Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[trident5] 11/6/2020 10:45

DYOR? Does your research process in determining that Aberforth have "shown a line of stock" to MMs involve dipping a ladle into a bucket of BS?

The markets are down mate.

[qs99] 11/6/2020 10:39

Not sure FTSE which is resource dominated has a big effect, but I get the gist, still reckon Aberforth have shown a line of stock to MMs....DYOR

[studentinvestor13] 11/6/2020 10:06

Look at the ftse100 for your answer

[qs99] 11/6/2020 10:03

Aberforth off loading again?

[qs99] 10/6/2020 08:36

confident enough I have added (again) to my not insubstantial holding here....I genuinely sense another bagger from here....DYOR...good days all.

[qs99] 10/6/2020 08:33

thanks for the ft link. IMO, as with others on this board, it is just the wrong price IMO.....DYOR

[galatea99] 10/6/2020 07:00

From FT this morning:

"By contrast, there are always a few businesses which benefit from dark times. It’s an ill wind that blows no good, as the saying goes. In the early stages of Covid-19, Air Partner fell to 17p as all airline-associated stocks plunged. However, it has clearly had an excellent start to the year, with the company heavily involved in organising repatriation flights and facilitating the worldwide freight movement of PPE and industrial parts.

As a broking business with relatively stable overheads, increased activity quickly flows to the bottom line, boosting both profits and cash. Unsurprisingly AP shares have taken off and are now around 80p. Hopefully, there should be further to go — including, perhaps, a resumption of dividends."

[studentinvestor13] 09/6/2020 17:36

Private jet activity is the real V shape rather than the economy. Argus data shows against May at 53% it was at nearly 90% of last years levels as of only 2 days ago and we know from enquiries that the July and August is looking good. What a year this will crack up to be having already done £7.5m in the first four months of their year!

[studentinvestor13] 09/6/2020 15:15

Another dip to be buying with glee against a march much higher. From reading around, group charter must be getting very popular with corporates and the service AIP is laying on with logistics and medical support sounds top class.

[discodave4] 08/6/2020 17:58

Guessing this was the Mike Hill article (apologies for some reason couldn't see all of Galatea's post/link):HTTPS://www.cargonewswire.com/cargo-charters-standing-right-on-the-frontline-to-fight-covid-19/

[studentinvestor13] 08/6/2020 15:31

Nice Galatea. 150p is the golden zone

[discodave4] 07/6/2020 15:17

Where?, Was there a link?Thanks

[galatea99] 07/6/2020 13:08

Lots of comment here from Mike Hill, Director-Group Freight. It seems that business is still booming with the routes changing as the successive outbreaks of the Chinese virus (true description, isn't it?) roll around every part of the world:

[discodave4] 05/6/2020 23:22

Thanks.Been researching a bit more, so basically they are brokers, they charter the planes from third party's and then charter to customers, so they are asset light with low operating costs. Yes have a good weekend too.

[studentinvestor13] 05/6/2020 23:00

Welcome, yes I hold and good weekend to you

[discodave4] 05/6/2020 22:27

Ps my apologies I've now read some of the posts here and see that you are a holder.

[discodave4] 05/6/2020 22:23

Thanks, will admit the oil price impact was an afterthought, so fair point.One thing though, for the past two years H2 has only generated £1.2m and £1.6m so I used the mid point, thus my year end is not as high as yours.That said I had 140p to 160p on quick calculations and appreciate that you agree it's fair and I'm not missing something or dreaming!.Can I ask, do you hold here?.

[studentinvestor13] 05/6/2020 22:02

I think you are getting confused Disco. This is not an airline so oil is not a factor at all. They are the middle men.

First four months were £7.5m. If you go back to the traditional run rate of AIP you are back to £6m a year. That drop back there is not going to happen because airline capacity won't reach 2019 for at least 2 to 3 years IMVHO and I think there will be long lasting changes in how people travel (more charter).

I don't agree with your method but if I wanted to use them.... First four months 7.5, visibility for June so say another 1.5 and then assume rest of 7 months of the year brings in 3.5m in total giving pre-tax profit of 12.5.

That gives 19p of earnings per share this year.

To summarise. I would not use this method but 150p is fair value on cautious assumptions IMVHO. This will grind and grind away until we get close to there and if any major economies get a second wave, Kaboom!

It is a long term COVID beneficiary and it is barely above where it was before COVID because the market didn't understand what the company was and how it would benefit!

[discodave4] 05/6/2020 21:54

Ps I suppose operating costs could be a significant factor if oil keeps going up as it has been.

[discodave4] 05/6/2020 21:47

Probably going to repeat what's already been posted, but would appreciate feedback as to whether or not I've got it completely wrong or dreaming.Based on the first 4 months underlying pre tax profit of £7.5m, and assuming H2 is "normal" say £1.4m then even for 10 months of profit generation thats say £8.9m for the year, more than double last year. Call it at least £10m and that should be at least 14p to 16p eps, even on a PE of 10 means this should be 140p to 160p.Appreciate there is no vision for the remainder of the year and there may be, or is likely to be, further impairments, but even so.

[qs99] 05/6/2020 16:01

Pushing back again to hit new recent highs....good weekends all

[qs99] 05/6/2020 09:22

Nice recovery...let's hope that seller piece has cleared and off we go again

[qs99] 04/6/2020 14:29

Agreed, which is why I have loaded up again today. I sense the Aberforth off-loading isn't helping it get back to a rating that reflects these "super profit" times.....let's see...have a good evening SI

QS99

[studentinvestor13] 04/6/2020 14:25

I've been adding today but it is the first non-dip I have been buying. It is undervalued by a big margin but not enough investors have yet come across it. I wonder if this will get tipped by smart folk who realise it is not only a great trading environment but if we get a second wave an even better bet.

[qs99] 04/6/2020 14:18

well that is another chunk off loaded by Aberforth, do they want to shove the other 9.9% away or will they hold? Hope AIR Board can attract new insti to take them off the shareholder list if necessary