Alphawave Ip Share Discussion Threads

[dividevil] 13/12/2024 12:11

And further to my last post just now, this may suggest given the timing of Mirabella Financial Services 1.18% short position, that they are one of the bondholders. Not sure about the other 11.2 million delta shares though. Either there's lots of smaller bond investors with positions below the 0.2% threshold or they have yet to report their short positions to the FCA.

[dividevil] 13/12/2024 12:00

Indiestu,

That is very valid point, and so after doing some enquiries just now, it turns out that you are absolutely correct. The short selling is usually done straight away or at least quite quickly after the announcement. I had incorrectly thought that the shorts couldn't be placed until after the offering is closed next week. But what they do is for those bondholders who want to hedge their bonds with shorts is to have commitment upfront of the closing date. This was actually reassuring to know.

Thanks for raising that point.

[dividevil] 12/12/2024 20:27

John Lofton Holt was on 3.55% (27 mill) before acquiring 19 million off the other three founders.Fidelity loaned out 15 million of their shares for the delta placing short sell by some of the bond holders. Mirabella Financial Services opened a short in the last day or two for 1.18% of shares (about 8.7 million). Short exposure of holdings above 0.2% is currently running at 4.61% and that's before the 20 million delta placing shorts start to come into play from middle of next week. I hope the bookrunners facilitate this sensibly!

[indiestu] 12/12/2024 17:50

This is getting interesting. FIL move to 6% interest 2% of which are financial instruments. They then lend out 2% for short selling. July Twelve Capital (John Lofton Holt ex chairman) declares 6%. Not sure what he was on before he left but I remember he was a smaller holder. What does it all mean? FIL building a position but trying to keep a lid on the price until they have built their stake. Holt holding tightly to his shares but moved them to his investing vehicle even after his exit. Shares being transferred from the weak hands to the firm hands following IPO. They will use every trick in the book to shake out PI's who have funded the company from IPO. This is going to be a fun ride.

[indiestu] 11/12/2024 14:15

The share price should close at 117 as the delta hedging plays out. That will be slap bang on a rising 50 day MA.

[takeiteasy] 11/12/2024 13:46

Re 2046, I wonder how many with this view have open shorts seeing share price continuing to drop like a stone...where is the support level possible...

[hamidahamida] 11/12/2024 10:04

After all the BAD news all the DEBT and company is still valued over 1 billion Serious share price corrections is imminent imo

[tsmith2] 11/12/2024 08:41

Directors cashed a decent chunk of equity at £1.17. 21M shares

[tsmith2] 11/12/2024 08:29

it's called be ramped up?

[valhamos] 11/12/2024 08:23

It has been clear for a while that they were going to run out of cash, the only surprise is the size of it and that it involved so much equity. Also a bit surprised the share price increased in the last few weeks when this convertible offering was certainly more than a possibility.

[valhamos] 11/12/2024 08:18

As expected price drops because of dilution to approx. sterling equivalent clearing price($1.49).

[dfvuk] 11/12/2024 08:11

The key founder departed last week and now they have scrambled to do a distressed fundraising.

[indiestu] 11/12/2024 07:54

If they have to buy them back and the share price is lower due to a general market crash they are protected.

[indiestu] 11/12/2024 07:50

The short delta can use options to protect the value of the bond. Makes it a very safe investment.

[tsmith2] 11/12/2024 07:46

numbers in dollars

[indiestu] 11/12/2024 07:39

Company sells bonds gets 150 milInterest gets paid yearly in March at 3.75%The bonds are paying a low interest rate which demonstrates they are secureIn 2030 they pay back the bonds at 1.49Or the bond holders convert them to shares at 1.95By 2030 the share price should be well over 1.95 so they are getting a very good dealDirectors are stumping up 20 mil to buy in150 mil can be used for r&d, working capital and paying off more expensive current debtThe dilution in five years time should have little impact if the market cap has grownIf there is the demand it's good news

[gregmorg] 10/12/2024 18:36

So the company has provided the answer as to it having sufficient funds into 2025 to cope with their growth strategy, hence the announcement of this £150 million convertible bond semi backed by certain directors/ major shareholders . I cannot pretend to understand the short selling option/strategy that somehow various company directors /supporters are also announced as intending to engage in quite a big way. Anyone want to spell it out in more simplistic terms? No doubt I will get there eventually but just how many times do I really want to read this announcement.

[indiestu] 04/12/2024 08:02

hTTps://www.forbes.com/sites/moorinsights/2024/11/07/digging-into-the-ultra-accelerator-link-consortium/

[indiestu] 26/11/2024 08:03

hTTps://semiconductor.samsung.com/news-events/tech-blog/samsung-foundry-partners-with-arm-adtechnology-and-rebellions-to-develop-an-innovative-ai-cpu-chiplet-platform-ideal-for-modern-ai-datacenters/

[indiestu] 24/11/2024 13:07

Hi waxy. Great question. They claim they are on track to book 1 billion in revenue by 2027. So my target considering this growth rate would be a valuation of 3 x revenue by FY27. 400p ish. However it's unlikely I would sell while they are demonstrating growth. It's going to be interesting when we understand how profitable the new licensing model is. If they begin to generate huge amounts of cash there could be aggressive share buybacks or dividends sooner than expected.

[technowaxy] 22/11/2024 19:40

Hi What is your TP indie Stu, if you don't mind me asking ? Will you bail at 180 if it gets there ?