Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:16

Personally think this could bag from here and still only be on 6-7 X potential FY EBITDA...let's see....DYOR as ever, I'm probably overly optimistic.....

[qs99] 22/5/2020 07:04

well up nearly 10% on the open suggests market like it IMO....DYOR

[qs99] 22/5/2020 06:50

Agreed Markie7.....

[markie7] 22/5/2020 06:49

Market cap of £37m . For a covid benefitting stock that has made £6m in 3 months. Just the wrong price. Should rise significantly

[qs99] 22/5/2020 06:48

cfro really? Blimey.

Last year's results IMO are irrelevant. £6m profit, May and June look like they could be super profit months as well,if there is a 2nd wave, AIR have shown what they can do, built trust and contacts to deliver.

HNW will use AIR IMO rather than risk business class in main airlines which are not flying at mo anyway.....H2 is the unknown, but with cash generation good (bottom of notes talks of being in a net cash position now) and the going concern note was interesting and looks fine DYOR but this could end up being on an EV/EBITDA ratio of very low single digits this year......

DYOR let's see if market thinks the same. Well done AIR

[ntv] 22/5/2020 06:45

Massive profit so far this year, almost £6m and May profits are ahead of forecasts
An interesting company
cfro
You need to read the whole report rather than the first few lines

[markie7] 22/5/2020 06:45

You need to read current trading . That is a complete miss-reading of the statement. £6m PBT in first 3 months. Massive May. June looking decent. This company is basically a haulier for PPE in a transport market that is highly stressed. Perfect covid play

[freedom1303] 22/5/2020 06:45

Think you need to learn how to read! £6.0m profit Q1 and materially ahead of budget in May and June....shares will start to properly rerate in the months ahead particularly once the private charter divison takes off with people preferring that to Easyjet or Ryanair.

[cfro] 22/5/2020 06:37

Some pretty poor results, and that was even before the crisis really kicked off. The whole sector is clearly in a bad way. Dividend cancelled.

[qs99] 21/5/2020 09:33

well that is a very big vote of confidence IMO, wasn't me!

[galatea99] 20/5/2020 12:13

Buy from yesterday reported only today, 100k shares at 80p.

[qs99] 20/5/2020 09:42

reckon it must have been a "worked" order maybe of size? DYOR

[steeplejack] 20/5/2020 09:40

At the end of April, the Group has normalised cash in the bank of GBP13m, excluding significant customer deposits and JetCard cash. The Group has access to a total debt facility of GBP14.5m, comprising of a GBP1.5m overdraft and a GBP13m revolving credit facility (RCF), which is drawn down by GBP11.5m as at 1 May 2020. The RCF is due to expire in February 2023.

[qs99] 20/5/2020 09:32

haha, bloody hope not and really cannot see the logic if it did happen given the profits is says it is making!!

[trident5] 20/5/2020 09:28

Here comes that placing.

[qs99] 19/5/2020 16:21

thanks pod, so on that basis you could argue that if May was same as April, that company in H1 would be pushing way north of £10m....DYOR, but that is a serious PBT when compared to the market cap and de-leveraging potential........DYOR

[galatea99] 19/5/2020 16:18

"Government still seeking to repatriate 20,000 Britons stranded overseas
Charter flights and commercial routes will be used, but those returning will need to be quarantined for 14 days

About 20,000 British travellers are still stuck overseas almost two months after the lockdown was first imposed, ministers have admitted.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said that the government was seeking to repatriate remaining Britons using a combination of charter flights and commercial routes.

It is likely that some of those stuck abroad will have to quarantine for two weeks when they return to the UK under plans to impose blanket restrictions on arrivals. The measures are likely to be imposed in less than a fortnight, meaning that large numbers of returning Britons are likely to be affected."

[podgyted] 19/5/2020 11:07

The company has committed to "later this month" and I expect them to run this to the wire so they can give as much outlook detail and a reasonable stab at May. There is also a possibility, and I mean possibility, that they have not totally ruled out a final dividend.

Been comparing (again) the RNS of 1/4/20 with that of 5/5/20.

April:-

"The current indication is that the Group has delivered around £2.4m of underlying profit before tax in the first two months of the year..."
"At the end of March, the Group has normalised cash in the bank of £6.5m, excluding significant customer deposits and JetCard cash. The Group has access to a total debt facility of £14.5m, comprising of a £1.5m overdraft and a £13m revolving credit facility (RCF), which is drawn down by £11.5m as at 1 April 2020. "

May:-

"The Group has had a strong start to the financial year, with the unaudited accounts for February, March and April showing expected underlying profit before tax of £6m."
"At the end of April, the Group has normalised cash in the bank of £13m, excluding significant customer deposits and JetCard cash. The Group has access to a total debt facility of £14.5m, comprising of a £1.5m overdraft and a £13m revolving credit facility (RCF), which is drawn down by £11.5m as at 1 May 2020."

So in April generated £3.6m Pbt and £6.5m in cash - the latter will include a catch-up from working capital caused by the increased volume. (It is worth noting that last year's final dividend cost only £2m.)

Would expect May to have a similar profit potential - but after that - who knows? But with that sort of start to the year you would have thought they will increase profits for the full year rather than the forecast fall - BWDIK.

Interesting - so I've built a small stake. DYOR and NAI.

[markie7] 19/5/2020 07:34

thank you to all the clearly very well informed posters on here. excellent work. big rise today.

[qs99] 19/5/2020 07:28

also any views on April and May? Most countries are opening up very gradually and flights are still in the majority grounded.....not sure IMO that will change until July, so H1 should IMO be bumper profit time. If £6m made Q1 and Feb was not full lockdown, then is it safe to assume that Q2 could do the same making c.£12m underlying PBT for H1?

Guidance for H2 will be key, but again should the cash flows on this H1 not support a reduction in the RCF materially?

With market cap of c.£40m, could EV/EBITDA ratios come into play and why not put it on a forward multiple of 6+? While the super profits may not go on forever, a "normal" IMO won't be back for a while either. And if we have a 2nd wave in Autumn/Winter......

anyway, DYOR, be interested in all views, but could this be materially North of £1 after its May 2020 update due?

Cheers
QS99

[qs99] 19/5/2020 07:20

Results were 9th May last year, they talked of update "later this month" any views on when this will be?

DYOR

[qs99] 19/5/2020 07:17

off again this am....

[qs99] 18/5/2020 16:52

Nice close of play rise.....chugging along nicely to get back to that quid....DYOR

[galatea99] 15/5/2020 20:20

From twitter;

"Another Dreamliner with PPE products bound for Europe, loaded in China and ready to go. Our Freight team continues to assist with critical charter flights across the globe."