Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bryet] 07/8/2019 13:02

It's all guess work nobody really knows all Lths can do is keep their fingers crossed.

[dayway123] 07/8/2019 13:02

Jinxxr your analogy is irrelevant.

[kaos3] 07/8/2019 13:00

ups - you will get filtered as well lol

thnx btw

just before the markets turn? cashing in chips - I give it to GC

[vermilion1966] 07/8/2019 12:57

Rumours, rumours - Co looking for 30p, City expects 22-25p

[xxnjr] 07/8/2019 12:36

Glad I sold my original investment in Ophir Energy for north of £6.

It was a great company until the Dr assumed leadership. After that it went down hill. But leaving that aside, using OPHR as a recent example to guide us, works both ways.

It's recent nadir before hoisting the "For Sale" pennant was what? 33p
Sold for what? 57.5p

Uplift 74%

If you apply same metric to AMER @ 12p

Result:-

20.9p

[moneylender] 07/8/2019 12:25

You should have been here 10 or 12 years ago when I was telling everyone Amer was going to 2p!

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 12:16

*consistently drone on repetitively

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 12:10

Also in the case of Ophir - the predator made the bid when Brent/Crude Oil at 2 year lows....

[lucyp00p] 07/8/2019 11:31

Bloody hell, even when I filter the clown, I still get to read his copied post!!

[foiledagain] 07/8/2019 11:19

ashkv

Personally I think you give a good reason why its NOT a good idea for Amerisur to be sold to private equity takeout, or perhaps an orchestrated MBO.

When shale fails as it already has financially and where tar sands the most ecologically damaging oil is stopped, there will be a realisation that we will just not have enough oil to go round and prices will have to rise.

Less and less oil is being found each year and viable Super Giant fields are a thing of the past.

With RH's sales often hidden from shareholders, and even then only reported by using Company Registrar and infrequently at that, the share price here has been walked down over a period of years, at the same time as the cash pile is there, the assets are better than ever, and the production is likely to rise, let alone value in the OBA.

I'm not so convinced that the initial approach isn't a ruse for the sale process, when in my opinion shareholders are best served by Amerisur continuing as Amerisur then being sold for a much higher price.

By having a pathetic first bid then opening to others, it makes any higher bid look far more attractive than it would otherwise be. The potential and trading at Amerisur is better now than when the share price was 60p.

I just hope Amerisur holders kick into touch any pathetic bid from either the original or any other bidder or even an MBO.

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 11:11

Rosanan - I think I am being fair when I convey that there is nothing constructive in your posts. They just harp on one single point - which makes one highly suspect your motives & convey an agenda!!!

Rosanan
"That is for the best because you seem to have huge contempt for the �imbeciles� who disagree with you and little interest in constructive debate."

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 11:10

Oil Titan Harold Hamm - Dissing Equity Market Listing In a Bloomberg article posted this week. Maybe it is time for a Private Equity take-out or a piece-meal sale for Amerisur!!! This is for a multi-billion dollar firm. Great that they are doing Buy Backs - I had been banging on about this point in regards to Amerisur but too late now :(

"Shale Billionaire Hamm Says Little Value in His Public Listing" - Bloomberg Article
Would seem to make the case for a PE Buyout of Amerisur - as potential to realize best value for us shareholders?

It�s such a bad time to be a publicly traded oil company that Harold Hamm, the billionaire founder and chief executive officer of Continental Resources Inc., was asked whether it�s still worth it.
�In today�s market, we don�t see a lot of value in it,� Hamm said Tuesday on the company�s earnings conference call, in response. �But we can�t control the market. We can control what we�re dealing with here on a daily basis, and that�s what we�re doing.�

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 11:07

Look I have great regard for Stifel as I am a reasonable active & informed investor. Stifel have been among the most accurate/realistic in regards to the AIM E&P sector.

For example even Ophir which per FT commentators and others went for a low ball price - Stifel had a TP of 65p - and Ophir went for 57.5p. This is when there was an impetus to sell, NO Ceo, no strategy, move to Asia etc

The fact that Amerisur raised funds at 25p share price in 2016 when Brent at multi-decade lows should be the absolute low bar (+15-20%) for any possible take-out as otherwise it would be admission of a huge failure and catastrophic kleptocratic conduct by Amerisur's board, Chairman, CEO & senior management.

[xxnjr] 07/8/2019 10:23

I'm aware of the Steifel note, having pasted its contents onto these boards some time ago!

[rollthedice] 07/8/2019 10:20

Market clearly doesn't believe that much of a premium over the 17p part cash/part share offer is likely. Falling poo won't help either as investors bail from this very much unloved sector!

30s would be nice but 20s or a part disposal with a special dividend paid out of part of the proceeds (rest retained to progress other licences) is my bet. I'll pin my colours on a sale of CPO-5 with a special dividend paid of say 5-6p per share and rest retained and spent mainly on Put-8.

[lucyp00p] 07/8/2019 10:17

And when did I get gender reassignment? That's my main takeaway from this morning.

[underhill2] 07/8/2019 10:11

The Market at present does not share that view. There must be good reasons why the share price is only around 17.5p. As a holder here I would love 37p but I just dont see that happening. Hopefully in the next few weeks we will see the 1st firm offer to get this process going

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 10:06

A basis for 38p valuation per your inquiry Rosy - is well regarded brokers/research analysts stifel who are junior bankers to Amerisur for the strategic review...

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)

Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share (Risked) according to Stifel

Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 37.3p per the above non-published note excerpted in FT Alphaville!!! Excellent elaboration of the potential upside for Amerisur. Check out yourself on FT Alphaville (Free to register)

[ashkv] 07/8/2019 10:02

M&P's dream team at it in their consistent and relentless message to downplay a realistic takeout for Amerisur.... Two recent examples below...

Agree with you meneither2 - these 2 characters certainly have a shady taint about their blathering uninformed ad hominem rants about Amerisur...


rossannan
7 Aug '19 - 08:24 - 22654 of 22659
That’s WTI down about $2.50 since all this started. Are you still sticking with your 38p Lucy, even in the face of macro headwinds?

rossannan
7 Aug '19 - 08:56 - 22658 of 22659
and I would obviously be overjoyed with 38p, but it seems a highly unlikely endpoint for this process.


xxnjr
7 Aug '19 - 09:32 - 22659 of 22659
0 0 0
More to the point. What's the rationale underpinning her 38p target?

[xxnjr] 07/8/2019 09:32

More to the point. What's the rationale underpinning her 38p target?