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AWE Alphawave Ip Group Plc

-1.60 (-1.37%)
05 Dec 2023 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Alphawave Ip Group Plc LSE:AWE London Ordinary Share GB00BNDRMJ14 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.60 -1.37% 115.20 2,274,124 16:29:55
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
115.20 116.40 118.00 115.20 116.80
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Cmp Integrated Sys Design USD 185.41M USD -1.09M USD -0.0015 -768.00 815.36M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:09:16 O 1 116.80 GBX

Alphawave Ip (AWE) Latest News

Alphawave Ip (AWE) Discussions and Chat

Alphawave Ip Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
04/12/202313:18Alphawave IP chip maker1,731
09/11/202115:32I can smell shorts burning 1
09/11/202114:55I can smell shorts burning -
29/10/202108:21"AWESOME"...why do stupid Americans keep saying this?13

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Alphawave Ip (AWE) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2023-12-05 18:09:41116.8011.17O
2023-12-05 18:09:18115.204,3074,961.66O
2023-12-05 17:54:40115.2013,74715,836.27O
2023-12-05 17:45:53116.87185216.21O
2023-12-05 17:44:47116.5852,19360,844.51O

Alphawave Ip (AWE) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 05/12/2023 08:20 by Alphawave Ip Daily Update
Alphawave Ip Group Plc is listed in the Cmp Integrated Sys Design sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AWE. The last closing price for Alphawave Ip was 116.80p.
Alphawave Ip currently has 707,775,259 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Alphawave Ip is £815,357,098.
Alphawave Ip has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -768.00.
This morning AWE shares opened at 116.80p
Posted at 04/12/2023 13:18 by trader465
Why would it rise and fall with Credo? AWE YTD +2.5%, CRDO YTD +46%. It clearly hasn’t risen and fallen with it 🤷‍a94;️
Posted at 25/9/2023 08:50 by dividevil
Adam,I get that $123.5 million of the H1 revenue came from China. This is not at all too much. The non-China revenue at $63.1 million is a 79% increase on H1 of 2022. The 2022 Financial report makes it clear that AWE expect the China revenue to fall below 10% of the total revenue over the long term. Remember also that AWE strategy pre IPO was China focused and prior to the rise in geopolitical tensions. The fact that AWE have managed to steer through this crisis and still generate huge growth be it by acquisition or organically is a testament to their adaptability and clear headed vision to realign their business according to the circumstances. Anyone thinking that 66% revenue from China today is too much are getting their frilly knickers into a twist over nothing of significance. In the Silicon IP business most bookings are converted to revenue in a matter of months and all bookings are contractual non-cancellable commitments. The only time bookings don't convert to revenue is if the royalties don't materialise but the largest chunk of the bookings is NRE and license fees. The two main things that crucially matter the most for AWE's success are: That they achieve revenue according to their stated guidance and growth targets and that they at least maintain their portion of the addressable market year on year. Given that the they are focused on the high end future generation products in the data centric market it is an inevitability that they will increase their share of the addressable market. So all this focus on the 'apparent' cash flow mess which really is not that significant in the grand scheme of things is a mere side distraction. Any price weakness in the next 6 to 12 months only represents a fantastic opportunity to build a strong position in a business that is very highly likely going to be generating more than 4x the current forecast revenue for 2023 within 5 years of now.
Posted at 24/8/2023 19:58 by valhamos
"The market can drive a person to madness" The prevention is not to be concerned about short term share price movements.

"it ...can stay irrational.." which is where rational investors make money.

If you were kicking yourself for not adding yesterday morning, then you must delighted to have had another opportunity this afternoon?
Posted at 23/8/2023 07:59 by dividevil
It's normal. AWE competitors on NASDAQ have also drifted down a bit since the AI fervour that hit in May. If AWE stays on track to its guidance revenue the share price will recover and should gain more ground. Next update due in September / October.
Posted at 12/7/2023 12:35 by dividevil
There are several valid reasons why AWE listed in London and not US.

For starters, UK domicile allows for greater flexibility to sell into the US and Asia with lower risk of restrictions. Note that the US has just recently imposed restrictions on certain types of semiconductors to China. AWE UK listing provides some protection against these.

Secondly, LSE are trying to entice companies to list on its exchange and have offered certain incentives to do so. Some have argued that the rules on the LSE are more lax than on NASDAQ (I disagree but that is an aside). By listing on the LSE, AWE achieved a massive capital raise that would have been far less likely in the US. Admittedly, this significantly benefited the selling shareholders and I would argue that they should have put more of the capital raised into the company than into their own pockets. Still, they determined a certain figure that they considered sufficient to meet the company roadmap objectives and the rest was theirs to pocket. Anyone in their shoes would have done the same - it is after all one of the main attractions of an IPO.

Thirdly, at the time, it was considered that there would be an attractive supply of semiconductor talent in the UK and there were plans for a Cambridge design base. This strategy changed when they opted to acquire OpenFive. I suspect the OpenFive plan was already in the pipeline prior to IPO but a Cambridge design base was nevertheless a serious consideration. AWE have said they may yet revisit having a UK design base in the future if they can see it being a viable business proposition.

Suggestions in the FT Alphaville piece of September 2021 that they listed in the UK to avoid attention to alleged founder-related transactions were inaccurate and misconstrued. In my opinion, the FT Alphaville writers, have close associations with Hedge Funds with an eye on shorting campaigns, so distorting the truth is their forte.
Posted at 05/7/2023 15:33 by dividevil
So in that 52 minutes I just listened to, Tony was given the opportunity to wrap up... and here's a rough transcript (copied from the site) of what he says:

"It's not often I get to wrap up with that type of platform. Simply put, we will be the next great semiconductor company. Like a Broadcom or Marvell. And how are we going to get there?

For the first decade, we'll be focused on connectivity. Beyond that we'll continue to expand. We're an engineering first company. And no one has ever challenged our technology and our technology leadership.

The shorts and everyone else have tried throwing rocks at us have been on the peripheral, but never at the technology. That's because I'm an engineer by trade. All of the leadership team, or the vast majority of the leadership team are engineers. And if technology leadership is critical to our success, that means our engineers are just as critical because they're the ones building the tech.

So we know who are customers are and we focus on them. Our engineers drive innovation, and my job as CEO is to set that north star and everytime I get with my people I remind them to not look at the day-to-day stock price, but to focus on building the next great semiconductor company of the industry. Follow the plan and success and ultimately the share price will reflect our success. And so I'm super excited to be where I am today.

This has always been the goal, but to see the goal beginning to materialize and getting to scale is rewarding. But look I'm a young guy. I'm still in the middle of my 40s. I have a lot of energy and vigor left, and I'm going to use all of that energy and vigor to push this organization higher.

I hope the innovation and passion has come across in this conversation. And from my perspective, we’re a steal today. I hope shareholders listening today know that I am the number 2 shareholder in the company behind the Sutardja family.

I’m aligned with my shareholders. Every decision that's made by myself and my other C level executives are made with the same objective. And it’s not to drive share price in the next 24 hours, but to build a long-term and sustainable business."

Whenever I've listened to Tony in the investor calls, presentations, videos and whatever, I've always been struck by his passion. He believes his company will be the next great semi-conductor company. Of course anyone investing wants to hear that, and I like to think I'm cautious, yet this is something where he's got me believing he will achieve his ambitions. Although he and his team have a big success rate in selling their previous companies at profit, Alphawave is the culmination of Tony’s life work and therefore is a company that Tony intends on holding on to for quite some time. He seems absolutely intent on making Alphawave at least as big as Marvell. So with any luck, if you've invested here for the long term, there's a good probability you're going to do extremely well out of it.

Admittedly, the last segment of the talk was a little bit of put off, as Doug asks about why Tony can't buy back shares in the company. And I'm thinking, please I don't won't the management to own more of the company than they already do. The management already own nearly 60% of the company. The last thing I want as a shareholder is for the company to be bought out by their own management. It would be a blue sky dream come true to see my investment in Alphawave reach the point where the company matures into a Marvell sized business with a Marvell sized share price!
Posted at 19/5/2023 19:47 by jonnywalker77
Wasn't able to join the call but I'll take a stab at what I think's happened here - happy to be corrected. I'm also going to use fictional numbers/dates for simplicity.

OpenFive (pre-AWE acquisition) enters into a 1 year customer contract on 1 January 2022, worth £120m, which it gets paid in full up front. On day 1 OpenFive recognises a cash asset of £120m, and a deferred revenue liability of £120m. Every month throughout 2022, it "releases" £10m of deferred liability and recognises a corresponding £10m revenue item (i.e. the revenue is recognised on a straight line basis over the year, under accrual accounting).

On 30 June 2022, AWE buys OpenFive, at which point the latter has a deferred revenue liability of £60m (i.e. we are 50% through the financial year). Post-deal, AWE continues to unwind that deferred revenue liability to the tune of £10m/month, so recognises a total of £60m revenue in its unaudited FY22 results, like OpenFive would have done as a standalone company. Sounds reasonable, right? However...

Under IFRS acquisition accounting AWE was supposed to do a fair value assessment on all the assets and liabilities that it acquired. What is the fair value of that £60m deferred revenue liability, which relates to a contract for which cash was already received pre-acquisition? No idea, but invariably these fair value assessments lead to a write-down (or "haircut") of deferred revenue liabilities on acquisition, and a corresponding reduction in the amount that is unwound in subsequent months (so if the deferred revenue liability got fair valued at £30m, AWE would only be able to recognise £5m/month for the remaining 6 months). It seems that this acquisition accounting adjustment wasn't spotted by the prelims, but came up in the FY22 audit, hence the delta in today's numbers.

Seems like a genuine oversight to me - not convinced it is a CFO resignation event although the bigger picture here is that an ex banker probably isn't best placed to be CFO of a complicated plc under heavy media scrutiny (think back to the hot air around the related party disclosures...). You might also question the rationale for the IFRS approach - Interestingly, US GAAP changed in the last few years to avoid this exact scenario (no doubt a higher profile issue there given the number of acquisitive tech businesses with substantial deferred liability balances).

For what it's worth I have a concentrated position in Alphawave and have no concerns having read through today's RNS, but appreciate any colour/clarification from anyone who was on the call.
Posted at 20/4/2023 21:49 by dividevil
Valuing AWE using EBITDA.

According to the information in the above link, the 2023 semiconductor industry values for:
median EBITDA valuation multiple is 10.4x
average EBITDA valuation multiple is 16.9x.

Note that EV (enterprise value) equals market capitalisation plus net debt.

For Alphawave Semi, based on:
701 million shares in issue,
current closing price of 1.158 GBP (1.44 USD)
net debt value of 35 million USD
Adjusted EBITDA 2023 guidance value 87 million USD,

EV/EBITDA valuation multiple works out to be about 12.
Therefore, using this metric, you could say that Alphawave Semi is currently undervalued by as much as 30% based on the average valuation multiple.

Alphawave Semi however, is a significant growth prospect and are clearly well placed to capitalise on the growth expectations of the semiconductor industry.

Based on the semiconductor average of 16.9x and 2023 guidance EBITDA figure mentioned above works out to a share price of 1.64 GBP (2.04 USD).

Using their 2025 guidance EBITDA figure of 150 million USD, assuming no change in net debt and 5% share dilution, share price works out at 2.73 GBP (3.40 USD), or using the far more conservative median EBITDA valuation multiple of 10.4x, share price works out at 1.66 GBP (2.07 USD).

Moving forward to 2027, Alphawave have a set a target for 1 billion USD revenue.
So based on Adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% (from 2025 guidance values) we would get, an estimated EBITDA of 300 million USD. Assuming no change in net debt and 10% share dilution, share price would work out at 5.24 GBP (6.53 USD) based on the average valuation multiple, and 3.21 GBP (4.00 USD) based on the median valuation multiple.

The above calculations assume that:
Alphawave achieve their guidance targets
Semiconductor industry continues on its expected growth path
World economy doesn’t go into some serious downturn
Company does not take on further debt for new acquisitions etc
Company share price is fairly valued by the market close to the semiconductor average / median valuation basis.

In the 2027 example, if say the net debt was increased to 200 million USD due to a new acquisition, then using the median valuation multiple, this would still yield a share price of approximately 3.04 GBP (3.79 USD).
Posted at 02/3/2023 14:55 by dividevil
The hakastocks article is really good.

However, the Enterprise Value (EV) stated in the article given as US$360m is out of date and is a figure based prior to the acquisition of Banias Labs.
In the RNS regarding that acquisition, Alphawave stated that net debt is approx US$35m. This means EV is now US$766.2m + US$35m = US$ 801.2m.

Alphawave's 2023 guidance EBITDA is estimated to be US$87m, therefore in my opinion they are currently trading at 9x the 12 months EBITDA. Not 2x as suggested by the article. AWE are undoubtedly cheap but not that cheap!

If AWE were trading at the average for the semi companies mentioned in the article (i.e about 14x the 12 months EBITDA, then the share price should be sitting around £1.40 today.

Using AWE's 2025 forecasted EBITDA of US$150m the price should be around £2.36.

The article mentions that Credo (AWE's equivalent competitor) are trading at 48x their 12 month EBITDA. It appears Credo are very expensive compared to their peers, though maybe it accounts for the fact that AEC cabling has very high growth expectations. If AWE were trading on this same ratio then the share price should be north of £8.

All in my very own opinion of course.
Posted at 23/6/2022 10:41 by maytrees
Good morning
Odd to me as a PI in AWE, to see that although announced sells greatly exceed buys announced so far, the AWE share price is up.
Any reason for this? t/o in the offing or so far unannounced buys?
Alphawave Ip share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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