs (AISC18e $612/oz) highlighting low cost status of Gedabek operations. We have adjusted our unit costs lower moving forwards leading to improved EBITDA and FCF generation numbers.
We have applied 5.0x EV/EBITDA multiple to our average EBITDA19 ($37.4m) and EBITDA20 ($41.2m) estimates as well as adjusting for $6.1m in net cash as of Dec/18 to arrive at our target valuation of $203m or 126p per share. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

(Dec year end) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Gold price US$/oz 1,267 1,161 1,253 1,261 1,271 1,302 1,350
Copper price $/t 6,828 5,505 4,872 6,196 6,554 6,368 7,000
Gold production koz 60.3 72.0 65.4 59.6 72.8 67.1 65.7
Copper production kt 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 3.2 3.6
GE production koz 65.0 77.0 75.2 71.6 83.8 85.3 86.9
AISC (incl PSA, reported) US$/oz 1,050 858 616 604 541 569 536
Revenue US$m 68.0 78.1 79.2 71.8 90.4 95.4 99.1
EBITDA US$m 10.1 18.7 33.7 32.0 49.8 37.4 41.2
FCF US$m -6.9 3.4 14.6 16.3 27.4 20.5 24.8
EV/EBITDA x 7.7 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 3.8 3.5
PER x - - 5.5 13.9 4.9 23.8 17.0
DY % - - - - 10.2% 4.6% 4.6%
Net Debt US$m 52.4 49.0 34.6 18.1 -6.1 -18.6 -36.5

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:31

Right on cue!!

Price target upped from 96p to 126p

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:30

lets see what share price Angel's morning note makes of it? :)

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 10:29

I believe, near as damn it, 10% yield for those buying today and holding for 15 months & current price is at least 50% undervalued.

keep selling please chaps …

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 10:25

will be interesting to see how Stockopedia software views this once its software gets the figures.
Certainly going to flash up in front of more folk shortly.

spread now less than 2% online .. that is just about the tightest i ever recall it being here

[supercity] 16/5/2019 10:20

I said it before and I will say it again - I really believe this share is very undervalued and will do a HOC type rise over the next twelve months

[podgyted] 16/5/2019 10:17

Glad he is now in the money. He's got a lot of work to do over the next few years!

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:11

I wonder if Stephen will take the opportunity now to add a few too?

[bambo1] 16/5/2019 10:09

This stock is getting quite boring, it just seems to keep going up, but I do like boring. :)

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:09

mad,

indeed - topped up here this am on the back of the results, not quite under 100p but almost :)

on many measures this should be 25-50% higher than the current sp, and with reasonable income to boot too

[gadolinium] 16/5/2019 10:07

What can I add to what has already been said? Great results, especially the dividend and future prospects, and good to see a management that seems to be on our side for a change in this wicked world.

[mattjos] 16/5/2019 10:05

indeed yas & jb.

I always use the prize-vegetable grower analogy.

Plants a lot of seeds and watches closely .. thins out the ones that do not show promise and nurtures those that look most likely to be record-breakers.
Continues to do same as the growing season progresses.
He is not going to break any records by culling out the exceptional plants.

As an investor you should, imo, follow same methodology. Cast your net wide, make some early stage investments, keep watching and following progress. Cull out the duds and add to the winners.

Yet, only this week we have had one person here cull out some of his winning AAZ stock and put the hard won proceeds into IOF .. to instantly lose all his prior gains within 24 hours.

[mad foetus] 16/5/2019 10:01

Nicholas Darvas, whose book is cheap and a great read, once said that there is never any reason to sell a share that is rising. I would add, especially one with a wide spread. But if you didn't sell yesterday, with the "risk" of results disappointing, why consider it today when they have been great?

[sportbilly1976] 16/5/2019 10:00

yep - STCM too on an almost 9% yield for those buying at the moment, with potential significant capital appreciation to come as/when the seller clears

[wanobi] 16/5/2019 09:56

indeed Sb indeed :-) LOL cheers Wan