Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[westmoreland lad] 09/8/2019 21:54

Correct Toon and ML about the ferret ---------->

a weasel is weasely seen and a stoat is stoataly different but where in fact both
live day to day in fear of the knowledge and danger of the ferret !

Shareholders would do well to remember: "Back in 2014, the stock traded as high as 64.50p."
Assets are better than ever including strategically important OBA, cash rich, no debt and the main reason the share price languishes even at today's rate is from a dedicated and concerted seller.

[11_percent] 09/8/2019 20:56

Wrong......billionaires.

[fatgreek] 09/8/2019 20:50

This time next year Rodney we'll be millionaires

[sji] 09/8/2019 20:23

Eddie_Yates - you said

"Treasure
He thinks we’ve farmed out 4 WELLS to Oxy
Says it all really!!"

If you think that I know nothing about what I am writing because I wrote "farm-out", then you should seriously ask who is managing your company since they too said "$93.25M TRANSFORMATIONAL FARM-OUT TO OCCIDENTAL ANDINA"

Here is the link - hxxp://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Amerisur-Farm-out-presentation-Nov-2018.pdf

[fadilz] 09/8/2019 20:16

AMER received the 17p offer on Thu 18th July, and put the for sale sign up on Friday 19th. To me that says this was a prepared defensive plan, triggered by a low ball offer.

[sji] 09/8/2019 20:14

treasure - on the first point regarding the 4 blocks farmed out to OXY, I said that it will take us 3 years to know the results of the planned 5 wells (all of them). In the original RNS in November 2018, it was claimed that this work will be carried out by OXY between 2019-2021 (3 years). If I remember correctly, it was only last June 2019 that this deal with OXY was sanctioned by ANH, which means that no work had started yet after 7 months! Given the experience with ALL oil exploration companies (and in particular with AMER as operators in this case), there is usually several months of delays between when wells are planned to drill and the actual drilling taking place. Most of the time (but not always), delays are the result of getting the required permits etc. So, I think that by saying that it will take us 3 years for the whole process to complete, I am being a bit generous, believe me!

Secondly, I would presume that OXY would have ROFR in case of a takeover. When it comes to price, it is tricky to value but definitely NOT 2 x $93.25m and I tell you why. Consider a third party bids for our 50% share, how much will it bid? Going by your reasoning, if OXY valued it at $93.25m, the third party will bid the same and OXY, having ROFR, can dish out just $93.25m for the 50% it does not already own. Funnily enough, OXY would have gotten 100% of 4 blocks for just $93.25m (given that up to now, they would have spent minimal if any)!

At the moment, it is very difficult to give a value to these 4 blocks since there is no seismic yet. So, prospective bidders will have to base their value on trust since there is nothing tangible yet. You may ask, then why did OXY offer to pay $93.25m (in expenses NOT cash to AMER) for 50% of these blocks? Personally, I think that they are after our OBA which they can utilize already for their EXISTING production nearby. They were ready to risk a bit on this deal so long as no third party company got in the way between their own already-producing wells and our OBA! And I think that even our own Board had already in mind that eventually OXY would be ready to pay a premium for our OBA. Unfortunately, we haven't utilised the OBA enough and haven't got a fraction of what it could have given us to date. A big operator like OXY will get fantastic returns in a very short time, I guess!

Finally, I didn't say that our board put AMER for sale because we got a duster and a semi-duster! I only pointed out that since risks exist in oil drilling, when you get it wrong (as we did in the last 6 months), the value of your assets will diminish. So, it is not always wish to say (as some posters here continue saying) that they will wait for 2 or 3 years and after finding more oil, we will reach £1! It is NOT a definite that we will find oil wherever we drill!

Personally, I think that it was always the intention of our board to sell AMER before we complete all our drilling. In an interview back in January 2018, Giles had already indicated that CPO-5 was outside their OBA area and would consider selling it if the opportunity presents itself. As I already said before, our board are better deal-makers than operating managers of our assets.

[eddie_yates] 09/8/2019 19:46

Treasure
He thinks we’ve farmed out 4 WELLS to Oxy
Says it all really!!

[treasure] 09/8/2019 18:53

sji
Why do you think that the initial 4 blocks that Amer farmed out to OXY would take 3 years to find out whether they are going to be a success? I thought seismic this year and start drilling next year not in another 3 years. And if Amer is indeed sold or broken up would you agree that it is likely that OXY would get ROFR on the blocks and if so how would the blocks currently be valued. I expect that seismic is or will be taking place soon and also that if the blocks were to be valued in terms of value to Amer it is currently 2 x 93.25 million dollars and perhaps more as operator. Thanks. Oh, and I don't agree with your reasoning as to why the board have put us up for sale. According to the rns it was because we were approached by interested parties and not because of the Calao dusters and some of the other bits you reference. You seem to be quite a conservative risk off type of investor reading through your posts but reference quite a lot go negatives and even negatives on your positive points.

[xxnjr] 09/8/2019 18:13

Decent UT 310,661 @ 18.90
Volume about 7.4m

[sji] 09/8/2019 18:02

Fatgreek - you're counting your chicks before they hatch! Are you sure that all our wells will find oil? Did you read/listen what our Board used to say about Calao-1 and Sol-1 before we actually drilled? Actually, the results of these two wells are the reason our share price languished at 12p only a few weeks ago.

There are so many misconceptions on this bb like the one that our 50% farm-out of four wells to OXY in November 2018 for $93.25m means that our remaining 50% share is valued for that much if not more. The November 2018 farm-out did not get us any money whatsoever. What that contract means is that OXY will spend $93.25m in respect of 85% of 2D seismic and drilling 5 wells and in return they get 50% of the oil that they find. What happens if the 2D seismic shows that the area is not as prolific as expected? What happens if the wells we drill are dusters (like Calao-1) or minor successes (like Sol-1)? Would you pay $93.25m for those 2 wells? Definitely not! But what if we find another 5 Indico-1 wells there too you would ask? Well in that case, we will become millionaires but it's a big IF and we will have to wait for at least another 3 years to know.

With all this information in hand (and even more), our board has decided to put the for sale sign on our company for a reason. They may be thinking that the risks are very high and perhaps if we get a good price now, we should sell. For instance, we would have gotten a better price for our 30% share in CPO-5 had we sold it BEFORE drilling Calao-1 and Sol-1!

The problem I see is that we have a lot of prospects but also a lot of risks. The bidders know this as they too are experienced oil explorers and should know the area well. We should try and get a good price that balances the prospects with the risks. For me, as things stand, we should get something in the mid-20p (double the price we were before this news emerged). If we get positive results from Indico-2 (highly probable) and perhaps from another new well, we should go closer to 30p (150% more than 12p!).

[moneylender] 09/8/2019 17:37

£1 by Xmas

[fatgreek] 09/8/2019 17:30

I don't want to sell now with all the drilling planned I want more, if we sell now even 30 pence isn't what we will be worth in time to come.....we could be way higher once production commences at new wells and I think CPO5 alone is a mammoth field......please don't sell now amer......

[sji] 09/8/2019 17:26

Bit disappointed that we didn't even hold 19p today after confirmation that multiple parties have shown their interest in acquiring our assets.

Since it has been more than 10 days that Sol-1 has finished all tests, I would expect an RNS regarding the spud of Indico-2 next week. I think that we pay a daily fee for hiring the oil rig to drill and so, it is illogical to keep it lying idle. Since the last operations update dated 29 July said that the rig will now move to Indico-2, I would think that news in this regard should be imminent. The only problem I see is that delaying tactics by ONGC could help the latter obtain a better price if they want to buy our 30% share.

Notwithstanding the above, AMER is involved in more drilling prospects. We had to drill Miraparriba-1 (Put-8) in Q2 but since first we bought out our old partner Vetra and then we sold on to our new partner OXY, this well might experience delays until the change in ownership is finalised.

Another well due in Q3 is Coendu-1 (Put-9). Since we are operators here and since we are already in mid-Q3, I hope that we can get some positive news regarding the spud of this well shortly.

I am sure that this is a very busy time for our Board but hopefully, they have good managers who can continue with the planned work on schedule. If we find some more oil before we conclude the sale of the company, we can get a better price - hopefully, much better than the market is currently indicating by our share price!

[quidnunc] 09/8/2019 15:33

SnS, Moneylenders' £1 by Christmas is a touchstone meme from years way back on this BB and not in any way a forecast. Indeed, several of the valued posters from back then have passed away waiting for it to happen.
So don't rely on it but do your own research and form your own opinion.
Q.

[dan de lion] 09/8/2019 15:16

The people involved in looking over AMER having been given confidential info, I assume that bars them from buying/selling AMER`s shares?

[davwal] 09/8/2019 14:49

SNS if you look at the share price movement after the first announcement once the initial jump had plateaud you'll see it's unlikely to progress in the way you seek. It's being held, in my view, in a limited range that allows IIs to trade like pig's in you know what. This will likely jump based on announced events rather than incrementally from positive sentiment.

[moneylender] 09/8/2019 13:44

SNS not qualified to give advice but the folowing is my opinion.

I would have preferred a sale a bit further down the line when CPO5
has been more/fully appraised. Because of the pressures and shear volume we
are experiencing at CPO we need to understand it better but if you look at
GC interviews he alludes to some astronomical values being put on the block.

Down south the OBA is a company maker in its own right. I know it needs some investment in Ecuador but its capacity of circa 70,000bopd at just a few dollars
profit could give a suitor a very nice profit base to work from. Have a look at Lucy's post 22803, it may not be 100% accurate but its pretty close imv.

The unexplored acerage is somewhat of an enigma, OXY paid 115M for 50% farm in, does that make 100% = to 230M? Then we have the blocks that we still own 100%, largly unexplored but with great potential, all we need is time to exploit this.

Platanilo is just a cash cow now and will continue producing with maintenance for another 10 years or so.

I forgot we should have close to £60M cash at bank!

Possibly 5 or 6 potential bidders in the Data room by now, all makes for a very exciting few months.


£1 by xmas

[shakin not stirred] 09/8/2019 13:26

money lender so how much do you believe this may go for at Christmas aas unsure from your posts. But I am looking to invest a substantial amount 6 figure sum but feel I need to wait till the share price moves northwards in daily increments for a period of say a week.

[loftyman147] 09/8/2019 12:46

However, you shouldn't confuse share price with market capitalisation. In isolation comparing the share prices of two companies is irrelevant.

[fozzie] 09/8/2019 12:38

Quite unbelievable reaction to todays rns imo, at this rate we will close flat on the day.

[33mick] 09/8/2019 12:34

Amer 18.72p. Rkh 18.72p
we live in crazy times..

[fatgreek] 09/8/2019 12:30

Amerisur Resources set for takeover as multiple potential buyers sign into confidentialityA strategic review was launched last month and now a formal sales process is advancing.Amerisur Resources - Amerisur Resources set for takeover as multiple potential buyers sign into confidentialityBuyer due dilligence will now take placeAmerisur Resources Plc (LON:AMER) looks set for a takeover as multiple potential buyers of the South America focused oil and gas junior are moving forward in a formal sale process.The explorer, in a stock market statement, told investors that multiple parties had signed confidentiality agreements and a phase of due diligence is now underway.As part of the process, the company will provide the potential buyers with confidential due diligence materials along with access to Amerisur management."The company looks forward to engaging with all potential offerors in a constructive and positive manner through the FSP to achieve an outcome that maximises value for all our shareholders," Amerisur said.As is customary in such situations, it also cautioned: "shareholders are strongly advised to take no action in respect of their shares until completion of the formal sales process."In July, Amerisur launched a strategic review to assess the options available to the company to maximise value for shareholders.One of those options includes was a possible sale of the company.It said the review was undertaken in light of the high level of recent activity in the Colombian exploration and production sector.

[fozzie] 09/8/2019 12:23

It ruins every thread it posts on