Alphawave Ip Share Discussion Threads

[m w] 18/1/2022 12:10

Barclays overweight, price target £5.00

[ny boy] 17/1/2022 15:43

Fly me to the moon baby! Loaded up with more recently, have been adding on the way down, patience and many of us will be rewarded in due course

[cordwainer] 17/1/2022 14:31

My quick rough calcs are only based on management expectations given at interims and a similar overall profit margins. I've not attempted to account for any exceptionals either so there's plenty of scope for inaccuracy and ineptitude. Apologies for not clarifying in my previous comment.

[young_analyst] 17/1/2022 14:03

Average broker expectation for net profit is almost $32m for cal. 2021 (assuming no one upgrades on the back of the higher than expected bookings announced today). That implies a PE of c50x, falling to c20x FY21E. This ignores almost $0.5bn of net cash (c1/3rd of mkt cap), so you could arguably lop another third off those valuations. The JPM downgraded TP of 311p has stripped out ALL the value from CPP, so plenty of upside, even if you don't believe that 'bookings' will turn into 'revenue' in China.

[cordwainer] 17/1/2022 12:48

(edited) No change in FY 2021 revenue expectations there, with Mcap at approx. 19.5 x revenue, forward p/e approx. 160 ? Better than e.g. ITM Power at least, and countless aim-listed businesses yet to make any profit at all. Analyst expectations over the next 3-5 years along with inflation and discount rate assumptions might drive volatility here, but I guess faithful holders will be rewarded assuming the FT doesn't drop any more bombs.

[masurenguy] 17/1/2022 07:38

IPO was overpriced - I bought in here at under 200p. There should be some good upside from here.

[seadiver] 17/1/2022 07:23

225% year-on-year increase in total bookings vs. FY2020, which exceeds targets set at the IPO. Does this mean we should be trading above the IPO price?

[scepticalinvestor] 17/1/2022 07:23

Oh dear - excellent update, which means a 20% drop today

[masurenguy] 17/1/2022 07:08

Q4 2021 Trading and Business Update

- Record 2021 bookings, with over 225% growth year-on-year
- Multiple new royalty-bearing 400G/800G/1600G (1.6T) chiplet wins in Q4 2021
- Strong pipeline underpinning continued revenue growth and profitability in 2022 and beyond

Tony Pialis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alphawave IP stated: "We are pleased to have surpassed our original bookings estimates provided during the IPO, and even our own expectations for the year. This performance reflects the strength of our pipeline, the pull from new and existing global customers and the value of our chiplet strategy. It also reinforces our leadership position in the marketplace for the highest performance connectivity solutions in the most advanced technologies in semiconductors."

[davidro77] 16/1/2022 22:07

It's a good article but quite vague in terms of valuation levels. I mean alpha being undervalued vs it's peers is compelling but what if the valuation model for the entire peer group changes markedly and the market values current vs future profits far more strongly, which appears to be what is happening right now:We think such growth warrants a premium valuation, but at current levels it only trades at the low end of peers... We think it reasonable for Alphawave to trade at least at a slight premium to much slower-growing peers", the bank added.So the business may perform as planned and share price could more than double but if that happens from a really low base then we still don't win

[davidro77] 16/1/2022 22:01

What is this company's current and projected price to sales, in terms of the negative sentiment right now on high growth cos?

[gregmorg] 15/1/2022 17:32

I note that Carmignac Gestion, a French finance manager, one of the biggish original shorter with over 1.6% short position at its peak( from memory) has departed the scene . It's short position was last shown as 0.59% i.e. representing around 3.92m shares. Borrowed from an existing shareholder for a fee, as I understand it.

My understanding is short positions no longer need to be declared by the Regulator once the position dips below 0.50%. Obviously, this particular short reduction doesn't change anything really as its all down to the Company's trading progress but it is still nice to see!

[the lockkeeper] 13/1/2022 19:01

other than the share price halving!

[m w] 13/1/2022 18:38

Nothing's changed since then

[bookish] 13/1/2022 07:41

Alphawave joins forces with Microchip on AlphaCore 112Gbps IP for 800G and 1.6T ethernet applications -
MarketLine

12-Jan-2022 19:31:20


Alphawave announced that Microchip Technology has chosen Alphawave's AlphaCore100 for its next-generation META-DX2 1.6Tbps Ethernet retimer family.

This represents an important milestone for Alphawave as it validates another large customer has adopted its low-power and high-performance 112Gbps IP.    

Tony Pialis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Alphawave stated: "Microchip was an early customer of Alphawave and we congratulate them on their newly announced META-DX2 solution. 

This solution leverages our 112Gbps IP that we first delivered to Microchip in 2021.  We are pleased to welcome Microchip to the ranks of Alphawave customers that will be taking their solutions to market in 2022." Microchip's META-DX2 is the industry's most compact 1.6T Ethernet PHY solution with up to 800GbE  connectivity for Cloud Data Centers, 5G and AI. 

The product leverages Alphawave's low-power 112Gbps PAM4 SerDes IP that was first developed beginning in 2017 and qualified for production in 2018. Babak Samimi, Vice President of Microchip stated: "We partnered with Alphawave on the 112Gbps generation of our META-DX2 terabit-scale Ethernet PHY product line based on the proven performance of their IP.  By working with Alphawave, we have realized world-leading performance and ensuring we achieve our desired time to market. We look forward to supporting our customers on integration of META-DX2 into their platforms over the coming months."

[gregmorg] 11/1/2022 13:41

Interesting volume with 5.4 million crossed and a few quarters gone thru as well

[jtdk] 11/1/2022 00:25

Billion dollar bookings by 2023/24

[f56] 10/1/2022 23:37

It’s a case of getting rich by following the top people in China and avoiding the general dishonesty and lack of morality of the Chinese base substandard culture as a whole.

[f56] 10/1/2022 22:45

Saying that there are some big hitters behind Alphawave who may be able to negotiate there way through the corruption of the China state. There are a few people who are successful in China who are capable of navigating through this corrupt country. Some of the people backing Alphawave have links to the top people in China.

[f56] 10/1/2022 22:35

And also there is the Chinese element which adds further risk as no one trusts the Chinese who are known to be false and dishonest in their dealings.

[f56] 10/1/2022 22:26

If there are skeletons in the cupboard then no doubt it will become a bottomless pit and investors will lose all their money.

[davidro77] 10/1/2022 22:07

Unprofitable high growth businesses are now firmly out of favour with the markets, and it only looks like the start of a new cycle. so I think it's far too early to put any further funds into this, and potentially still time to exit before things really get ugly

[f56] 10/1/2022 18:55

it doesn’t matter what the bottom is so long as you know how to work out the top.