Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[studentinvestor13] 12/6/2020 09:08

Placing done. Institutions cannot sell their allocation for at least 180 days

[galatea99] 12/6/2020 08:08

Et voilà, sans conséquence aucune!
Bonne journée, cher ami.

[trident5] 12/6/2020 07:51

Et voila - a placing!

[galatea99] 12/6/2020 06:58

They certainly seem to be hinting very strongly that expansion deals are already being progressed. It is certainly not a placing out of weakness but rather one aimed at setting up the business for accelerated growth. Let's see what the market thinks, however, given the Wall Street falls of yesterday.

[studentinvestor13] 12/6/2020 06:56

I'm interested in who the new institutions will be!

[qs99] 12/6/2020 06:47

Thanks eric and agree....let's see where the market take is in the first hour, usually a decent indicator.

[pireric] 12/6/2020 06:44

Morning all. My brief thoughts

Market cap all things equal of ~£48.5m on the other side of this, £12.5m net cash, and I'm hoping for durable post-tax profits of at least £5m for the next few years at a minimum before cash is re-invested for hopefully accretive use cases. Should be £7.5m - £10m post-tax profit this year

Looks good to me and a small discount is very helpful. This derisks the balance sheet further and more M&A would not shock me. As a covid beneficiary this should really demand a much higher rating than the market is giving credit especially with that potential balance sheet.

Eric

[frazboy] 12/6/2020 06:37

trident - well done, you called that one.

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 12/6/2020 06:36

will buy in the afternoon at 60p

[studentinvestor13] 12/6/2020 06:27

I will be taking up spme placing allocation with Primary Bid. The comments on current trading are still very good so why not take full advantage of this transformational trading period for the group and invest for long term growth. The discount is minimal too and it does not matter if the market cap is £40 or £47.5 when you're going to have a lot of net cash and turn over £10m+ of pre tax profit this year and hopefully 6+ into the future before we consider a return on the new cash to invest.

We know we are getting some new institutions on board because you dont get that level of discount unless they have already signed up!

And the market futures are up

[qs99] 12/6/2020 06:21

Anyone think that this has been held back by MMs on the knowledge of the upcoming placing which must IMO have taken a few weeks to plan at least? It doesn't really as many of us have posted, reflect the underlying prospects of the business so I wonder whether this will start motoring now this growth placing is out of the way?

DYOR

[qs99] 12/6/2020 06:13

Good morning team AIR. Lovely sunny day.

Placing at almost a zip discount to market. Personally I see this as super positive as the reasons for the placing are ALL growth related, no "repayment of debt" etc etc:

-- Significant government and commercial work;
-- Attraction of key talent with books of business across the air charter industry; and
-- Opening new office locations, in geographies where the market fundamentals are strong.

I wonder if they do have teams or individuals lined up for the 2nd bullet point. A really unusual one in my experience to put into and RNS as super hard to do.

1st bullet IMO again, suggests they can't keep up with the demand, again IMO this is super bullish given the PBT they are currently making

3rd bullet as well sounds good for organic growth.

So let's see how market digests it. If they go up I may tuck in on the primary bid option, but quite frankly with such a minimal discount, you may as well buy in market if you can, but I sense, that discount suggests demand is there and this will be a blue day......let's hope so....

DYOR and all IMO....

[studentinvestor13] 11/6/2020 16:44

The RCF has been drawn down at 11.5 for a while QS, even early this year pre pandemic when their cash balance was not high. It doesn't make sense to pay down the RCF with the available cash when most companies are taking out overdrafts and new banking facilities for flexibility. They are looking after working capital tightly as they have said

[onthemarblecliffs] 11/6/2020 15:22

I think the cash is there just in case. Who knows when you might need it and if the banks suddenly become unhelpful, as in 2008-09?
Current cash flow appears strong, given net debt has reduced by £11.9m ytd versus PBT of £7.5m.

[muckshifter] 11/6/2020 15:16

Perhaps it's just a prudent move, with the RCF almost certainly based on libor plus a small percentage, which must mean absolutely minimal interest requirements, in extremely uncertain times. Presumably the very low interest rate will be maintained until the economy begins to make a serious recovery, after which the risk of any form of economic disaster should hopefully disappear, together with the very low libor, and the need for a decent chunk of RCF. In the meantime it certainly takes away some of the risk of an increasing workload raising working capital requirements.

[qs99] 11/6/2020 14:50

Just musing: AIR has drawn down a big old chunk of their RCF despite having a big cash balance (and growing) excl customer money etc. Do people think this is due to investment into working capital and cash on hand for future trading as they are so busy, otherwise why keep the RCF drawn down and not use the cash to reduce it?

[qs99] 11/6/2020 14:28

Indeed. May drift a little unless tipped until the next update IMO......At what point if you are approaching half way through the year, will they have to bite the bullet and do a "Materially ahead of market expectations" RNS do we think?

GLA and DYOR

[discodave4] 11/6/2020 13:36

Blimey, have to be quick, unfortunately can't keep my eye on it all day.Well done for those catching the dip.

[qs99] 11/6/2020 13:16

bouncy bouncy as they say. Few small buyers nudging it back up again.....and stretch off

[discodave4] 11/6/2020 12:55

Fair points, I'm new to AIR and it's liquidity!.

[studentinvestor13] 11/6/2020 12:39

Poeple with twitchy fingers selling across the market today and looking to bank profits and lots who bought lower are in profit here.

The smart money like John Lee knows this is still very undervalued and no reason to give away £s for 50p

[discodave4] 11/6/2020 12:37

Student Didn't actually say that, was simply running with what QS mentioned.So why is this down so much?

[qs99] 11/6/2020 12:36

Am fully loaded SI, no more for me for the time being!

A few chunkyish sells gone through, maybe suppressing price let's see.

[studentinvestor13] 11/6/2020 12:29

You think the market is that clever day one of drops Dave? You are overestimating people and their panic factor. It just dropped 5% on a few trades on zilch.

I'm buying this dip like I've bought many before. A great opportunity in a stock which will get turbocharged by a second wave and is well undervalued if we don't

This reminds me of the dips on the way up from 17

[discodave4] 11/6/2020 10:40

Down on FED's outlook with respect to the impact of the pandemic, which is a massive positive for here so not too certain why such a drop.