Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Circle Property Plc LSE:CRC London Ordinary Share JE00BYP0CK63 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 157.50 53 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
150.00 165.00 157.50 157.50 157.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate Investment Trusts 6.88 15.25 0.53 297.2 44
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
08:42:06 O 53 164.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
14/4/202009:39Circle Property 20
25/2/201009:59CRC a valuation782
23/5/200809:36GedW's hotties-
15/9/200609:57Copper Resources Corporation - 'an exceptional opportunity'?794
05/4/200615:09CRC- THE NEW VOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!5

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Circle Property Daily Update: Circle Property Plc is listed in the Real Estate Investment Trusts sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CRC. The last closing price for Circle Property was 157.50p.
Circle Property Plc has a 4 week average price of 152.50p and a 12 week average price of 151p.
The 1 year high share price is 234p while the 1 year low share price is currently 151p.
There are currently 28,028,306 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 5,663 shares. The market capitalisation of Circle Property Plc is £44,144,581.95.
19joyns59: To be honest I have no idea as to what is happening here. With the stock in the 160s there seems to be no relationship to the pricing of the Metorex bid. My guess is that there is someone out there building a competing position with Metorex. It could be Glencore, who if you remember were at one point going to be given a substantial stake in the company (via a new share issue). if no-one is there is no rationale to the current share price. Having been in since 40p I sold most of my holding recently at 146p, but I still retain some, but am likely to sell them as soon as I can, given price rise. Go the Metorex or CRC site for all the background info relating to the offer. The risk is that Metorex will get sufficient acceptances to enable it to make a mandatory offer for all outstanding stock and then you'll get 125p or stock equivalent. Given the current share price this would not be clever if you still hold. Take your pick. I don't know what your situation is, so difficult to provide any advice here. Everyone else on the BB seems to have lost interest.
princey0: Can anyone please help me understand the Metorex bid for Copper resources CRC. Does anyone know what happens if PI's don't accept either of the offers made by Metorex. Do we still keep our shares in CRC or are we forced to accept 125p cash or the 0.73s share of Metorex for every CRC share. Sorry if this is a stupid question but i've never been in this situation before!! Any help would me much appreciated. Regards Princey
19joyns59: Anyone got an update on this. Why did the share price rise by 20p on Friday, when Metorex's share price didn't really budge. On current offer it is either 125p cash or 0.73 per share of a Metorex share, which equates to just under the cash offer. Mid 140s it is not. Does someone know something I don't!
trouseredthelot: I agree with the collusion argument. That statement the company came out with a couple of weeks ago seemed designed to drive down the price, and yet someone just sat there all day picking up all the stock going, so that by the end of the day some 22mill shares had changed hands which equates to some 30% of the company. Its almost as if it were planned...? And get this...according to Fox Davies, the disclosure rules are different for non UK registered companies even if they are listed on AIM. Unbelievable but apparently true. You dont have to declare your interest until it gets to 29.9%!! But another interesting idea has occurred to me..what if Katanga Mining were to be accumulating ahead of a bid? George Forrest owns about 25% of Katanga and is currently under threat from aggressive stake building by CAMEC. If Katanga were to bid, it would (a) consolidate GF's position (b)create a world class DRC mining concern and (c) dilute CAMEC. Possible, n'est pas? For that matter, maybe CAMEC is agressively stake building also for the same reasons...They have big hedge fund support too.... The long and short of it is that this company is worth a helluva lot more than the current share price and it has been noted. Its all to play for...
stemis: Well, I guess my issue is that AIM is littered with 'elephant sized' 'massively undervalued' 'Company making' projects that are plagued by mis-management and result in a woeful share price performance. Care to share any names with us?
serpicouk: Well, I guess my issue is that AIM is littered with 'elephant sized' 'massively undervalued' 'Company making' projects that are plagued by mis-management and result in a woeful share price performance. Good projects in themselves do not offer good value to long term shareholders. It's the management that adds the value to the project. I have no doubts that the projects CRC hold are very good. However, the company told its investors that it was financed, that start up was on schedule to start by October and that de-watering was near completion. After a news blackout the truth emerged that the costs had been significantly miscalculated resulting in a probable additional placing. The higher costs mean the IRR has dropped from 80% to 52% at historic copper prices. The project schedule has slipped to an unclear point next year and de-watering was not near completion. Either the management were stupidly optimistic or they were economical with the truth. Both characteristics trouble me so I will wait to see how this develops over the next 6 months. Best of luck to those that hold.
pinhead3: I found this article on Kinsenda that indicates the breakeven point for Kinsenda is 68c/lb / $1,496 tonne (28c mining/processing 40c transport). At an initial production of 40,000 tonnes pa at the current Cu price $5,530 tonne that's revenue of $221.2m pa & gross profit of $161.4m pa/£82.8m (GM 72.9%)! CRC 75% share gives an initial £62.1m gross profit pa. I can't believe the market cap is still only £61.3m fully diluted, the first years GM alone! When capacity gets up to 54,000 tonnes pa the numbers become $299.6m revenue,$217.8m GP/£111.7m. CRC share £83.8m. Admittedly there's Admin, financing & tax to come off those numbers but still, once the revenue starts rolling in the share price will fly.
pinhead3: I've been doing so work around the Hinoba-an project based upon the HHPI 1998 feasibility study, re-creating it & varying the parameters. HHPI 1998 survey Hinoba-an - original criteria per AIM lising document. NPV project $243m Mine life 15 years Average production 56,000 tonnes pa (35K min 95K max) Total implied production 840,000 tonnes Capital $236m Operating costs $0.48c /lb 10% discount rate Long term price of copper$1.00/lb IRR 28% CRC share now 18.5% (92.5% X 20% JV) Long term USD:GBP rate 1.85 CRC share JV $45m / £24.3m / 40.1p ps / 32.2p fd ps. Additionally it was thought that precious metals would contribute $0.10 /lb but was not included in NPV as not enough work had been carried out. Increasing the Cu price to $1.25/lb (per Kinsenda) gave NPV $474m/ CRC share $87.6m / £47.4m / 78.2p ps / 62.9p fd ps. Operating costs will have increased since 1998. Philippines inflation has been approx 7% pa & the USD/PHP rate has increased from approx 40 to approx 50 over the period 1998-2006. Indexing that increases the operating costs per lb to $0.66 / lb. Increasing the operating costs + $1.25/lb copper price gave. NPV $308m/ CRC share $56.9m / £30.8m / 50.8p ps / 40.9p fd. The original survey did not include the top 15m & it is expected that the total resources at Hinoba-an will increase by approx 10%. This would increase the total production from 840,000 tonnes to 924,000 tonnes & potentially the mine life from 15 to 17 years. Increasing the total production & mine life gave (+ $1.25/lb + op costs $0.66/lb). NPV $331m / CRC share $61.2m / £33.1m / 54.6p ps / 44.0p ps fd. A substantial gold mineralisation has been found at Hinoba-an that will significantly improve the rate of return of the project. Original survey estimated that the Au would contribute $0.10 /lb to the project. Including $0.10 per lb gave (+$1.25/lb,+ op costs & 10% higher resources). NPV $427m /CRC share $79.0m / £42.7m / 70.5p ps / 56.7p fd. With Cu prices around the $3/lb mark it is conceivable that the long term Cu price used in the Q2 feasibility study could be as high as $1.50/lb (or 50% of current levels). Increasing the Cu price to $1.50 / lb (+ all above) gave. NPV $667m / CRC share $123.5m / £66.7m / £1.101 ps / £0.887 p fd. There is potentially even more upside to this project with scope for capital & operational cost reduction now that partners are in place who have infrastructure (smelter,etc) in the Philippines. If the copper price stayed at the current levels this would make this project worth £3.50 to CRC (£2.80 fd), although this is very unlikely over the next 15-18 years. Based on the HHPI survey Hinoba-an is worth 40p (or 32.3p fd) without any cost / time outlay for CRC & greatly reduced risk. I'd now reduce the discount risk on Hinoba-an to 10% from 40% giving a discounted value of 36.1p (or 29.1p) I expect that the survey in Q2 07 will included 10% higher resources, higher cu price, higher op costs & the Au contribution. On this basing Hinoba-an is worth minimum of 70.5p (or 56.7p fd). At this stage there is a higher degree of uncertainty on these changes so I'd apply a 20% discount. This gives a discounted valution of 56.4p (or 45.4p fd). With Kinsenda alone worth 90p (fully diluted & discounted at 15%) or approx the current sp, Hinoba-an a potential 45p asset (50% share price upside) is for free at these levels.
pinhead3: A quick calc on Hinoba-an CRC share 20% of 92.5% = 18.5% NPV project (1998) $243m CRC share $45m or £24.3m or 40p undiluted / 32.3p fully diluted. Now this may seem very low however bare in mind the following. 1998 study based on $1/lb copper price, Kinsenda 25% higher & current price is over 3 times higher. Excludes gold deposits, expected big improvement to return. Reserves (when update is finally provided!) are expected to increase by 10% There will not be any dilution for share issues,etc for funding Risk of this project is now dramatically reduced. So in short CRC's potential return on Hinoba-an is 80% down but the chances of realising it & the timescale (IMO) have greatly improved. Fair value now even just on Kinsenda (90p) & Hinoba-an (32p) is £1.22p & that's based on fully diluted NPV project calculations with very low copper prices. I wonder what will happen with the share price tomorrow?
pinhead3: After collating a fair amount of info on CRC this weekend I put together valuations for the whole company using the current shares in issue, fully diluted shares (after options) & a discounted valuation using my personal risk for each project.You can ignore the discount or use your own. Current shares in issue 46.794m Fully diluted shares 51.448m Exchange rate $1.75/£1 MMK – Congo (Kinsenda) 1.848 bn lbs of copper resources (5.3%). From the recent RNS a NPV for the project was determined at $143m based on copper at $1.25/lb, 13 year life, 10% discount & IRR 67%.Capital investment $38m. Management expect the resources & life of the mine to be considerably extended., currently they are looking at the project plan to additionally increase payback. As the mine is currently submerged & given other risks involved detailed below I would discount Kinsenda at 20% of fully diluted price as a reasonable target for 2006. Valuations Current shares £1.75 Fully diluted £1.59 Discounted £1.27 (2006 valuation - now) MMK – Congo (Misoshi) 1.276 bn lbs of copper resources (2.4%). With the Misoshi & Kinsenda mines being only 40km apart & sharing good infrastructure I believe that the NPV valuation of Kinsenda is a good guide for valuing Misoshi, even though the copper concentration in the ore is less than half of Kinsenda many of the refining assets should be able to be shared that should improve the NPV. Misoshi has 69% of the copper resources of Kinsenda so a NPV as a starting point of $99m seems fair. Given the additional uncertainty I would discount Misoshi at 40%. Initial production has been stated at 4,000 tonnes pa, I don't expect that to be increased until 2007/08 when Kinsenda is up & running. Capital investment at Misoshi is unknown but should be substantially lower than Kinsenda. Valuations Current shares £1.21 Fully diluted £1.10 Discounted £0.44 (2008 valuation) MMK – Congo (Lubembe) 2.000 bn lbs of copper resources (2.2%). Unlike Kinsenda & Misoshi Lubembe is a green site with little drilling so far, as a consequence I wasn't able to find as much information. I've assumed the same rationale on Lubembe as Misoshi with Lubembe having 119% of copper resources as Kinsenda giving a starting NPV of $170.2m. With the additional unknown factors I've increased the discount on Lubembe to 50%. Capital requirements are unknown. I don't expect much development until 2008. Valuations Current shares £2.08 Fully diluted £1.89 Discounted £0.95 (2008 valuation) Haib – Namibia estimated 2.000 bn lbs of copper resources (0.37%) CRC share 60% = 1.200 bn lbs. METS review process is currently underway & due in May 2006 a feasibility study will then be carried out & finalised by the end of 2007 producing a bankable resource value. Haib is a deep mine similar to the Congo & has been drilled previously. Until the feasibility study it is difficult to put a value on Haib unless you use the Kinsenda NPV as a guide. Haib has an estimated copper resource of 108% of Kinsenda giving a starting NPV of $155m,CRC own 60% currently reducing that to $92.9m. Given the additional uncertainty I would currently discount Haib at 60%, a full valuation won't be available until the end of 2007. CRC share increases by 10% on spending $1.0m & potentially to 90%. Valuations Current shares £1.13 Fully diluted £1.03 Discounted £0.41 (2007 valuation) Hinoba-an (Phillipines) 2.000 bn of copper resources (0.373%) CRC share 92.5%. HHPI 1998 study gave the project an NPV of $268m using $1.00/lb for copper, 20 year life, 10% discount & IRR 28%.Capital investment estimated at $268m. Bankable schedule is due at the end of 2006, is already 25% complete & is looking like increasing the reserves by 10%. HHPI study excluded the top 15m of the side as assumed did not contain copper resources, during the current study copper has been found in the top 15m. A 3% royalty is due on all copper sold which would amount to $60m on the above, assumed not to be included in the 1998 study. CRC 92.5% share would then give a base NPV of $169.3m. Until the revised study is complete at end 2006 I would discount Hinoba-an at 50%. Deposits of gold, silver & molybendeum have also been found at the site but have not yet been assessed. Valuations Current shares £2.07 Fully diluted £1.88 Discounted £0.94 (2006 valuation) Cash estimated as $9.4m Valuations Current shares £0.11 Fully diluted £0.10 Discounted £0.10 (2006 valuation) Upsides Current price of copper is considerably higher than used above $2.20 /lb. Kinsenda expected to last longer, have higher resources & have higher NPV. Hinoba-an already looking to be 10% higher plus possibility of gold, silver & Molybendum. Haib holding can be significantly increased by minimal outlay. Risks Political risk in Phillipines, Congo & Namibia Copper price may fall on failing Indian / Chinese economies. Lubembe & Haib unproven. Kinsenda & Misoshi are currently flooded so could hide unknown problems Huge capital required for projects. When taking the above into account you get the following valuations Current shares £8.35 Fully diluted £7.59 Discounted £4.11 As a short term (2006) target I would include Kinsenda, Hinoba-an & cash (from above) or £2.32. Based on Kinsenda alone we should be over £1 now. If the Hinoba–an bankable schedule comes in as expected £3 could be achievable by the end of 2006. If anyone has any comments, observations or can spot any errors let me know. I am very bullish about CRC prospects & as such have bought in as a long term hold, I expect a 5 fold increase by the end of 2008.
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