Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[venek] 26/6/2019 15:30

AGM voting turn out drops for 2nd year (33% down on 2017), another sign of low investor enthusiasm and poor investor relations efforts by AP.

For the second year the biggest minority reticence is to approve the accounts (up at 5.58% against vs 5.00% last year). The shadow of the accounting anomalies is cast long.

The next greatest reticence was to approve the Directors' remuneration policy. Enough said.

[venek] 26/6/2019 10:39

If 'major' means big and long term then that would have been known about at the start of the year (unless AP have failed to meet deadlines) so why only reveal the caveat now? One reason would be that other hoped for new business was slow to emerge so far. If these 'major' contracts are new, remember what has been announced, nothing beyond a couple of airline liaison service jobs that you would think would be invoiced monthly. Again AP rhetoric does not compute.

Warner's first words were "the operating environment remains challenging, impacted by increasing protectionism, Brexit and headwinds across the global aviation industry". Typical AP, always start with an excuse. If the second half is poor they will blame the state of the world and can spin that as a fair warning in 6 months.

The share price is 30% lower than 1 year ago. Selling has been steady not sudden.

[psync] 26/6/2019 10:10

"...profits are likely to be more weighted to the second
half than in previous years, owing to the timing of major contracts"

Don't let that get in the way of good bout of panic selling however.

[venek] 26/6/2019 09:58

In his AGM statement the Chairman plays the the market volatility (aka choppiness) card to say the first half of the year profit has not been good but as if Newtonian physics applied, the second will so good it will make up for it.

But only moments before he said Brexit was a factor and is that going the be settled in their second half year?

[venek] 25/6/2019 17:33

The $1.9 billion revenue US giant Oliver Wyman, who bought BS competitor Avisa and poached BS's long term Head of Business Development, is not the only larger company buying into aviation consulting. Accenture bought a company called Seabury in 2017 as well.
www.consultancy.uk/news/13005/accenture-acquires-aviation-consulting-business-of-seabury

AP’s consulting business is far smaller than these multi-national consulting houses that cover a wider range of aviation consulting.

BS are vulnerable to being continuously nibbled from below by smaller lighter-footed boutique consultancies with a higher quality of expertise too, and every zero-time associate they have is a potential competitor.

It’s the same in training, with giants like CAE, L3, Raytheon and Pennant with big training business, universities and even regulators who are selling training in competition, and there are minimal barriers to entry for individual trainers.

Training and consulting is Biffa’s unicorn project. It is a diversion not a strategy.

What will come out at the AGM? More sunny platitudes and cosmetics like a rebrand?

[venek] 24/6/2019 15:51

A further sign of how poorly Baines Simmonds is performing for AP, is if you check their FEEFO online rating page you will see they have just 100 responses in a year. This is from what they claim is “over 4,000” students (down from the average of 10,000 per annum claimed when AP bought BS). Overall the scores from the 100 aren't that bad but don’t justify the BS website claim that “Independently ranked by FEEFO, we've consistently achieved 100% client satisfaction.” When you have a look you can find some of the recent names match the names of BS employees too!

BS have also announced a 10% cut in course fees in July and August, having done something similar in December and January (a cycle they have repeated for at least 1 year before). With sales running for 1/3 of the year they are bordering on being like a sofa showroom! This is a sign that the company that bought into consultancy and training to offset the choppiness of the charter market have just bought into revenue stability born from routine discounting. As a company with a pool of zero-time associates who only get paid when used, this discounting suggests either a desperate desire to maintain cash flow or the workload for the already depleted pool of staff consultants is so low in these 4 months that BS are desperate to keep them busy, even if its doing discounted courses

Training and consulting is not the easy, stable money-maker Biffa claims.

[venek] 23/6/2019 15:01

The Sunday Times reports that the SFO arrested and questioned five people last week in a joint operation with police from Hertfordshire, Leicestershire and Scotland Yard as part of their investigation into the Patisserie Valerie accounting affair.

Yet AP seem content there is no criminal investigation to hold those responsible for the deliberate, systematic, rogue actions that they say occurred for, as yet publicly unspecified reasons, which resulted in a loss of over £25 million of AP shareholder value when they were finally uncovered.

[venek] 20/6/2019 11:24

Either. Poor management, poor execution and a clouded vision are holding AP back.

AGM is next week. Shareholders have a choice to stay silent or be assertive.

[pvb] 20/6/2019 10:53

...And is your opinion that that would give it a better, more successful long term future as a growing company; or a more suitable company for eventual takeover?

[venek] 18/6/2019 13:11

Since AP make the excuse, when it suits (i.e. only when things go down, as they claim the credit when things are on the up), that charter brokering is a choppy business there is something to be said about being part of a bigger, stable group rather than trying to use a very small basket of consultancies as a flotation aid.

AP's share price remains two thirds of what it was before last year's revelations.
Yet that didn't attract ASG to make an offer.

Only the wildly optimistic would assume ASG purchase of CF would embolden suitors for AP.

AP's management team have so far failed to capitalise on their own acquisitions. So change the managers or abandon the vanity acquisitions (but probably both).

[pvb] 18/6/2019 11:49

Their main business areas include aircraft MRO, aviation training, IT solutions, VIP charter and aircraft management, ground handling & fueling, aviation personnel resourcing, flights service solutions and tourism. Subsidiaries included: Baltic Ground Services (BGS), Baltic Ground Services Sp.z.o.o (BGS PL), Locatory.com, BAA Training, AviationCV.com, KlasJet, Helisota, Laserpas, Kidy Tour, Jet Maintenance Solutions, Loop, FL Technics and its units : FL Technics Line, FL Technics Engineering, FL Technics Training, Storm Aviation.

So, a broader based business than simple air charter.

So a competitor is in the hands of a much larger and diverse aviation group with a track record of successful M&A.

Perhaps they might eventually buy out AIR? Perhaps that is what you seek? Do you feel that would be less or more likely if AIR stuck to its original guns - air charter - rather than broaden its business, which is what it is doing?

[venek] 18/6/2019 11:35

"perhaps something else..." like forgetting the competition aren't letting things slide.

Announced today: One of AP's main charter broker rivals, Chapman Freeborn, has been bought by the diverse Avia Solutions Group.

www.aircargonews.net/services/charter-company/chapman-freeborn-targets-growth-following-acquisition-by-avia-solutions/
hxxps://aviasg.com

The consolidated revenues of the two entities were €800 million for 2018 and are forecast to exceed €1bn in 2019. After the acquisition is completed, subject to customary approvals, Avia Solutions Group will own 66 companies in 26 countries worldwide, with approximately 3300 professionals in total.

Their main business areas include aircraft MRO, aviation training, IT solutions, VIP charter and aircraft management, ground handling & fueling, aviation personnel resourcing, flights service solutions and tourism. Subsidiaries included: Baltic Ground Services (BGS), Baltic Ground Services Sp.z.o.o (BGS PL), Locatory.com, BAA Training, AviationCV.com, KlasJet, Helisota, Laserpas, Kidy Tour, Jet Maintenance Solutions, Loop, FL Technics and its units : FL Technics Line, FL Technics Engineering, FL Technics Training, Storm Aviation.

So a competitor is in the hands of a much larger and diverse aviation group with a track record of successful M&A.

[pvb] 15/6/2019 17:48

@Veneck
Rather slack of them when Richard was already in his 70s. Perhaps something else that slid while they coped with the historic AP accounting disaster.

Perhaps this, perhaps that, perhaps something else...

[venek] 15/6/2019 07:43

A win in a more core field. AP "will manage all operational and contractual requirements for Airbus' corporate shuttle flights" (28 a week operated by Loganair).
hxxps://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/air-partner-awarded-managed-services-contract-by-airbus-837911596.html
Major hype in the second para! "Air Partner's Managed Services team provides a range of professional, technical and commercial expertise that is available around the clock, 365 days a year". But do they here? Are they genuinely managing the contract or are they just a glorified travel agent booking Airbus staff on the flights?
Loganair started the service in March when there sister company went belly-up so its not like AP helped award the contract or are chartering the aircraft.
hxxps://airwaysmag.com/airlines/loganair-relaunches-defunct-flybmi-uk-routes/
Just like their Air Aurigny contract no value indicated.

[venek] 14/6/2019 15:14

BS seem to be adrift in a whole series of lucrative air line and aviation authority 'recovery' tasks:
Lufthansa Consulting in Turkmenistan
www.eturbonews.com/255297/turkmenistan-airlines-committed-to-achieve-compliance-with-international-air-safety-standards/
CAA International in Thailand
www.caainternational.com/caai-appointed-in-thailand/

[venek] 10/6/2019 19:28

But resigned as a director 1 June 2019 according to Companies House. Perhaps a figleaf of cover for AP failing to find someone with credible air traffic expertise to appoint for almost 18 months. Rather slack of them when Richard was already in his 70s. Perhaps something else that slid while they coped with the historic AP accounting disaster.

[pvb] 10/6/2019 18:53

Yeah. But Richard Barber retired in 2018.

[venek] 10/6/2019 16:30

Another founder departs, this time Richard Barber of Safeskys. No surprise as clearly a retirement.

[lukmanpatel] 10/6/2019 06:17

Another troll by the username lsehotdealz haha, share price is stagnant and there’s talks of fundraise at 10p on that board lol desperation has lead to going round posting on different board to prevent share price from dropping, usually ud stay quiet and average down and accumulate if you see huge potential lmaoo he’s spamming all the boards

[venek] 07/6/2019 10:00

hxxps://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/vista-global-snaps-up-jetsmarter-457438/

One large business jet operator buys a digital booking provider, whose app has already been downloaded 2 million times (the sale announced in April has just completed).

The buyer's founder says the acquisition is "an important milestone for Vista Global – accelerating and executing our vision of digitising the entire private aviation offering". Customers today want speed, reliability and value, he continues, "which in today’s world is only possible with technology".

AP seem dismissive of the threat of this technology. Perhaps they are right and their clients want a personal touch not a market place connection. Or perhaps they are like a London Cabbie rabbiting 10 years ago on that "no one will ever book a cab on line...".

Have AP taken their eye off the future of the core business at a critical juncture in the market with their misguided Training & Consulting adventure and accounting woes?

[venek] 06/6/2019 10:23

I’ve been able to confirm it’s not just Principle Consultants who have been fleeing AP's Baines Simmonds. A 15 year plus employee who was Head of Business Development has been poached by Oliver Wyman. OW are a major BS competitor who bought UK company Avisa, a BS look-alike company, a few years ago to add to their already large CAVOK portfolio.

www.oliverwyman.com/media-center/2017/sep/oliver-wyman-expands-technical-aviation-expertise-in-europe-with-avisa.html
cavok.oliverwyman.com

It looks like AP failed to put some golden handcuffs in place and a treasure trove of customer relationship knowledge has now walked straight into a competitor. The risk of losing people has been flagged by AP in at least two annual reports but they seem unable to actually control it.

Further research shows this individual was not just a BD person but also the company’s “subject matter specialist for EASA Part-145 and Part-M, Human Factors, Error Management, Just Culture and SMS” and represented BS on the European Human Factor Advisory Group.

I had actually been hoping a company like Oliver Wyman might take BS off AP's hands. Instead they might just grind them into the ground. Consulting is a people business and you can’t run the consulting engine on low grade fuel or an empty tank.

[venek] 05/6/2019 10:06

A long term Baines Simmonds customer, the New Zealand CAA, has been heavily criticised for poor oversight after a prosecution that followed an accident that killed 7.

www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2019/05/helicopter-operators-demand-complete-overhaul-of-aviation-safety-after-years-of-failures.html

Instead of turning to BS, PwC have now been brought in to do a large independent review.

Having highlighted the constant leakage of senior experts in the AP training and consulting division it now seems that another management departure I'd noticed a few months back is actually far more significant too. I'll post more when I've verified more on where they went.