Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[studentinvestor13] 04/6/2020 10:51

What a waste of everyones time N+1 are. I can read the RNS you don't need to regurgitate it for me and to top it off theres no proper market estimates around. This allows us smart folk to actually read news releases and get in way before people read the interims and think wow ;)

[robinnicolson] 04/6/2020 10:32

Here's N+1 Singer on today's update:

"Air Partner has released a further shareholder update, confirming that the business has continued to perform well ahead of budget in May. For the first four months of the year to May, the unaudited management accounts show an expected underlying PBT of £7.5m, up from £6.0m in Q1. This strong performance has been predominantly driven by high levels of activity in the Freight and Group Charter divisions. The forward order book for June is also strong, with continued demand for Freight and Group Charter services. Visibility beyond June remains limited. Performance in H2 will likely depend upon a recovery in activity levels in Private Jets and Safety & Security, with crisis work expected to slow down. As highlighted in the results, the Group is already seeing some early signs of recovery within Private Jets and Safety & Security. Management recognises the challenges ahead and continues to tightly control costs and prioritise preservation of cash. At the end of May, Air Partner had cash in the bank of £16.5m (exc. customer deposits and JetCard) and has drawn down £11.5m of its £13m RCF. We believe the Group is well placed to achieve a strong FY21 given the diversity of its model and the strength of the balance sheet."

[qs99] 04/6/2020 10:26

Anyone know of new broker notes or not?

[mnomis] 04/6/2020 08:53

Venek - any thoughts? I did try to help you by explaining that perhaps you had got this one wrong and it was not too late to make some money?

[markie7] 04/6/2020 08:21

really doesn't matter what the price was 2 months ago. irrelevant. this is a new totally disrupted air market, and these guys are going to make an absolute fortune

[qs99] 04/6/2020 08:15

And your point is? It was oversold and on recent PBT upgrades IMO is still good value and I bought more first thing to put my money where my mouth is!! Dyor

[trident5] 04/6/2020 07:39

It is up over 4 fold in just over 2 months.

[qs99] 04/6/2020 07:13

really hasn't moved much at all, and having stocked up on some more this morning am being offered below the price quoted suggesting IMO there is plenty of stock around which is odd, would think it would be hard to get hold of given that RNS!

DYOR and let's see if we can breach a quid over the coming days

[qs99] 04/6/2020 07:08

Agreed Markie and SI yes I get your drift, maybe I'm blinking as can't believe it....!

Not sure market has really woken up to this yet...

DYOR

[markie7] 04/6/2020 06:47

All, I don't think I can remember such an RNS. The only reason they are caveating H2 is that they can't really believe it. Literally probably the biggest valuation gap I have ever seen - even if they progress at half the rate they are for H2 this will make c.£15m - with a closing run rate of c.£10m. This is simply the wrong valuation.

[studentinvestor13] 04/6/2020 06:43

QS read the RNS again. It's incredibly bullish on second take and more so that on my first take. If the stars all align perfectly, they could do fifteen to twenty million PBT this year and imagine what the net cash position is on the other side of that.

[qs99] 04/6/2020 06:37

Yup, should be a bagger from here IMO....DYOR

[studentinvestor13] 04/6/2020 06:37

That's pretty amazing. Another £1.5m into the kitty PBT so looking at 9m to 9.5 mill in the first half of their fiscal year alone. I am a firm believer in a second wave but ignore that potential and we are still headed for something like £12m - £14m PBT IMVHO. They are 4 months in and already at 7.5m!

Our net cash minus drawn RCF has gone from 13 - 11.5 at end of april to 16.5 - 11.5 at the end of May

Run the same math as I did before. End the year with 6m net cash. Normal PAT from next year of 6m now IMO. 12x * 6 + 7.... You can very easily get to a £80m market cap.... 150p is a nice round target.

[qs99] 04/6/2020 06:36

surprised by the drop yesterday given this no?

[qs99] 04/6/2020 06:16

OK, so RNS. Heads up!

£7.5m PBT Feb through May DYOR etc....."strong" June, so let's assume same as May which by default should be c.£1.5m so c.£8m in H1.....could this carry on? Usual caveats by company, but let's assume it does half that in H2, that is £12m PBT....with cash which should mean net cash position by year end IMO.....

So £40m market cap, vs £12m PBT potential for the year....when will upgrades come?

Yes it could be a big "one off year" but, what is the "new normal"? 2nd wave comes in and off we go again? Those using AIR if they have a good experience may want slightly lower prices but may continue to use them and as air travel goes up again, private charters may increase.

Views?

DYOR
Cheers
QS99

[studentinvestor13] 03/6/2020 21:07

Just keep buying the dips here I think given this is inexpensive but when you 3-4 bag from the lows it's not going to be a smooth upward path as people want to take profits



Some more examples of the diversity of demands that won't be changing any time this year IMO

[markie7] 03/6/2020 19:53

big buying opportunity if this price is around tomorrow. absurdly cheap under 80p

[trident5] 03/6/2020 19:31

I thought the "buy" and "sell" markers were just guesses. Doesn't the price action suggest there was more selling than buying?

[galatea99] 03/6/2020 18:32

These two trades were posted very late, some time after the market close.
They are at prices well out of the range of the prices quoted which are the closing prices.
When first posted, at 5pm or so, they were marked as neither buys nor sells, instead they were described as "unknown".
Only some time later was this changed to "Buy".

03-Jun-20 15:10:25 80.00 62,180 Buy* 73.20 79.80 49.74k O
03-Jun-20 13:54:20 82.00 952,952 Buy* 73.20 79.80 781.42k O

The trade for 953k shares was at the same price and at the same time as the trade for 1m shares so they must be from the same source. So close to 2m shares seem to have changed hands at 82p. The MM's would almost certainly not have taken these kinds of volumes on their books. However, the 2m shares must have found a ready buyer. The combined total of these two trades, close to 2m shares, amounts to about 3.6% of AIR's share capital.

Now what it all means.............That is the question,

[qs99] 03/6/2020 15:58

Lets' see if red or blue tomorrow...

[galatea99] 03/6/2020 15:47

Certainly do look like buys, going by the trades there were when the quoted buy and sell prices were the same:

03-Jun-20 14:08:05 80.00 4,888 Sell* 80.00 83.80 3,910 A
03-Jun-20 14:07:45 80.0001 10,000 Sell* 80.00 83.80 8,000 O
03-Jun-20 13:58:33 80.456 1,713 Sell* 80.00 83.80 1,378 O
03-Jun-20 13:54:28 82.00 1,000,000 Buy* 80.00 83.80 820.00k O
03-Jun-20 13:14:09 82.812 1,796 Buy* 80.00 83.80 1,487 O
03-Jun-20 12:48:41 82.00 5,000 Buy* 80.00 83.80 4,100 A

No reason to give such a high price, 82p, if it was a huge sell.

[qs99] 03/6/2020 15:35

No idea. Slightly spooked by level of drop, but director purchases and underlying case for me is still there....lets see DYOR...

[galatea99] 03/6/2020 15:26

Is that a purchase of 1m shares @ 82p?
And two more of 50k each?
Shown as "buys".

03-Jun-20 13:54:28 82.00 1,000,000 Buy* 80.00 83.80 820.00k

03-Jun-20 12:53:45 82.00 50,000 Buy* 77.00 79.80 41.00k
03-Jun-20 12:53:39 82.00 50,000 Buy* 77.00 79.80 41.00k

[qs99] 03/6/2020 14:02

Profit taking?

[studentinvestor13] 02/6/2020 07:58

Well that is the upside. I don't know how high it can go but I know what looks minimally reasonable.