Admiral Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:33

depends on fy profit, H1 was 43p eps.....so I plumped for H2 37p, giving 80p eps and a per of 10.5...

[senator] 09/11/2011 10:30

Dean,

Agreed ref Div AT THIS LEVEL. I was more concerned that I was sat at £12.50 per share and sold at more than £1.00 loss per share. That is why I would (and probably will) cautiouslt accumulate at this level. I expect it to drift slightly lower in the coming days but much of that will depend on the wider market.

Last years profit was £266 million.

Add 10% and expect 2011 profit to be in region of £293 million.

Almost 271 millions shares outstanding @ £8.40 = £2.28Bn

£293 million profit divided by MC of £2.28Bn = PE of just over 12.

I stand by to be corrected.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:27

shorts have to close yet, plenty of scope on a grim day across the markets....but the time will come...

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:21

Senator, dividend yield is extremely tempting at these levels....just for that alone

[senator] 09/11/2011 10:13

Further to my last, I see todays PE Ration is between 11 and 12 down from around 16-18. I see this as being reasonable and perhaps slightly higher than the industry average (may need clarification).

The issue is the rise in personal injury claims - if anything I see this becoming more prevelant going forward - many more chancers taking advantage of the no win, no fee offers.

Not sure where this will go in the near term and the longer term depends on the industry tacking the claim culture which is forming.

IMHO of course.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 10:11

hefty per, what 6-7??

[senator] 09/11/2011 10:04

I see a couple of problems:

1. They carry a fairly heafty PE ratio meaning that they MUST sustain excellent growth - clearly the market sees their growth as being unsustainable and have made an appropriate adjustment - I tend to agree that growth will slow.

2. The personal injury claim culture is not yet fully mature so has more room to grow. Where people see an opportunity to make a few £K with little/no risk of incurring costs then they will - this is a risk factor across the industry and is not Admiral specific but I am not sure what the industry intends to do to tackle the issue (lets be honest until recently the culture of selling details of crash victims within the industry was crazy!!).

I jumped ship a couple of days ago (put my funds in GKP which looked good yesterday - not so great today) having taken a loss which was, in part, mitigated by the Dividend.

I certainly see the £16/£17 days a thing of the past for some considerable time.

That said, I may begin putting in a few £K here and there, beginning an accumulation phase but being cautious as to when I buy.

Be cautious - no advice intended etc.

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 09:56

Why do you think it would always fail?

[kibes] 09/11/2011 09:49

Can't quite see why the market has suddenly come to its senses on this one. What is so bad about this report? I have always thought it would crash and burn at some stage, but why now?

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 09:28

crikey, where would it have been if they'd issued a full on profit warning....£5 probably

[the ballcock] 09/11/2011 09:18

Looking for £8 entry, very good buy at that.

[the ballcock] 09/11/2011 09:10

09 Nov Shore Capital Sell 859.25 - - Reiterates

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 09:08

reckon they're gonna still do over £300m fy profit....

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 09:07

personally i'm filling my boots...

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 09:06

from H1 results...just look at the numbers...and the last Director buy was in September, he bought £135k's worth, 10,000 @£13.50

H1 2011 Highlights
* Group profit before tax up 27% at GBP160.6 million (H1 2010: GBP126.9 million)
* Earnings per share up 28% at 43.3p (H1 2010: 33.7p)
* Record interim dividend up 20% at 39.1p per share (2010 interim: 32.6p)
* Group turnover* up 53% at GBP1.1 billion (H1 2010: GBP720.5 million)
* Group vehicle count up 33% to 3.15 million from 2.37 million at 30 June 2010
* International Car Insurance turnover up 45% to GBP53.9 million (H1 2010: GBP37.1
million) and vehicles up 53% to 236,000 (H1 2010: 154,000)
* Group net revenue up 43% at GBP425.1 million (H1 2010: GBP296.4 million)
* Employee Share Scheme - over GBP8 million of shares will be distributed to
over 5,700 staff based on the H1 2011 result

* Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share)
and Other Revenue

Comment from Henry Engelhardt, Chief Executive Officer
"Over GBP1 billion turnover in six months! It wasn't so long ago that we were
pleased to report over GBP1 billion turnover for a full year. This is an
incredible achievement and is credit to the hard work of everyone at Admiral.

make your own mind up!!! and a good divi too.

[owenski] 09/11/2011 09:02

Agreed Dean, doesn't matter what they're raking in if its going out the back door in claim payments. The statement ref, injury claims should cause concern here imo.

[ryandj2222] 09/11/2011 09:01

seems like overselling to me!

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 08:58

Greyseal

pends on your viewpoint...blueball is waiting for 350p before he buys.

maybe the IMS could be construed as a mild profit warning? notwithstanding that the numbers and balance sheet are quite strong.....and a company that can increase sales in this market, aint to be sniffed at....negative is the high claims rate, but to some extent that's out of their control.

[greyseal] 09/11/2011 08:41

New to this share.... is this a buying opportunity at these levels?

Still making good profits - just at the lower end of expectations!!!

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 08:41

20% fall was over the top imo......but this is a poor market, so 1000p

[deanroberthunt] 09/11/2011 08:39

you think therefore you is ....

[blueball] 09/11/2011 08:37

I think they are worth 350p dean.