Alba Mineral Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nicosevos] 29/12/2016 10:32

"The neat trick is that Brockham is permitted for production. So, unlike Horse Hill, it could be put on tap immediately."



That's how I see it....................

[moneymunch] 29/12/2016 10:23

Transformational upside potential IMMINENT......and significant re-rate is on the cards for those invested.......and there's plenty around who don't want you invested. gla holders... Exciting times with news due on Brockham, Greenland and Ireland. ;-)

16 Dec 2016
The work is is a re-entry and sidetrack to a hole drilled by BP in 1987

Brockham's latest well will go straight into production

On Thursday 15th December 2016 Angus confirmed it had begun work on a well at Brockham, in Surrey.

It is a re-entry and sidetrack to a hole drilled by BP (LON:BP.) in 1987 that will first go into the Portland sandstone, host to a known oil play that is already generating 35 barrels a day.

It will then push on into the Kimmeridge, before perforating a horizon called the Coralian.
Kimmeridge has potential

The Kimmeridge has the potential to really move the needle, for this was the source for all the excitement at nearby Horse Hill, which flowed at a better than expected 1,688 barrels a day.

Horse Hill and Brockham are thought to share many geological similarities.

Eagerly anticipated will be the results from three discrete layers within the Kimmeridge.

What the experts suspect is the Kimmeridge at Horse Hill is naturally fractured, allowing oil to accumulate, so that when accessed, it flows easily to surface under its own steam.

If this model holds up then there would be no need for fracking to release this hydrocarbon bounty.

"All the original BP wells at Brockham that passed through the Kimmeridge and Corallian formations were drilled without properly assessing their hydrocarbon potential" said Angus chairman Jonathan Tidswell-Pretorius.

We] look forward to update the market with the results of the assessment in due course."
The same geology as Horse Hill?

There is no guarantee that Brockham will enjoy identical geology to Horse Hill but there is a suspicion it does; well more than that.

It is a hunch based on drilling carried out by BP, which used to own the Brockham licence.

One of Angus's field partners, a firm called Doriemus, commissioned the consultant Nutech to make a comparative analysis of the Horse Hill-1 well and Brockham-1, sunk by BP in the 1980s.

Angus believes the maturity and fracture analysis of the two have striking similarities.

The drilling should take roughly 10 days.

Re-entering the Portland should increase output by 150 barrels a day.

If the Kimmeridge plays out in the same way it did at Horse Hill then you might add a further 1,4000 barrels to production. That's a big deal.

The neat trick is that Brockham is permitted for production. So, unlike Horse Hill, it could be put on tap immediately.

Horse Hill was drilled as an exploration well and the testing was carried out over hours rather than weeks or days.

So it will require extensive further testing and the compilation of a field development plan before commercial production can take place.

That will take some considerable time to achieve. So in effect Brockham could leap-frog Horse Hill in the race to get oil to market.

If it finds oil, Angus wants to learn a great deal more out about potential of the Kimmeridge.

However it won't be rushing through the gears. Slow and steady wins the day.

The evaluation of the zones of interest is likely to take a number of weeks as the Angus team assesses each discrete horizon.

[moneymunch] 28/12/2016 11:13

Home » Q & A » Q&A with Dowgate Capital Stockbrokers: Alba Mineral Resources Plc
Alba Mineral Resources Plc
Q&A with Dowgate Capital Stockbrokers: Alba Mineral Resources Plc

Posted by: Amilia Stone 14th October 2016

Dowgate Capital Stockbrokers Analyst Jason Robertson caught up with DirectorsTalk to discuss Alba Mineral Resources Plc (LON:ALBA)



Q1: Now I wanted to talk to you today about Alba Mineral Resource. The research note that I have in front of me is from 5th May this year, is this the most up to date research that you’ve issued on Alba?

A1: It is yes, that’s right. I mean that note’s looking a bit old now, that was back in May as you said, and we are preparing a new revised updated note at the moment which we’re hope will be issued quite soon. Since that note was issued there has been more technical information published on Horse Hill and also the Brockham licence, which is next door to Horse Hill, which Alba also have an interest in. There’s also been more activity on their graphite gold and gold prospective project in Greenland so quite a lot has happened since that note back in May so quite a few things to talk about and to update people with.



Q2: So the 5th May note has a target price of 16.5p which is far above the current share price of Alba Mineral Resource at the moment of 0.3, why is there such a big difference?

A2: There is quite a big difference, the valuation is based upon a number of risk factors but essentially the basis of the note is based upon the technical reports that have been published by the industry experts such as Schlumberger, Nutech etc. so it’s based upon those figures and also most of the valuation, probably about over 99% of it, is based upon Alba’s stake in the Horse Hill licence. So it does seem like quite a difference you’re right, I think there’s also a lot of scepticism out there in the wider investment world about whether there’s actually a large oil discovery in southern England, in the Weald basin, I think a lot of people of sort of a bit sceptical about that and sort of wonder whether it can be developed. It probably will take a few years to actually get developed and also probably because it’s quite near to Gatwick airport I think people are worried that that might cause problems or not but I don’t think it would do. So yes I think there’s a bit of a difference between the target price and also the current share price, that will probably close at some point and also it is a conventional oil in play and some people are thinking it’s a frack in play which it isn’t so I think some people still think that might be a problem as well but I don’t think it is really.



Q3: Can you explain the different risk factors that you’ve used to value Alba’s Horse Hill interest?

A3: Yes sure. There was a number of different risk factors we’ve used in it so we’ve analysed the valuation based upon different pay zones or geological levels so you’ve got the Upper Portland which is near to the surface, you’ve got the Kimmeridge zone which is where we think most of the oil is and then you have the layers below that such as the Oxford, the Corallian and the Oolite.

So there’s a number of different zones there and they’ve each got different risk factors applied to them, I think one of the biggest risk factors is the recovery rates so we’re assuming that in the Upper Portland zone there’s a potential 20% recovery rate and so we’ve estimated in Kimmeridge an 8% recovery rate and also further down the layers below that perhaps recovery rates of about 4% so there’s different sort of recovery rates there.

We’re probably being very cautious actually on those recovery rates and in addition to that we’ve also got the development risk so there’s a development risk applied for each of those different zones, the Upper Portland has a very low development risk of around 15% right down to the lower zones below the Kimmeridge which has got quite high development risk of 50% thus the second risk factor.

We also valued the oil based upon discovery values so some of the higher levels nearer to the surface have got a higher discovery value per barrel, as high as $10, it sounds quite high but then you’ve got these other risk factors behind it as well so it’s not really as high as that. The layers that are below the Kimmeridge have got just about 50 cents per barrel exploration value and just going back up to the Kimmeridge got a discovery value of about $8 per barrel on that so it sounds quite high but you’ve got all those other risk factors that sort of bring that down.

Of course the biggest risk factor in all these different valuations of course is the recovery rates, the recovery rate could be a lot higher than what we’ve estimated, which itself is based on some of these capital reports that have come out from Schlumberger and Nutech etc. so there are a number of factors that we do use to sort of risk it, as such, so yes quite a complex task.



Q4: Now I notice that the Brockham licence, in which Alba Mineral Resources has a 5% interest and is next to Horse Hill, is being drilled before the end of this year. What value did you put your 5th May note to the Brockham interest?

A4: At the time there wasn’t really much information available on Brockham so in that note we valued the Brockham field along with Alba’s Greenland graphite project at just a low figure of about $1 million which is relatively small compared to the value that we put on Horse Hill which we put a value of about $328 million so that’s Alba’s interest in Horse Hill. So it is quite small, there was a technical report issued by Nutech last month so we’ve got that report now on the Brockham field which we can use to reassess the Brockham project interest. The Brockham licence itself is a much smaller licence than Horse Hill so we have to sort of factor that in as well so yes there is scope to improve that valuation for Brockham by quite a bit I would have thought.



Q5: Regarding the risk factors that you used to value Horse Hill, will the same ones be used to calculate a value for Brockham?

A5: Yes, good question really. I think the geology, given that it’s next door to Horse Hill, is believed to be very similar so I would think we’re going to use similar risk factors. Brockham itself is a production licence so you would think the development risks should be much less for Brockham than it is for Horse Hill because it should be easier, once you’ve actually discovered any further oil sources, to just add that to the existing production which they’ve been getting from that field so should be quite easy to do. Yes, I would have thought the development risk factor should be much less and also the oil value, maybe the recovery value might be a bit higher as well.

It’s quite interesting if you look on a Google map for where that Brockham project is, it looks like it’s just under about 200 metres away from a railway line so that gives them, if they do find oil when they drill, a development option. So instead of trucking oil off in trucks there’s maybe, if they find the real big discoveries, a potential maybe for having some sort of facility to link up to the railway line possibly, of course there’s also the option of having a pipeline but they would probably use that if they had a much bigger discovery, depends on what they find when they do the drilling there.

So yes on balance I think the risk factors will probably be much less than they are for Horse Hill Because it’s a production licence as opposed to an exploration licence although as I said it is a much smaller oil licence there.



Q6: Will you be calculating a new value for the graphite project in Greenland?

A6: as I said we did apply a nominal value to that project so there is an active expression going on at the moment so we need to see the results of those exploration work that they’re doing at the moment so I need to find out a bit more information about that. In addition, the graphite project in Greenland is also prospective with gold so there’s a potential there to be surprised perhaps when the further results come out and given that the project is also right on the southern tip of Greenland there is the opportunity there to explore it all year round. So I think there could be some surprises there perhaps, as I’ve said we would need to see more results from the exploration that’s ongoing at the moment I think before we come to any sort of valuation for that project.

[moneymunch] 28/12/2016 11:12

Alba Mineral Resources Plc Revised BUY note from Dowgate Capital

Posted by: giles.arbor 7th November 2016

Dowgate Capital said this morning that they have issued a revised ‘BUY’ research note for Alba Mineral Resources Plc (LON:ALBA), with a 14.7p price target.

“… Brockham side track well expected to be spudded within the next few weeks, Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA.L) will now be entering a more intensive and high impact newsflow period, which could create near term cash flow generation, with an immediate read across to the asset value and monetisation opportunities of the adjacent Horse Hill licences (lic.).”

“… Alba is uniquely placed as the only AIM listed company with direct interests in both Southern England Weald Basin plays Brockham and Horse Hill.”

“… also provides exposure to non oil interests, including its Amitsoq graphite and gold prospective project on the southern tip of Greenland. This asset has largely been overlooked by investors, as the Group’s oil interests have taken centre stage. Under a new deal announced on … ”

” … from Brockham and its impact upon Horse Hill, along with further exploration results from the Greenland and Ireland projects provide for an exciting newsflow period ahead. To this end we continue to recommend Alba Mineral Resources plc with a price target of 14.7p per share. ”

Newsflow Timetable (est.)
Brockham Side Track (Nov/Dec ‘16)
Graphite Survey Results (Nov/Dec ‘16)
Ireland Survey/Soil Results (Nov/Dec ‘16)
HH-1 well Approval Decision (Jan ‘17)
HH-1 well Production Tests (Q2/Q3 ‘17)

[moneymunch] 28/12/2016 09:43

Get Surrey

Energy company drilling for oil at Horse Hill applies for variation to permit

The Environment Agency is seeking views from the community and interested groups following energy company Horse Hill Development Limited’s application

By Mark Edwards

09:00, 28 DEC 2016

A public consultation has been launched after an energy company exploring for oil near Gatwick Airport applied to the Environment Agency for a variation to its permit.

Horse Hill Development Limited has submitted an application to vary its existing mining waste permit to manage wastes arising from the drilling of two boreholes at the Horse Hill site.

The application includes a request to carry out an extended well test.

Horse Hill Developments is a purpose limited company vehicle formed to drill the Horse Hill-1 well and appraise and develop any hydrocarbons found.

The company began flow testing exploration at the site in February.

The Environment Agency said if any variation is granted, the company will need to adhere strictly to the conditions set out in the permits, adding that this will “ensure the local community and environment are protected.”

An Environment Agency spokesman said: “It is the role of the Environment Agency to ensure that the environment is safeguarded during exploration for oil and gas.

"With this in mind, we must ensure all relevant information is considered before we make a final decision.

“We are consulting on the permit application until February 2 2017 to ensure that we have fully considered all views before determining the application for the variation of the mining waste permit.

“I encourage members of the local community to let us know their thoughts.”

The oil drilling has faced fierce public opposition with five people arrested following a protest at the site.

[moneymunch] 28/12/2016 09:00

HH-1 well testing was highly successful, producing record high flow rates of oil, but time constraints did not permit full evaluation of the productive potential of the reservoirs and hence additional testing is now planned, including the addition of a third Lower Kimmeridge Limestone.

Conditional on the results of this well testing, drilling of a HH-1 sidetrack well and of a new HH-2 well is planned.

A new planning application is being pursued with SCC in parallel with the necessary permit applications with the EA.

The planned Appraisal Project activities are in four phases:

Phase 1 - the carrying out of extended well tests ( EWTs ) and a short-term well test of the existing HH-1 well, to appraise the technical and commercial viability of the hydrocarbon accumulations discovered. Each of the well tests will involve a well workover, followed by flowing, pumping (as required) and pressure testing with the purpose of evaluating the characteristics of the oil resource that was discovered during the original exploration of HH-1;

Phase 2 – this is dependent on the outcome of Phase 1 and involves the drilling of a deviated sidetrack from the existing HH-1 borehole. This will be followed by the carrying out of an EWT of up to 75 days;

Phase 3 - this is also dependent on the outcome of Phase 1 and involves the drilling of a new appraisal well – Horse Hill-2 (“HH-2”) from the existing well pad. This will be followed by an EWT of up to 75 days;

Phase 4 - restoration of the site to agriculture and woodland;

Nevertheless, while recognising the planning requirement to restore the site, if the appraisal programme demonstrates commercial viability HHDL intends to submit a further planning application and EA permit application for a production phase in due course;

It should be noted that Phases 2 and 3 may be reversed depending on the outcomes of Phase 1.

[moneymunch] 22/12/2016 14:52

Today I had the great pleasure in speaking with Paul Vonk the MD of Angus Energy, As you will hear in the audio interview the company are making great progress given the short length of time listed. One of the main points to consider is the acute focus on relationships Angus hold with the regulators and relevant energy authority (OGA), Mr Vonk quells all confusion over authority and permitting questions which have appeared in the public domain by reemphasizing that Brockham holds a production license from the 1980’s after the well was drilled by BP, Angus are not drilling new wells but rather carrying out work on existing and currently producing assets. The company has a rig on site which would be standard to complete its OGA approved work program.

Angus intends to close of or abandon non core bore holes, whilst looking to enhance production at its primary Brockham assets. There are a number of modern techniques which the company hopes will give more subsurface data and information which shall help this process take place, operations are set to complete in or around mid/late January at which point the outcome will be announced in due course.

To conclude, the rig is on site and shall be used to complete a fully OGA approved work program, this work will include continued production from the Portland but also allow the company to better understand (Re-asses) the hydrocarbon potential Kimmeridge layers which had successfully flowed at Horsehill earlier in the year.

Certainly makes for an interesting few months…

[frjdnverijtnhj8568934] 21/12/2016 15:30

Don't call me Mr Stupidity.

[moneymunch] 21/12/2016 13:50

Lol so says Mr Stupidity himself, the resident sharebasher who told investors not to buy at sub 0.2p and sub .03p, and continues to deter, at a time when results from Brockham's sidetrack are close and the Greenland grahite/gold update is due. Gla holders...Alba have all the cash they need for their near term commitments, but no-one is going to mind if they decide to raise more funds following success at Brockham if it's for the development of their assests to increase shareholder value. ;-)

[frjdnverijtnhj8568934] 21/12/2016 12:01

well you think alba mkt cap is stupidly low but I think its stupidly high.

They placed shares for cash at 0.2p only 2 months ago.
3rd party valuations of their assets come out at 0.2p absolutely tops.
And worst of all they are burning through the small amount of cash they have left.
If the directors are not actively looking at placing new shares for more cash now they are not doing their jobs.

[yajnas01] 21/12/2016 11:20

hmmm... alba mkt cap stupidly low though...

how big an impact do you think brockham would have on alba.

say brockham is good, do you think alba will rise as much as angus?

[temmujin] 21/12/2016 09:28

oh well top up time then

[temmujin] 21/12/2016 09:28

the fall seems abit odd on low volume..talk about j boy MM crooks

[moneymunch] 20/12/2016 20:52

What's good for Angus is good for Alba, free flowing limestones will be a big deal, even on Alba's 5% interest, and it will galvanise market and investor interest on HH's EWT's planned Q1 2017, where Alba hold 9.75% and permit approval could arrive Mid January imho which will be well received.....and of course further added value from the Greenland's Graphite/Gold update, expected anytime now as well as the Zinc/lead Ireland prospect etc. Gla holders Significant upside beckons on good news from Brockham and Greenland. ;-)

[tmmalik] 20/12/2016 17:51

Angus will be much better in short term as their results are expected next month and if they be able to find commercial oil they will put oil into market early than ukog and Alba from HH.Long term Alba is better but short term Angus is good bet.

[wisteria2] 20/12/2016 11:35

First line of the next W GLA

[temmujin] 20/12/2016 11:28

they said it would only take a few days

[temmujin] 20/12/2016 11:28

rumour that brockham has just gushed...anyone confirm?

[yajnas01] 20/12/2016 10:14

guys - just wondering... is this better to be in than angus? i can't tell.

[moneymunch] 20/12/2016 09:23

Tree shake over. ...gla :-)

[temmujin] 19/12/2016 22:35

David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas 3h3 hours ago

Just spent an hour with #london city folk. They hate the fact that an #Aussie found massive #oil at Gatwick. Tough. Get over it.
4 replies 0 retweets 16 likes


David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas 3h3 hours ago

I plan to put a very revealing piece on my blog on UK oil on hxxp://DavidLenigas.com before Christmas. Will shock a few folk but the facts!

[moneymunch] 19/12/2016 21:51

David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas 3h3 hours ago

Just spent an hour with #london city folk. They hate the fact that an #Aussie found massive #oil at Gatwick. Tough. Get over it.
4 replies 0 retweets 16 likes


David Lenigas ‏@DavidLenigas 3h3 hours ago

I plan to put a very revealing piece on my blog on UK oil on hxxp://DavidLenigas.com before Christmas. Will shock a few folk but the facts!

[moneymunch] 19/12/2016 19:31

19/12/2016 16:25 7,500,000 0.4p

[moneymunch] 19/12/2016 17:24

Perfectly poised. Gla ;-)