Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[trident5] 31/1/2020 17:46

They'll just get re-issued on more benign terms.

[venek] 31/1/2020 17:03

About time... Amazing how long this has taken after it was found that the accounts Biffa had been signing off were fundamentally flawed year after year.

[pvb] 31/1/2020 15:32

Air Partner PLC Cancellation of LTIP 2012 options

[pvb] 30/1/2020 16:59

...So now it's a coronavirus too? :-(

[venek] 27/1/2020 12:54

Still sliding and less than the share price when the accounting scandal hit.

[pvb] 23/1/2020 13:40

...So now it's 'the business', not just Briffa?

[venek] 23/1/2020 12:16

So the Charter business seem surprised by a softening in private jets (which has been visible to all market analysts and Swedish school children), not enough natural disasters inside the FY and most concerning, one big client changing direction.

It now looks like the half year ("a slow start but it'll ramp up") was either naively optimistic or potentially downright deceptive.

The repeated misinformation about opening 'new' offices that Biffa had previously closed has been exposed here already.

Considering the unreliability of AP's forecast I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger price fall yesterday.

Biffa's vanity acquisitions are heading for a 10% revenue increase. Well done, businesses with low margin (or in one case loss making) have upped their revenue. The question is how big is their drain on margin. They've dodge FlyBe's collapse but now its coronavirus adding to the continued delay in the 737 saga damping down growth in the airline sector this division depends heavily on. Uncertainly for UK aviation businesses will continue until the Brexit deal for 2021 onwards is clear.

It is very noteworthy that re-marketing is the ONLY area that AP can supply any real detail on their activities. There must be a real concern for their aircraft sales customers in future that AP will encourage ANY deal to sell their aircraft as the FY nears a close so AP can hit revenue targets (or at least miss less spectacularly).

The Board need to move decisively but like frogs in boiling water they seem to have become immune to this sort of shambles.

Who is foolish enough to step into Biffa's shoes before he has signed the accounts off?

[haywards26] 22/1/2020 21:37

Surely it is time for the CEO to go here....there is a total lack of confidence in him and his ability to grow AP...Under his tenure the business and share price has only gone one way! Yet spent millions on ill informed acquisitions..

[igbertsponk] 22/1/2020 09:42

Surprised they've not blamed 737MAX. Probably a growth driver covering other shortfalls.
This outfit never fails to disappoint.

[trident5] 22/1/2020 09:15

Have they blamed general elections before?

[sleepy] 22/1/2020 09:13

Extract from interims on 8 October last:

We expect Air Partner to deliver profits in the second half of the year in line with the first half of the year and to meet market expectations

”Underlying profits before tax” in first half were shown as £3.0 million

[phar lap] 22/1/2020 09:01

Update from N+1 Singer,

Today’s update highlights slower than expected trading within Air Partner’s Charter division in Q4, resulting in a shortfall against previous profit expectations. Visibility is always fairly limited and activity in the UK was impacted by the December General Election and resultant uncertainty, which now looks to have cleared. Adjusted PBT is expected to be £4.3m in FY20 (year ending 31st Jan), compared to our previous forecast of £5.5m and a prior year outturn of £5.8m. The outlook for FY21 is brighter, with sizeable business wins in the Charter division for delivery in H1’21 and good order coverage for the Safety & Security division. Safety & Security also stands to benefit from the first full year of the Redline acquisition. As a result, the Board remains confident in FY21 prospects, suggesting Q4 represents only a short term setback. We place our forecasts under review for now, and expect to publish revised forecasts reflecting today’s guidance in the coming days.

[sleepy] 22/1/2020 08:59

Extract from trading statement on 29 June last

While the operating environment remains challenging, impacted by increasing protectionism, Brexit and headwinds across the global aviation industry, the Board remains confident that Air Partner will achieve current market expectations. However, profits are likely to be more weighted to the second half than in previous years, owing to the timing of major contracts.

[venek] 13/1/2020 09:26

Flybe wobbling on the brink.
If they go business will slump at many regional airports.
Not a good time to have bought an airport security training business.

[wildshot] 10/1/2020 13:01

I've noticed that Keith Ashworth Lord in his Buffetology fund has been slowing reducing his position here. Having read his most recently monthly newsletter there might be a reason why.

In recent months the Buffetology fund completely withdrew its holdings of Driver (est. mkt cap of £70M) due to restrictions on the fund rules as to % holding in a share (that is being a significant shareholder stake in the share, say 20% of the market cap etc). He stated that he still saw Driver as a good business and investment.

With Air Partner at a market cap of c. £96m might the same situation apply? The Buffetology fund is consistently growing in value through performance and new money added.

(Note: market cap estimates sourced from a different website to this one.)

[venek] 20/12/2019 14:30

The dilemma of AP. Yes they are an LSE listed plc but they are at the higher risk, lower resilience, lower competence end, with opaque workings, unforthcoming IR and undemanding shareholders who put up with their fuzzy vision and amateurish execution year in and year out.

In fact as we approach the end of the year their share price is still BELOW the level they fell to immediately after the financial scandal was admitted!

[trident5] 20/12/2019 12:53

Sharw - didn't realise that they'd formally announced they'd be coming out of microcaps - not very sensible to forewarn the market.

All three have their problems too, and all three seem poorly managed.

[sharw] 20/12/2019 12:30

The S de L Buffettology fund has grown so large that small companies have become of little consequence so in June they announced that they would discontinue microcaps, defined as below £100m mcap. They held three. On Wednesday they sold their entire 16% holding in DRV. The third is RBG where they sold down from 18.7% to 17% in July but have not sold since.

[trident5] 20/12/2019 11:01

More selling from Sanford Deland.

[pvb] 16/12/2019 18:36

...Time will tell. ;-)

[venek] 16/12/2019 17:56

Nice they mention “Redline also has good forward visibility of its forecasted revenues”. Hopefully AP has better visibility than they did purchasing SafeSkys! I see they are still trotting out the optimistic old tropes about synergies with their existing brands (well maybe it will work this time).

So now there is a re-organisation to create a “Safety & Security Division” to put Redline and all the prior poor performing purchases together. Significantly the co-founder and CEO of Redline will head that, reporting directly to Biffa, presumably resulting in an effective demotion for BS’s MD.

This is either going to put some much needed management focus on the financial drain that is AP’s training and consulting business OR add tensions between safety and fatigue consultants and managers used to dealing security search trainers.

I’m still undecided if this purchase was really:
a) as much about buying in expertise in managing this type of business (that AP have shown sorely lack) - good
b) a move to create some competition between suitable division heads prior to Biffa pulling the ripcord and bailing out (next year he will have been in post for 10 years)- better
c) a ploy to make the whole division a more attractive purchase so AP can finally liquidate their non-core money draining acquisitions - even better

[venek] 12/12/2019 18:01

pvb thanks for the correction.

100% with trident 5 on AP's inept purchases

So Mobeus seemed to have turned £3.7 million to 9 million value in 3 years. So all the low hanging fruit and most of that on the upper branches have been harvested.

www.mobeus.co.uk/news/mobeus-secures-redline-trade-sale-air-partner-plc

Its much bigger than BS or Safeskys.
Employees
2016 85
2017 94 (up)
2018 105 (up)
2019 95 (down)

They are in a crowded market. There are 170 companies approved in the UK alone suggesting too that barriers to entry are low.
hxxps://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/Standard_Content/Commercial_industry/Security/CAA%20Registered%20Training%20Providers%20List.pdf

Yes its the only ICAO centre in the UK but its one of 35 internationally with Ireland France and Belgium all hosting competitors.

[trident5] 12/12/2019 16:17

Profits at Baines Simmons in the 4 years since they acquired it total about £600k. It cost £6m.

Clockwork Research were making profits of over £300k when they bought it - now barely breaking even.

Safeskys is now losing money.

The base case seems to be that AP are not adept at acquisitions but believe otherwise.

[sleepy] 12/12/2019 15:45

It would be good to have someone knowledgeable comment on this acquisition

It looks to me as if Redline was valued at £3.7 million in 2016 when it employed 85 people but I may be missing something

That doesn’t look too unreasonable to me but why is it costing £9 million (or more) now?