Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davwal] 10/8/2019 17:52

Another point apparently made by the RNS was that Amer believed it now had knowledge of ALL interested parties. Which does suggest a structured process and that matters had formally passed into the assesment/review period, at the end of which prospective bidders will rule themselves in or out of tabling an initial offer. The question for now is how long is a reasonable period for this phase. Unless a participent goes rogue, or in the meantime a hostile party outside of the formal process pops up, we'll probably hear nothing of bids before this period closes - and probably not until a follow-up best final bidding round is completed.

[foiledagain] 10/8/2019 17:32

It is also usual for a relatively large fee to be required from companies wishing to join the Data room.

I note the comments about CPO5, but why on earth would ONGC want to speed up or come up with decent news if they are likely to be potential bidders.

I noted others comments about whether to trust previous ONGC drill results on CPO-5 and it is true that Amerisur miraculously seemed to transform plat after problem after problem only after they had it for a song of Repsol and Ecopetrol, so not beyond realms of possibility that ONGC are doing likewise.

[davwal] 10/8/2019 17:27

All interested parties are currently bound by the terms of the formal sales process which is managed by Amer's agent, BMO. There must be a stipulated period to this phase and I can't see anyone breaking ranks too soon - at least not without a Howitzer-type offer (FSAwatcher's hostile bid). The FSP confidentiality clauses might/must include manadatory secrecy on any offer until such times Amer via its agent has stipulated or deemed fit.
However, keeping the lid on this boiling kettle for very long seems a tall order.
Interesting times...

[sji] 10/8/2019 17:11

Although I would be more than pleased to get news on new drillings [Indico-2 (CPO-5), Coendu-1 (Put-9) and Miraparriba-1 (Put-8)], I am afraid that we will not have to wait that long before we get our first bid - if there is going to be one.

M&P have already approached AMER with a 17p tentative offer valued at c. $267m. This means that before approaching AMER, M&P should have already done some intensive research about AMER. After all, AMER would be a big acquisition for M&P compared to their size. We also know that M&P was the first company to enter for discussions with AMER as soon as AMER put up the sales sign two weeks ago. I would presume that by now, M&P have already got all they need from AMER and are studying the data obtained.

M&P also know that there are other companies at the moment evaluating AMER's assets. So, it would be in their interest to act soon. Personally, I would expect M&P to act BEFORE the end of this month (August) with a formal bid if they decide to go ahead. I would also assume that they will try to win over the BOD with an agreed bid.

ONGC and OXY would also be interested but presumably they both have ROFR on their part of the assets and so, they would wait for M&P to make the first move.

Any other bidders can also join the bidding but I think that M&P have a slight advantage to act first since they have already done a lot of research before they approached AMER two weeks ago.

As always, all above is in my opinion as I have no inside information about what's currently going on.

[yasrub] 10/8/2019 16:39

Not sure about hostile but institutions will have a big say in this.

[3roach] 10/8/2019 16:20

Nicely put squire :)

[fsawatcher] 10/8/2019 15:49

i fink they sayin a done deal aint a done deal until the phat oversize heffer drops final teet

i spell it ain coz u lots a bit fick

they tellin ya

that

when somone says they ave 30% of votes in favar of 26p and yous gotta accept before set date that you stoopids coz once yous do that theys no ways back

they tellin it gonna go hostilles

and that aint the tipe that got bed bugs and leaky roof

if yous fink it gonna be ordarly and poliyte it aint

it gonna be war coz millions at steak ere

rib eyes all round if you stay cool

[lucyp00p] 10/8/2019 14:08

Sorry I was wrong. The literal interpretation can only be don't sell as the quote says....."Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the FSP."The sentence refers to "their shares" i.e. shares already owned. I guess it could also refer to lending as well as selling, but does not suggest that buying more is a bad idea.

[lucyp00p] 10/8/2019 13:40

Re your last point, shareholders are already stakeholders and are the only constituency that are relevant to the communique. My interpretation is simply hold your nerve and be patient. Clearly, were the board to say load up some more, and make a killing even though we can't, they would attract some regulatory attention and annoy the suitors too I guess. But I do take your point.

[quidnunc] 10/8/2019 13:30

An interesting thought Lucy...
A few possibilities:
Perhaps to put on a united front against any hostile bid?
Perhaps because its in all our interests to achieve the best possible sale price?
Perhaps because they've no intention of selling below a certain number and propose to continue trading as before if its not achieved?

But note it says No Action so neither buying or selling...is advised...perhaps they want us to wait until they've flushed everything out of cover and over the guns before they loose the dogs.
Q

[moneylender] 10/8/2019 13:28

Concur completely

£1 by Xmas

[foiledagain] 10/8/2019 13:18

Completely concur

[lucyp00p] 10/8/2019 13:11

Apologies if this has already been pointed out but here's the most interesting takeaway from the last RNS for me..."Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the FSP."I don't believe the company are obliged to include this kind of comment in any disclosure, therefore, my take on it is that the discussions taking place in the FSP must include a meaningful premium to the closing price on the 8th, otherwise, why open the door for any kind of future dispute?

[yasrub] 10/8/2019 13:06

Surely any deal can structure a result from Indico-2? I suggested yesterday CP-05 may be parcelled separately - surely ONGC will be more than interested in the 30% and if not them, who it might be.

[xxnjr] 10/8/2019 12:57

fingers crossed bh. It's about time the bloody rig showed up in the Indico drilling pad! Have a nice week-end everyone. Over and out.

[bountyhunter] 10/8/2019 12:48

I think the problem here is that those that were fortunate enough to have bought in at what may be seen as a reasonable average (myself included as mine is 18-19p) understandably have a different view of what an acceptable sales price would be to longer term holders who have a much higher average no thanks to the BoD.

xx it might not make sense to us but that doesn't rule it out completely although I certainly hope the board do wait for that result as obviously if Indico-2 comes in the sales price can be expected to be much higher.

[xxnjr] 10/8/2019 12:45

bh it wouldn't make sense for the company to decide anything before Indico-2.

[bountyhunter] 10/8/2019 12:41

I just hope we hear the Indico-2 result before anything is finalised. Ok it's not 100% guaranteed but could be truly transformational.

[xxnjr] 10/8/2019 12:34

With regard to the Q on the note.
Maybe M&P read it prior to their informal offer.
i.e they suggested 17p = Steifels Core NAV!!!

there are some small adjustments since note was written.
Sol-1 disappointed. Maybe the reservoir quality is not so good there, as needed an ESP. Are they going to drill Pavo Real? Don't know. Probably will know after next well.

OTOH it's odd OXY carry shown as $42m. But that is because they have risked it at 45%.

Really in the short term it all hinges on Indico-2 outcome, as others have said.

Lightbulb moment! We are an E&P. It's the drill bit that counts.