Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 22/5/2020 09:21

Well note at end says that if acquisition had been in full year it would have delivered near £1m of PBT....so that would have to be a massive destruction of value no? DYOR

[trident5] 22/5/2020 09:13

QS99 - Safety and Security lost money for the year - this is where their acquisitions sit. They've been a terrible value destroyer for shareholders.
The accounts re-affirm that acquisition remains an ongoing strategy to (i) diversify the business, and (ii) to enable cross-selling.

Acquisitions that then generate losses destroy value for shareholders, shareholders can diversify - it's not a valid strategy for managements - which just leaves cross selling.

If post-covid there isn't a well run, profitable business here the share price has got ahead of itself. The 2020 accounts are not a good read.

I doubt there's sufficient liquidity to easily build a disclosable short position.

[qs99] 22/5/2020 08:56

new deal contributed very little to last year, will provide hopefully more this year.....likewise back end of notes talks of assumptions that earn-out measures will still be met is quite a big one IMO....

DYOR, go short if you want Haywards26 and cfro, otherwise what are you on here for?

Zero shorts shown on short tracker....

DYOR

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 08:32

The CEO has been in post years and talking about transformation...transformation from himself!? It really is a nonsense.

Like many company announcements, it is all spin and buzz words. You have to be able to read between the lines and interpret...CEO's are like story tellers.

[cfro] 22/5/2020 08:16

Completely agree Haywards26, todays results were not very good. Q1 will likely not be repeated then where will they be? The sector as a whole is looking pretty dire..

[qs99] 22/5/2020 08:16

Some proof may come post management IR with city / instis and whether they suddenly run for the hills or it produces some new buying.....hope for some share tips catching up on this as well....

DYOR

[qs99] 22/5/2020 08:15

No positive indicators other than underlying EBIT OK, Gross margins up 1 point, operating cash flows OK.....

look I'm not saying either mistakes haven't been made, or that management don't need to improve and pull their finger out to generate better returns, BUT your take on this year and underlying "value" IMO is just wrong.....

DYOR

[markie7] 22/5/2020 08:11

exactly qs99. they invested in a business that has done well post acquisition, and won new contracts since. key is operating cash flow. if you read the going concern note states clearly that the bank is fine with the group until mid / late 2021.

there simply aren't any solvency / capital raising concerns here.

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 08:11

Yes Covid will bolster significantly, but without COVID AP were going one way, all indicators pointing downwards..No positive metrics in last years numbers in any way..

Covid impact will not be there to turn the numbers around for anything other than a few months (6 months tops), then without a second wave it will be back to normal.

[qs99] 22/5/2020 08:08

That's because £7.5m was spend on the deal. Over £9m cash flow from operations last year if you read the cash flow.....

£1.7m net cash end of Q1 FY21 and £16.2m of facilities available.

May and June could bolster that materially IMO.

DYOR how does moving from net debt after M&A at year end to net cash show "weakening"......answers on a post card ta.

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 08:01

Positive cash inc debt the year before, negative £6.9m last year..weakening..

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:59

weakening balance sheet when they are in net cash position per the RNS now and with c.£16m of facilities? That weakened balance sheet?

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 07:59

QS99, most of the so called office openings are not new, they are reopening of previously closed offices that did not perform..

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 07:57

One final point the CEO talks about 2019 being a transformational year!!..transformational from what and in what way!?

It appears he has just continued taking AP down the narrow road of diversification, weakening the balance sheet with low income health and safety type investments..

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:56

I like this bit "Investment made in three new offices in Houston (Q1), Singapore (Q1) and Dubai (Q4)" also USA motoring last year, so IF it can keep a lid on costs, it should in theory open up new markets and revenue organically...

I can totally understand pre GE and Brexit uncertainty killing off a lot of spending, it did across umpteen different industries.

[trident5] 22/5/2020 07:56

Agreed - looks like Covid has dug them out of a hole. Business looks like it would benefit from some new blood at the top.

[haywards26] 22/5/2020 07:51

I don’t want to harp on but blaming Brexit for freight activity reductions in 2019 is a cop out..Brexit brought many freight opportunities across the sector as large companies and governments looked to secure capacity against a backdrop of uncertainty..again this shows AP’s freight department to be below par and weak..

Last financials are truly awful on all metrics, profit, revenue, cash..

AP are being saved temporarily by Covid..maybe £1 possible..but these are one offs..April and May will not be repeated without a second wave..

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:47

I like the fact they will update market every 4-6 weeks. Gives investors plenty of opportunity to duck in / out and monitor progress. Not great for more "normal" times as boards have better things to do (!), but in these circumstances its great.

[markie7] 22/5/2020 07:43

they are just being cautious about the outlook because they can't believe what is happening. they are trying to keep a lid on it externally as the consequences of extrapolation on the valuation and the consequent volatility are extreme and unhelpful. A board would be cautious in that scenario.

The point will come though where they can't hide the facts - hence today talking about May and June for the first time.

companies have cancelled dividends due to uncertainty about the future - NOT necessarily anything to do with the underlying balance sheets in many many cases.

[tomps2] 22/5/2020 07:36

AIR overview FY20 & outlook video with CEO, Mark Briffa.

Strong start FY21. Trading ahead of budget in May, encouraging order book June. Visibility limited.

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:28

haha, freedom I agree. Sorry cfro, but nearly All businesses are cancelling divi, why wouldn't you? Also a great opportunity to look at cost base and sort.

Of course the future is uncertain, but people want to travel, fact, and HNW can afford AIR fact, they will not want to travel business, FACT, private charter IMO will be fine.

I think the super profits will edge down I agree with that, but given their delivery, govt contacts I am sure they will serve AIR very well in the future to help out where needs be.

DYOR as ever, have topped up this morning and reckon this should IMO trend to well over a quid. Let's see...

[freedom1303] 22/5/2020 07:25

Clueless.com.

[cfro] 22/5/2020 07:19

You are all making too many assumptions. They have intimated that the future is uncertain and cancelled the dividend to conserve cash. That tells you a lot.

The £6m made in q1 is a one off as they have said cannot see any visibility for continued levels of freight beyond H1. You simply cant just assume they will be busy with private charter after that. The world is too uncertain, the sector is too uncertain.

On the figures basic eps was down a whopping 89%. This financial year will almost certainly be loss making.